ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

The convection-less flat edge to the NW side is probably the outline of the High on the storm. What I don't understand is why the High isn't pulling Gus WSW now? Is there a feature to Gus's NE that is puting equal pull on it causing it to even out and drift?

as I said about 10 times, it is too weak to feel the high. That's why it is moving WNW

[jlauderdal]

You can clearly see in this loop that it was drifting west and now seems to be more WNW heading for the big mountains of Eastern Cuba.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I can't see any movement in any direction.

I think everyone needs to walk away for a few hours and check back later.

yep, i am issuing a minimal frame count penalty

[ConvergenceZone]

I am getting quite frustrated at everyone claiming this thing is dead. An hour ago everyone was watching as normal and now suddenly its going to amount to nothing? I'm not a professional but I know that a storm doesn't die in an hour! Not when it is sitting over water again. The NHC track doesn't even have it getting back to hurricane strength until tomorrow sometime. Why is anyone going to be shocked that it is still a TS or even a TD today? Tomorrow afternoon if it looks dead, then we can start talking and predicting. People sure are jumpy!

Well, based upon what we have now, a weakening tropical storm that's about ready to go over CUBAN mountains....... What would you think?

[Meso]

I know this has been said lots before but, the system is weak now, yes. It is not in the best condition, but look at the heat potential in the area it's heading and with the shear in near future not going to do much damage to the system, it will likely intensify again. It just needs to get itself back together and then start the intensification process again, I feel like people can forget how rapidly a storm can intensify. So likely a good 12-18 hours of recovery and then intensification again.

Remember it spent an awful long time over Haiti.

Models are still calling for some steady intensification at first and then it really ramps up.Which is quite a possibility. There is no reasonn to run around calling for the end of the world, but there is definitely enough reason to watch it very carefully, as the chances of it just disappating is almost non-existant. Give it a bit of time.

PS : This storm is not on a weakening trend per say (not going to dissipate any time soon), it suffered due to land interaction and now will fluctuate a bit while it tries to get it's act together. It still has a good while over water before hitting Cuba, more than enough to intensify quite a bit.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[nolecaster]

I am getting quite frustrated at everyone claiming this thing is dead. An hour ago everyone was watching as normal and now suddenly its going to amount to nothing? I'm not a professional but I know that a storm doesn't die in an hour! Not when it is sitting over water again. The NHC track doesn't even have it getting back to hurricane strength until tomorrow sometime. Why is anyone going to be shocked that it is still a TS or even a TD today? Tomorrow afternoon if it looks dead, then we can start talking and predicting. People sure are jumpy!

I just think that's because an hour ago...well more like 2 hours ago, there was no recon in there yet. A few hours ago, people were seeing that it was still having troubles coming off Haiti, but we didn't fully know how weak it was until now.

You can't ignore the recon, and that's why everyone is so jumpy.

[twister]

The convection-less flat edge to the NW side is probably the outline of the High on the storm. What I don't understand is why the High isn't pulling Gus WSW now? Is there a feature to Gus's NE that is puting equal pull on it causing it to even out and drift?

as I said about 10 times, it is too weak to feel the high. That's why it is moving WNW

Bless your heart, Derek. These canes make us nuts, and speaking for myself, rightfully so post Katrina.

[Sanibel]

as I said about 10 times, it is too weak to feel the high. That's why it is moving WNW

Thanks, I see. Maybe that island land-locked location enhances the effect as well.

The current trop point on the visible floater is accurate of the center location.

I fully expect full recovery later this evening.

[caneman]

I'm shocked that people are shocked by this. No wonder GFS was picking up on much with this system. Some of the others weren't in the beginning either but GFDL throws a a bomb out there and everyone jumps on board. Remember folks try to look at all of the models and find happy medium on track and intensity. You will be closer to right and more sane when you do that.

NHC forcasted cat 3 before Cuba and Cat 3 in GOM...

NHC bases that on model input. I've doubted this system from the beginning. I mean come on we saw a nearly identical track with Fay and she nver live up to the intesity hype. Gustav still can but I believe it has another 24 hours and that is assuming he doesn't go over Cuba.

you're the expert... NHC should consult with you before posting forcasts...[/quote]



LOL Reef...you beat me to that comment[/quote]

LMAO. The newbies getting upset because their storm isn't developing. Hang there is still time for this one and many more storms to hope and root for.

[gatorcane]

I think there may be stronger winds in 95L at this point looking at the impressive satellite presentation:

[mutley]

I am getting quite frustrated at everyone claiming this thing is dead. An hour ago everyone was watching as normal and now suddenly its going to amount to nothing? I'm not a professional but I know that a storm doesn't die in an hour! Not when it is sitting over water again. The NHC track doesn't even have it getting back to hurricane strength until tomorrow sometime. Why is anyone going to be shocked that it is still a TS or even a TD today? Tomorrow afternoon if it looks dead, then we can start talking and predicting. People sure are jumpy!

Well, based upon what we have now, a weakening tropical storm that's about ready to go over CUBAN mountains....... What would you think?

According to the NHC track, it doesn't cross Cuba for a couple of days.

[ConvergenceZone]

I am getting quite frustrated at everyone claiming this thing is dead. An hour ago everyone was watching as normal and now suddenly its going to amount to nothing? I'm not a professional but I know that a storm doesn't die in an hour! Not when it is sitting over water again. The NHC track doesn't even have it getting back to hurricane strength until tomorrow sometime. Why is anyone going to be shocked that it is still a TS or even a TD today? Tomorrow afternoon if it looks dead, then we can start talking and predicting. People sure are jumpy!

Well, based upon what we have now, a weakening tropical storm that's about ready to go over CUBAN mountains....... What would you think?

According to the NHC track, it doesn't cross Cuba for a couple of days.

The new track will probably be updated shortly based upon it's movement now

[Noles2006]

DIE, Gustav, DIE!!!

That would be fantastic!

[kurtpage]

I am getting quite frustrated at everyone claiming this thing is dead. An hour ago everyone was watching as normal and now suddenly its going to amount to nothing? I'm not a professional but I know that a storm doesn't die in an hour! Not when it is sitting over water again. The NHC track doesn't even have it getting back to hurricane strength until tomorrow sometime. Why is anyone going to be shocked that it is still a TS or even a TD today? Tomorrow afternoon if it looks dead, then we can start talking and predicting. People sure are jumpy!

Well, based upon what we have now, a weakening tropical storm that's about ready to go over CUBAN mountains....... What would you think?

According to the NHC track, it doesn't cross Cuba for a couple of days.

The new track will probably be updated shortly based upon it's movement now[/quote]


I do not think that it will be updated for a few more hours....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If 95L developed what effect would that have on the ridge? And therefore
on Gustav's track?

Also, I am reading mixed reports in this thread. Is Gustav following
the 11 AM track or not? I cannot tell. My geography is not precise enough.

[twister]

DIE, Gustav, DIE!!!

That would be fantastic!

HERE HERE!! With you on that one!!

[ConvergenceZone]

I know that people are wondering why opinions on this storm are changing so fast, but keep in mind, that's going to happen when a storm is this close to land...a slight change in direction results in land interaction can be the difference between Intensification and *Poof*....and right now(as Derek says) looks like it's heading for eastern Cuba.......

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

DIE, Gustav, DIE!!!

That would be fantastic!

HERE HERE!! With you on that one!!

I wish for Gustav to die as well!

[hiflyer]

So lessee...

Cuban radar shows pretty much disorganized right now
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

The models are pretty much all lying down with each other
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif

Visible shows a little popping
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Looking at vapor one could be more concerned about what is going under Jamaica on a superficial look
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Not dead....but Haiti did a number...that is for sure. I agree with the come back for the 5am and see what is here.....once the Flight 2 data get's in. See that the G4 was canceled for the last 24hrs along with some p3 runs.....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

[haml8]

DIE, Gustav, DIE!!!

That would be fantastic!

HERE HERE!! With you on that one!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGFXGwHsD_A

[Jinkers]

DIE, Gustav, DIE!!!

That would be fantastic!

I would sure love to see that!!