ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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CrazyC83
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#4221 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:33 pm

There are a few high mountains in eastern Jamaica up around 7,000 feet. Central and western Jamaica is mostly a plateau up to about 3,000 feet.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4222 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:34 pm

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.
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#4223 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:34 pm

It's really taking off now...we had 2 "convective bumps"...now we have 3...and the convection south of Jamaica is dying out (as expected)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4224 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:35 pm

Brent wrote:WOW, from nothing to a nice blowup in an hour.

*prepares the crow*



But Brent, that convection is going to have to sustain itself....We'll know in a few hours... :wink:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4225 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:35 pm

Brent wrote:WOW, from nothing to a nice blowup in an hour.

*prepares the crow*


It had an LLC, not nothing, though I know what you mean. :)
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4226 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:36 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Um Ed, better check out the 0z model runs ... they've shifted a bit west.



At 9:30 pm CDT, I'm pretty sure you're talking the BAMMs, and, as everyone always says, they are a model for storms in the tropics, and once North of about 25º, it isn't really the tropics.


Nope, it was more than just the BAMMs. Check out the models thread. And I wrote they shifted "a bit", not 100 miles. :wink:



A bit, as in a tiny amount, and except for shallow BAM, all still aimed at Lousiana to Alabama.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4227 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:36 pm

That little center burst should be tonight's blow-up over the center.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4228 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:38 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?
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#4229 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:There are a few high mountains in eastern Jamaica up around 7,000 feet. Central and western Jamaica is mostly a plateau up to about 3,000 feet.

Just for Clarification
Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... nt/jm.html

Elevation extremes:
lowest point: Caribbean Sea 0 m
highest point: Blue Mountain Peak 2,256 m

2256 Meters = 7401.5748 Feet
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4230 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:39 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.


With a trough digging..I doubt it
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4231 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:39 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.




GFDL has shown pretty amazing run to run consistency, shifting from just West of NOLA to just East of NOLA over past day.
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#4232 Postby Just Joshing You » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:40 pm

I have a funny feeling that this storm is going to wrap up really nice while I sleep.
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#4233 Postby O Town » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:41 pm

Hes sucking the convection right out of that blob to the east like a straw.
Gustav is thristy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4234 Postby ColdFusion » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:41 pm

WHY does there have to be a 30 minute delay on the GOES floater? Is it a business decision? Surely the technology is there to get the images posted much faster with greater frequency.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4235 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:41 pm

TWC showed the High shifting east as Gus recurves around it in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4236 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:42 pm

Convective burst still growing and deepening
Maybe being back over open water with shear decreasing and land interaction lessening is having a quick effect
and I do agree that persistence is needed for a re-organization.
Tim

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4237 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:42 pm

LSU2001 wrote:Convective burst still growing and deepening
Maybe being back over open water with shear decreasing and land interaction lessening is having a quick effect
and I do agree that persistence is needed for a re-organization.
Tim

Image

Yep...it made it.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4238 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:42 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.




GFDL has shown pretty amazing run to run consistency, shifting from just West of NOLA to just East of NOLA over past day.


It certainly has.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4239 Postby Annie Oakley » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:43 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.


Uhhh Mods-please.....this is ?????
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#4240 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:44 pm

Here come the advisories:

outlook valid 01/0000z 26.0n 87.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Outlook valid 02/0000z 29.0n 89.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
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