ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I see it clearly moving WSW...About due west of the tip of haiti.

The IR loops I've seen tonight make Gus look quite pitiful. more convection under jamacia than near Gus.. hardly no convection near the center at all ATTM... hard for me to accept that the NHC could nail such a forecast over 5 days out and the direct NOLA hit comes to fruition... got to go either west or east, it just has to, the law of averages has to pan out for the MS coast, we can't get majors every three years, that's insane..... and if not then this would be the greatest hurricane forecast of all times by the NHC or perhaps just lucky... maybe wishful thinking on my part... I've seen panic in many of my friends faces throughout the day.. I am talking real fear, something that I don't think I've ever seen before.. ... some to point of tears.. the MS coast can't take another major, I can't imagine how long this could add to the already slow Katrina recovery... all the hype from the media and local gov't agencies only adds to the pain.. this makes me sick

Maybe the Media will learn a lesson from this Frank, probably not, but wishful thinking. I know what you mean though....One of the radio personel I was listening to stated, "will it be another Katrina, or will it be worse?"....I just wanted to slap him...

[Brent]

I think its actually starting to show signs of reorganization as we speak. New convective bursts close to the center, and convection on the southwest side is streaming rapidly towards the center. This will likely maintain at 35-45 mph over night tonight and then begin to restrengthen tomorrow, though I dont expect a hurricane until Friday.

I just noticed that. Still very unimpressive but it is a sign of life. D-Max is coming up overnight too, so let's see what it looks like in the morning.

[Sabanic]

Mismatched?

Includes much more northern/central gulf coast than accu's earlier cone

[Annie Oakley]

345 guests on this site tonight -kudos to Storm2kfor the info....now, that being said-everyone calm down! NHC is doing their job. Storm2k is relaying the FACTS,

[latemodel25]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

Well, we'll have to see, but, if the mountains of Haiti have killed this system, we need to seriously analyze what these things do to the general public. People need to understand what this is doing to New Orleanians. I have a friend who manages a hotel who had employees in his office today crying. I work at a bank. I had lines of people in my branch today cashing checks for $10,000.00 to be prepared because they didn't get cash "for Katrina." We barely had enough money before we closed. The residents of New Orleans have been in panic mode today over a storm in Haiti. Not saying this is bad and we still don't know the future, but, this serves as a lesson in what we are doing to the general public. The governor of the State of Louisiana declared an official State of Emergency in Louisiana today at 5:00PM. Now, if this system comes back and plows towards Louisiana we know that this is a good thing, but, if it doesn't then we need to seriously analyze how we handle these systems in the future with the general public. I have another friend in New Orleans who called their physician to get a prescription of Ativan sent to the neighborhood Rite Aid. We have to be cautious with the public. I posted an entire thread on this board on another forum about how New Orleans is not ready for a hurricane and is truly VERY scared of these systems.

no offense but anyone living below sea level with levys in deplorable condition should be afraid. price to pay livin in and around NO. better to be prepared 24/7. that pretty much goes for anyone living on the gulf, atlantic, pacific and so on and so forth. not a matter of if but when. total fact

[txwatcher91]

Remember everyone, recon found a 999mb pressure and a well defined LLC just a few hours ago. Just because it doesn't look good now doesn't mean it won't in the coming days. Here are the favorable factors that I see. I see a potential Cat 3 or 4 when it enters the GOM, I have seen too many times how a sheared LLC from weaker systems has survived and when it entered warm waters and less shear it rapidly developed. Katrina, Andrew, Bertha, etc. are a few examples I can think of. If this didn't have an LLC I would agree, but an LLC and 999mb pressure with high heat content and low shear is a perfect combo for RO and RI.
High TCHP: Check
Low shear: Check
Over water: Check
Good outflow: Check
Strong LLC: Check
Low pressure: Check
DMAX ahead: Check
Burst of convection: Check

[gboudx]

no offense but anyone living below sea level with levys in deplorable condition should be afraid. price to pay livin in and around NO. better to be prepared 24/7. that pretty much goes for anyone living on the gulf, atlantic, pacific and so on and so forth. not a matter of if but when. total fact

Wow. No offense indeed.

[cpdaman]

perhaps jamaica will deal him his "death blow".....he does seem to be "dizzy" and wobbling WSW.....perhaps gus could walk the jamican plank

NOTE I do not think this is likely, only possible and please continue to prepare based on the NHC's forecast

[latemodel25]

i truly didnt mean to ruffle any feathers but its true. well let me take that back, have they taken care of the levy problems for the nxt storm? they may have and if so please accept my apology for posting without researching 1st..

[gboudx]

I think the levee issue has been discussed on this board somewhere. Maybe do some research and check on it.

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In my opinion the center has been drifting SW and because the high mountains are disrupting the flow around the east side Gustav is really suffering. As Gustav moves further west we should see it recover, if there's anything left. It's interesting to note that Gustav was in better shape after it cross Haiti and before it headed west near these 6K feet mountains. For whatever reason high terrain to the south or east of a storm seems to have a more pronounced effect. Has anyone studied this? Is that an accurate observation?

[LSU2001]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

Well, we'll have to see, but, if the mountains of Haiti have killed this system, we need to seriously analyze what these things do to the general public. People need to understand what this is doing to New Orleanians. I have a friend who manages a hotel who had employees in his office today crying. I work at a bank. I had lines of people in my branch today cashing checks for $10,000.00 to be prepared because they didn't get cash "for Katrina." We barely had enough money before we closed. The residents of New Orleans have been in panic mode today over a storm in Haiti. Not saying this is bad and we still don't know the future, but, this serves as a lesson in what we are doing to the general public. The governor of the State of Louisiana declared an official State of Emergency in Louisiana today at 5:00PM. Now, if this system comes back and plows towards Louisiana we know that this is a good thing, but, if it doesn't then we need to seriously analyze how we handle these systems in the future with the general public. I have another friend in New Orleans who called their physician to get a prescription of Ativan sent to the neighborhood Rite Aid. We have to be cautious with the public. I posted an entire thread on this board on another forum about how New Orleans is not ready for a hurricane and is truly VERY scared of these systems.

no offense but anyone living below sea level with levys in deplorable condition should be afraid. price to pay livin in and around NO. better to be prepared 24/7. that pretty much goes for anyone living on the gulf, atlantic, pacific and so on and so forth. not a matter of if but when. total fact

Sean,
I think the extreme reactions to the announcements is exactly what the officials were hoping for. If you remember correctly with Katrina many people downplayed the storm including the Mayor, and unnamed local mets. The were crippled with the "wait and see approach" If I remember correctly you yourself did not leave the city even when a mandatory evac was called but instead held up in a french quarter hotel. Quite a few people were partying in the bars the Sat. night before landfall and Sunday morning people were lining up to get into the Dome.

IMHO, Gov. Jindal does not want to see a repeat of that same laid back attitude and I personally feel that being truthful and open about the possibilites does not "harm" anyone. In fact I believe that everyone in South Louisiana should prepare for the worst and pray for the best. If Gus goes poof and its a lot of fuss about nothing then great. If , however, Gus restrengthens and threatens the GC the the people have prepped well in advance. All in all I give the Officials in LA. an A+ so far.
JMHO,
TIm

[Wx_Warrior]

Media, it's all about ratings....They will say what they need to, to keep you hooked to that channel and not turn to another newscast.

Do you really think you will hear: "Gustav, models are all over the place, who knows what will go on, plus will flushing your toilet more than once after a sitting cause migraines?..that and Jim Stevens is live from the cat show, tonight at 10"....

[cpdaman]

makes sense tolakram, now check out jamaica's geography

and i love jim stevens and his cat show LMAO that is life on planet earth

[Sean in New Orleans]

latemodel25, I'll make it blunt and clean. Before you post on a public forum, you need to be sure and have your facts straight. I'm really politely telling you to not embarrass yourself. You posted a non-truth on this forum.

[txwatcher91]

One interesting note, cuban radar shows the circulation moving SW right now. Anyone else seeing this?

[ConvergenceZone]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

Well, we'll have to see, but, if the mountains of Haiti have killed this system, we need to seriously analyze what these things do to the general public. People need to understand what this is doing to New Orleanians. I have a friend who manages a hotel who had employees in his office today crying. I work at a bank. I had lines of people in my branch today cashing checks for $10,000.00 to be prepared because they didn't get cash "for Katrina." We barely had enough money before we closed. The residents of New Orleans have been in panic mode today over a storm in Haiti. Not saying this is bad and we still don't know the future, but, this serves as a lesson in what we are doing to the general public. The governor of the State of Louisiana declared an official State of Emergency in Louisiana today at 5:00PM. Now, if this system comes back and plows towards Louisiana we know that this is a good thing, but, if it doesn't then we need to seriously analyze how we handle these systems in the future with the general public. I have another friend in New Orleans who called their physician to get a prescription of Ativan sent to the neighborhood Rite Aid. We have to be cautious with the public. I posted an entire thread on this board on another forum about how New Orleans is not ready for a hurricane and is truly VERY scared of these systems.

no offense but anyone living below sea level with levys in deplorable condition should be afraid. price to pay livin in and around NO. better to be prepared 24/7. that pretty much goes for anyone living on the gulf, atlantic, pacific and so on and so forth. not a matter of if but when. total fact

I agree with you. I have a couple of cousins who live down to the west of New Orleans and they know that they pay the price for living down there and they know the risks it brings....Believe me, I rub it into their heads all the time....Now I know that with some folks it's tough. You have to live somewhere and sometimes your job makes you live where you don't want to live, plus homeless and elderly can't just relocate that easily.....I feel bad for those people...But some folks have a lot more of a choice than others......I would hate to see Gustav or any cane for that matter pay them another visit... okay back on topic here, I think we will know MUCH more by tomorrow morning, and I"m sure the forecast from the NHC will be adjusted one way or the other....

[cheezyWXguy]

makes sense tolakram, now check out jamaica's geography

and i love jim stevens and his cat show LMAO that is life on planet earth

Center is not diving south with convection. It is near the northern burst of convection that just formed. Jamaica will likely not kill off the storm and will not affect it at all.

[latemodel25]

[Sean,
I think the extreme reactions to the announcements is exactly what the officials were hoping for. If you remember correctly with Katrina many people downplayed the storm including the Mayor, and unnamed local mets. The were crippled with the "wait and see approach" If I remember correctly you yourself did not leave the city even when a mandatory evac was called but instead held up in a french quarter hotel. Quite a few people were partying in the bars the Sat. night before landfall and Sunday morning people were lining up to get into the Dome.

IMHO, Gov. Jindal does not want to see a repeat of that same laid back attitude and I personally feel that being truthful and open about the possibilites does not "harm" anyone. In fact I believe that everyone in South Louisiana should prepare for the worst and pray for the best. If Gus goes poof and its a lot of fuss about nothing then great. If , however, Gus restrengthens and threatens the GC the the people have prepped well in advance. All in all I give the Officials in LA. an A+ so far.
JMHO,
TIm[/quote] I agree 100%. god forbid we ever see anything close to what this country saw in NO via Katrina.

[cpdaman]

makes sense tolakram, now check out jamaica's geography

and i love jim stevens and his cat show LMAO that is life on planet earth

Center is not diving south with convection. It is near the northern burst of convection that just formed. Jamaica will likely not kill off the storm and will not affect it at all.

cheezywxguy i was basing this on the observation of a wsw movement lately , never thought it was diving south and it will likely effect the Southern inflow of the storm (should he pass just north of the island)