ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[stormchazer]

You have got to wonder after all the doomsday scenarios and nashing of teeth, if Gus is not going to fool us all and just go dare I say "poof"! This is why I love watching these storms. There is always the chance of a big suprise.

IMHO, Poof is a very, very good thing. It does look bad tonight but I have seen worse looking systems rebound and rebound quickly. I think we are still very much in a watch and see mode and the next day or so will tell the tale.
Tim

No doubt "poof" is a good thing. My sister is in Gulfport, MS sweating bullets. They own a business that counts on the port for their livelyhood. Poof would be a great thing, though I agree it is likely wishful thinking.

[vaffie]

I'm pretty convinced it's gonna come back tonight and surprise all of us in the morning. It's comeback, as comebacks usually go, will start out very meager and almost unnoticable. I think it has begun. In the last 10 minutes a small but strong thunderstorm has popped up over the center and is slowly growing. All it will take is a clear center over the loop current south of Cuba, and this thing will be off to the races in no time. For the record, though perhaps accused of -removed- (in defense, the last thing I want the next few days is to have a menacing hurricane approaching), I seriously doubt this storm will plow through the high pressure and make landfall any further east than New Iberia, Louisiana.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[latemodel25]

IMHO it is not a good idea to leave Gustav for dead until NHC/TPC declares it dead...

oh absolutely! that is law as far as im concerned but its nice to get info off this site ahead of time that definately comes to light a good deal of the time. I understand that its just as important to be able to read these posts and understand just what it is your reading. Thanks!

[cpdaman]

Since it is not looking very good right now should NO declare a state of emergency so soon...

Louisiana Officials Declare State of Emergency in Advance of Gustav
Wednesday, August 27, 2008

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,411862,00.html

i don't know enough about these things, but i think it has to do with getting the decleration in quickly so that funds from the gov't will be ready as soon as possible and be able to aid in clean up without delay.............of course there will be some false alarms but this is just the way it has to go

[AL Chili Pepper]

I don't see any hint of a circulation anywhere near the forecast points or north of the island, and that band of convection to the west seems to have detached from any LLC.

[Weather Watcher]

Since it is not looking very good right now should NO declare a state of emergency so soon...

Louisiana Officials Declare State of Emergency in Advance of Gustav
Wednesday, August 27, 2008

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,411862,00.html

i don't know enough about these things, but i think it has to do with getting the decleration in quickly so that funds from the gov't will be ready as soon as possible and be able to aid in clean up without delay.............of course there will be some false alarms but this is just the way it has to go

Thanks for replying.

[rockyman]

I don't see any hint of a circulation anywhere near the forecast points or north of the island, and that band of convection to the west seems to have detached from any LLC.

New convective burst almost over center (not yet showing up on SSD's floater):

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

He looks terrible. Good news for LA though. Definitely a depression by 11pm. It looks so bad, I hope he degenerates to a tropical wave.

[Wx_Warrior]

We all laffed at the GFS...hmm....

Gustav will survive...Cuban cigar stuck in the windpipe.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

Well, we'll have to see, but, if the mountains of Haiti have killed this system, we need to seriously analyze what these things do to the general public. People need to understand what this is doing to New Orleanians. I have a friend who manages a hotel who had employees in his office today crying. I work at a bank. I had lines of people in my branch today cashing checks for $10,000.00 to be prepared because they didn't get cash "for Katrina." We barely had enough money before we closed. The residents of New Orleans have been in panic mode today over a storm in Haiti. Not saying this is bad and we still don't know the future, but, this serves as a lesson in what we are doing to the general public. The governor of the State of Louisiana declared an official State of Emergency in Louisiana today at 5:00PM. Now, if this system comes back and plows towards Louisiana we know that this is a good thing, but, if it doesn't then we need to seriously analyze how we handle these systems in the future with the general public. I have another friend in New Orleans who called their physician to get a prescription of Ativan sent to the neighborhood Rite Aid. We have to be cautious with the public. I posted an entire thread on this board on another forum about how New Orleans is not ready for a hurricane and is truly VERY scared of these systems.

[twister]

You have got to wonder after all the doomsday scenarios and nashing of teeth, if Gus is not going to fool us all and just go dare I say "poof"! This is why I love watching these storms. There is always the chance of a big suprise.

IMHO, Poof is a very, very good thing. It does look bad tonight but I have seen worse looking systems rebound and rebound quickly. I think we are still very much in a watch and see mode and the next day or so will tell the tale.
Tim

POOF would be awesome!! We can watch the LSU game in peace. Walk the plank Gus!!

[cheezyWXguy]

I think its actually starting to show signs of reorganization as we speak. New convective bursts close to the center, and convection on the southwest side is streaming rapidly towards the center. This will likely maintain at 35-45 mph over night tonight and then begin to restrengthen tomorrow, though I dont expect a hurricane until Friday.

[KatDaddy]

Potential for a powerhouse storm still exists for the GOM. Hopefully Gustav will fade away with no harm but its way to early to tell. As long as there is convection and a LLC headed WNW toward the GOM it should be taken seriously in late August.

[LSU2001]

I think its actually starting to show signs of reorganization as we speak. New convective bursts close to the center, and convection on the southwest side is streaming rapidly towards the center. This will likely maintain at 35-45 mph over night tonight and then begin to restrengthen tomorrow, though I dont expect a hurricane until Friday.

Yeah,
I am seeing the same things. That little burst of convection right of the tip of Hati does not look too encouraging for people like myself hoping Gus had impaled himself on the mountains and inflicted a fatal injury. But like I always say "Time will tell"
Tim

[HURAKAN]

Mismatched?

[twister]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

Well, we'll have to see, but, if the mountains of Haiti have killed this system, we need to seriously analyze what these things do to the general public. People need to understand what this is doing to New Orleanians. I have a friend who manages a hotel who had employees in his office today crying. I work at a bank. I had lines of people in my branch today cashing checks for $10,000.00 to be prepared because they didn't get cash "for Katrina." We barely had enough money before we closed. The residents of New Orleans have been in panic mode today over a storm in Haiti. Not saying this is bad and we still don't know the future, but, this serves as a lesson in what we are doing to the general public. The governor of the State of Louisiana declared an official State of Emergency in Louisiana today at 5:00PM. Now, if this system comes back and plows towards Louisiana we know that this is a good thing, but, if it doesn't then we need to seriously analyze how we handle these systems in the future with the general public. I have another friend in New Orleans who called their physician to get a prescription of Ativan sent to the neighborhood Rite Aid. We have to be cautious with the public. I posted an entire thread on this board on another forum about how New Orleans is not ready for a hurricane and is truly VERY scared of these systems.

So true, Sean. My elderly mother is scared to death. I'm still watching Gus til he meets his demise.

[KatDaddy]

That was an older map of the forecast path. Its shifted eastward.

[dixiebreeze]

Gustav is just doing what most storms do when confronted with high land elevation. There is little doubt in my mind (with S2K for more than 5 years and 'cane watcher before that), that he will rebound in a robust manner before the night is over.

[Wx_Warrior]

HURAKAN....You beat me to it...from my understanding, JB doesn't agree with that track..

[canetracker]

I think its actually starting to show signs of reorganization as we speak. New convective bursts close to the center, and convection on the southwest side is streaming rapidly towards the center. This will likely maintain at 35-45 mph over night tonight and then begin to restrengthen tomorrow, though I dont expect a hurricane until Friday.

Agree! Just go look at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/tropic.php and you will see this is in favorable conditions sheer wise, sheer tendancy wise and convergence wise. Besides the SST's just ahead and the loop current it may be encountering soon does not indicate a "Poofed System". Time will tell, but I dont think we have seen the last of Gustav yet. Opinions Welcome.