ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[WhoDatNation]

Just spoke with some good pro mets...explaining different scenarios and what I got out of it was Galv-NOLA.

That's not really telling us anything

[RainWind]

LAwrxgal, what else is he saying? I am at work right now and have no tv access! Thanks! RW

[jinftl]

My grandmother in Metairie is already talking about going north to Jackson....people are not going to fool around with Gustav...even if he is just a potential threat.

State of emergency just declared for Louisiana by the governor. He's on local TV right now.

[LAwxrgal]

All he said was they had gallons of water available and if the storm stays on this path they may have to evacuate people as soon as Friday, and landfall may take place sometime on Monday, maybe Monday afternoon or early evening.

[bayoubebe]

My grandmother in Metairie is already talking about going north to Jackson....people are not going to fool around with Gustav...even if he is just a potential threat.

State of emergency just declared for Louisiana by the governor. He's on local TV right now.

Yes. In fact, I gassed up today, just in case, and there was quite a line, already. If you have not filled up your tank, you may want to consider doing that soon. Plus, I'm anticipating gas prices to start jumping up with this system.
Hotel arrangements also if needed. I have a relative who reseved 3 rooms in Jackson and the hotels are already getting packed with reservations. Be smart, get prepared.

[MJA]

Wonder if these big wigs are going to pass the message along to the NHC about the track change?

[HurricaneRobert]

Wonder if these big wigs are going to pass the message along to the NHC about the track change?

[KWT]

Looks like Gustav will finally leave the land interaction behind soon, that plus the shear have done a huge number on Gustav but given its a small system and given convection is still bursting quite readily I suspect we will see a good transformation in the nxt 24hrs, maybe not huge strengthening but the groundworks will be laid down IMO.

[MJA]

Wonder if these big wigs are going to pass the message along to the NHC about the track change?

See page 197 or so.

[Innotech]

My grandmother in Metairie is already talking about going north to Jackson....people are not going to fool around with Gustav...even if he is just a potential threat.

State of emergency just declared for Louisiana by the governor. He's on local TV right now.

Yes. In fact, I gassed up today, just in case, and there was quite a line, already. If you have not filled up your tank, you may want to consider doing that soon. Plus, I'm anticipating gas prices to start jumping up with this system.
Hotel arrangements also if needed. I have a relative who reseved 3 rooms in Jackson and the hotels are already getting packed with reservations. Be smart, get prepared.

the price of oil rose by 1$ bbl today. It will continue to rise because the storm is projected to go right through the most dense part of the oilfields. Pretty much every customer we have in southeastern louisiana is crying for increased fuel loads and its getting to a point where it is physically impossible to keep up with it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Current track avoids the warm water eddy, but puts it over an even warmer and deeper water than the warm water eddy.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Once Gustav, on that track, moves over the high heat water of the caribbean and then the gulf,
that hot water content is enough to increase by 2 categories, so if it is a category 2 after Cuba
it could easily hit Category 4 over the Gulf, and I can't rule out a Category 5 at this time.

PEOPLE ON THE CURRENT PATH NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS. THE LOUISIANA STATE OF EMERGENCY
WAS DECLARED FOR A SERIOUS REASON.

[imetrice]

Alexandria-Pineville Hotel/Motel Association officials report today that local hotels are full in anticipation of Tropical Storm Gustav.


“We filled up,” Dee Dean, with the hotel/motel association said, adding that her hotel began filling around 7 a.m. Tuesday. “By noon we were full and most of Alexandria was full.”


The Town Talk in Alexandria states that hotels are just about full. I know it is still early, but, it is much better than being too late. With Katrina, many people had to go as far north as Arkansas to get a hotel, if they could survive that traffic.

[KWT]

Heat content would suggest this certainly could become a top end hurricane though whether or not it makes it is of course going to be another matter.

Still Gustav looks likely to make it to hurricane force, not sure why the statistical models are so against that idea...

[HURRICANELONNY]

I would guess New Orleans is justified in giving a State Of Emergency. All it really allows is New Orleans/Lousiana to get Fed aid. If needed. And to get people ready just in case. They did it here in Florida for Fay. If and when it enters the Gulf. The NHC should have a better fix to where it will go. But till then. Everyone from Mexico to Florida should be on guard.

[Portastorm]

Just spoke with some good pro mets...explaining different scenarios and what I got out of it was Galv-NOLA.

Wow. They must be really GOOD pro mets to narrow down a zone with confidence, especially considering the highly respected pro mets on S2K and our National Hurricane Center are all saying right now that the landfall forecast at day 5 and beyond remains highly speculative.

I'll put Stewart, or Franklin, or Wxman57, or Air Force Met, or Derek Ortt up against them any day!

[HouTXmetro]

How fast is the motion? 5PM update says 3mph, somone mention 12-13 mph earlier.

[Nederlander]

if the bigwigs that Warrior is talking about are who I think they are, then they are mets with many many years of experience... not saying any one person or model is right, but i was beginning to get complacent until now....

[KWT]

HouTXmetro, recon suggests its foward speed has increased a fair amount in the last couple of hours as it finally gets under the influence of the upper ridge, motion is also pretty much due west.

HURRICANELONNY, indeed everywhere needs to watch Gustav closely.

[RainWind]

Now listening to talk radio locally and it sounds like people in New Orleans and Baton Rouge are taking this very seriously. Local officials are saying that they are prepared for the worst and hoping for the best! Glad to hear this! RW

Oh, thanks Lawrxgal for the update awhile ago.

[luvcanescarol]

I have one question, from an avid amateur hurricane watcher who is trying every day to learn all I can from this site. What factor/s could impede Gustav's growth from this point on? Is it possible it just stays small and weakens?