ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

GFDL has shown pretty amazing run to run consistency, shifting from just West of NOLA to just East of NOLA over past day.

The GFDL did not forecast this weakening either ED, which intensity does play a part in track to some degree......you just dont want to eat your "Texas season over" thread.....

[El Nino]

11pm

I know what a "direct hit" is now ...

[Sean in New Orleans]

OK...So, now this is, I believe the sixth consecutive NHC forecast that directs the storm to a large city in SE LA (I won't say it...I promise. I won't say the word...J/J )

[rockyman]

Discussion out:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[Dean4Storms]

A question for any pro met.

If the GFDL and HWRF are models based off the GFS and the GFS is not initializing Gus at the right current depth or throughout its forecasted intensity of its track does this not possibly throw of the track of the GFDL and HWRF to some degree?

I would think that if the GFS was initializing the storm at the right surface pressure it would tend to turn into the ridge stronger in its forecast.

Where am I worng?

[O Town]

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth

[CrazyC83]

Could this west-southwest movement change the entire forecast in the end? Or is it temporary?

[Sanibel]

Whatcha think Sanibel?

My personal thought about the High is that it looks like a fully developed High for the GOM at this time of year. In other words it has reached its full extent. The only option is weakening or movement. You can see we are under a High here in the daytime looking at the sky. This WSW movement is climatologically anomalous, so I'm thinking it will probably offer some surprise changes as this current track is doing. By the way this current WSW movement is exactly what GFDL predicted two nights ago. But, of course, we must temper this with my "This is headed to Texas" on Dean last year. I didn't expect the ridge to hold all the way to Central America last summer. So I'll cop out and say let's see what Gus does in 48 hours.

It could be that Florida will divide Gus and 95L into separate basins with little affect on each other. But it would not surprise me to see Gus limited to category 3 if 95L gets strong. Just a hunch.

[Wx_Warrior]

Still no landfall...interesting...I'll take that bet Ed...I'm in H-town all the time due to covering pro sporting events!!

[TideJoe]

11pm

Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...

That's completely negligible from this far out as we all know how fast these things can ramp up. I also think it's pretty irresponsible of them to lower the intensity forecast this far out because people will start to become complacent.

[Stormcenter]

OK...So, now this is, I believe the sixth consecutive NHC forecast that directs the storm to a large city in SE LA (I won't say it...I promise. I won't say the word...J/J )

The models will shift again believe me but the key thing to note is the intensity max has been brought down.
It looks like Gustav will be dealing with some decent SW shear.

initial 28/0300z 18.8n 75.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 18.8n 76.5w 45 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 18.9n 78.0w 50 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 19.4n 79.5w 60 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 20.1n 81.0w 70 kt
72hr VT 31/0000z 22.5n 84.5w 85 kt
96hr VT 01/0000z 26.0n 87.5w 95 kt
120hr VT 02/0000z 29.0n 89.5w 95 kt

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.


Any takers?

I think I will. You weren't really around too much last night when GFDL had a cat 4 hitting Texas... Hmm I wonder why.


.....................................................................................

Since that 18Z near Cameron, every run since has been much closer to NOLA, with an eastward trend on each one. The trend is your friend.


Oh, and some of us have jobs we go to in the morning, and don't post much after 9 or 10 pm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Discussion out:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

obviously this was written before they noticed the -80C tops on the convection. I now expect gradual restrengthening overnight and tomorrow, with a major back in the forecast. Since this is getting its act together again, I cant find anything that will keep it weaker.

[CrazyC83]

11pm

Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...

That's completely negligible from this far out as we all know how fast these things can ramp up. I also think it's pretty irresponsible of them to lower the intensity forecast this far out because people will start to become complacent.

I agree, I would have held the forecast at 100 kt for those points just for that reason.

[Sabanic]

Could this west-southwest movement change the entire forecast in the end? Or is it temporary?

Read the discussion Crazy. It was predicted by some of the models. Not totally unexpected at all.

[Stormcenter]

Discussion out:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

obviously this was written before they noticed the -80C tops on the convection. I now expect gradual restrengthening overnight and tomorrow, with a major back in the forecast. Since this is getting its act together again, I cant find anything that will keep it weaker.

Shear in the GOM will hopefully keep him at a Cat.2 or less.

[CrazyC83]

Discussion out:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

obviously this was written before they noticed the -80C tops on the convection. I now expect gradual restrengthening overnight and tomorrow, with a major back in the forecast. Since this is getting its act together again, I cant find anything that will keep it weaker.

There is one mechanism left for weakening Gustav - a close approach or landfall with Jamaica and its mountains.

I agree it is restrengthening right now. 40 kt seems right at this point but I would have had it at 35 kt at 0000Z.

[LSU2001]

[quote="AMeyerRN"]11pm

[/quote

Wow (sarcasm) shift from the east side of the Mississippi river delta to the West side of the Mississippi River Delta a west shift of what 20-25 miles but a difference in effects here in South La. More west more surge for NOLA and EastBank. More East and north winds and flooding from Pontchatrain more an issue.
Wait and see I guess
Tim

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still no landfall...interesting...I'll take that bet Ed...I'm in H-town all the time due to covering pro sporting events!!

Miller Lite or Bud Light would work fine...