ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

I just want to remind people of the hitting eastern cuba and dying talk from this afternoon..hopefuly people will learn to chill out but I doubt it

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.


Any takers?

[Dean4Storms]

TWC showed the High shifting east as Gus recurves around it in the Gulf.

And that is my question. If Gus moves any slower than the models are now indicating does the ridge slide east even further and Gus turn sooner and more sharply???

Whatcha think Sanibel?

[Sabanic]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Uhhh Mods-please.....this is ?????

Just someone's thoughts Annie. Not written in stone, and much would have to change to bring them all to S Texas. At least for the time being anyway.

[Ptarmigan]

I have a funny feeling that this storm is going to wrap up really nice while I sleep.

I hope you are wrong, but I have a feeling that it could happen. Katrina and Wilma did that.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.


Any takers?

LOL....Come to New Orleans and it's on me!

[Shockwave]

I'm VERY surprised to see the models actually agree on where Gustav might go. I still fully believe we have to wait til it passes Cuba to have a real clear cut agreement, but seeing this agreement this far out in advance is a good sign on when and who will be affected and it will cut evacuation time down. Lets hope it stays that way, but the intensity of Gustav goes down. Gustav has really shot back up in intensity in the past hour. (I almost typed Fay out on all of this post...I'm still on Fay-lag!)

[LSU2001]

Question:
If you look at the new convection and the first tropical forecast point the convection is well south of the point. Is this shear or is movement truly to the southwest or is the LLC exposed and the convection needs to wrap????
Sorry can't figure out how to post the loop
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[LowndesCoFire]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

I thought the models have been trending every so slightly eastward also...

[ConvergenceZone]

Here come the advisories:

outlook valid 01/0000z 26.0n 87.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Outlook valid 02/0000z 29.0n 89.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Yep, slowly decreasing the intensity in the Gulf, just like I thought they would do....I'll be interested to read the discussion, should be out in a few, just enough time for me to run to Taco Bell....

[mattpetre]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.


Any takers?

I'm more than willing to bet that this will wind up Lake Charles, LA or west at this point if you are so dead set on it going eastward.

[Portastorm]

I have a funny feeling that this storm is going to wrap up really nice while I sleep.

I hope you are wrong, but I have a feeling that it could happen. Katrina and Wilma did that.

Gus has done some wrapping of his own in the last 2 hrs. Impressive bounce-back!

[rockyman]

Current position and movement:

Tropical storm center located near 18.8n 75.4w at 28/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-southwest or 250 degrees at 7 kt

[paintplaye]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.


Any takers?

I think I will. You weren't really around too much last night when GFDL had a cat 4 hitting Texas... Hmm I wonder why.

[AMeyerRN]

11pm

[mattpetre]

Question:
If you look at the new convection and the first tropical forecast point the convection is well south of the point. Is this shear or is movement truly to the southwest or is the LLC exposed and the convection needs to wrap????
Sorry can't figure out how to post the loop
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I honestly thought a possible Jamaica landfall could come to fruition for quite some time now. With the current motion I wouldn't be completely surprised if it actually went S. of Jamaica at this point. Look for models to trend West by tomorrow as I said earlier.

[Frank P]

11pm

looks like a very slight shift west, but not much...

[Sabanic]

Question:
If you look at the new convection and the first tropical forecast point the convection is well south of the point. Is this shear or is movement truly to the southwest or is the LLC exposed and the convection needs to wrap????
Sorry can't figure out how to post the loop
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I honestly thought a possible Jamaica landfall could come to fruition for quite some time now. With the current motion I wouldn't be completely surprised if it actually went S. of Jamaica at this point. Look for models to trend West by tomorrow as I said earlier.

Back and forth, back and forth

[Toadstool]

11pm

Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...

[LowndesCoFire]

11pm

So have days 4-5 really not changed with the past few advisories? NHC seems pretty confident...