ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4261 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:53 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.




GFDL has shown pretty amazing run to run consistency, shifting from just West of NOLA to just East of NOLA over past day.



The GFDL did not forecast this weakening either ED, which intensity does play a part in track to some degree......you just dont want to eat your "Texas season over" thread..... :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4262 Postby El Nino » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:53 pm

AMeyerRN wrote:11pm

Image


I know what a "direct hit" is now ... :eek:
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#4263 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:53 pm

OK...So, now this is, I believe the sixth consecutive NHC forecast that directs the storm to a large city in SE LA (I won't say it...I promise. I won't say the word...J/J :eek: )
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#4264 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:53 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4265 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:54 pm

A question for any pro met.

If the GFDL and HWRF are models based off the GFS and the GFS is not initializing Gus at the right current depth or throughout its forecasted intensity of its track does this not possibly throw of the track of the GFDL and HWRF to some degree?

I would think that if the GFS was initializing the storm at the right surface pressure it would tend to turn into the ridge stronger in its forecast.

Where am I worng?
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#4266 Postby O Town » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:54 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4267 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:54 pm

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#4268 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:54 pm

Could this west-southwest movement change the entire forecast in the end? Or is it temporary?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4269 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:55 pm

Whatcha think Sanibel?



My personal thought about the High is that it looks like a fully developed High for the GOM at this time of year. In other words it has reached its full extent. The only option is weakening or movement. You can see we are under a High here in the daytime looking at the sky. This WSW movement is climatologically anomalous, so I'm thinking it will probably offer some surprise changes as this current track is doing. By the way this current WSW movement is exactly what GFDL predicted two nights ago. But, of course, we must temper this with my "This is headed to Texas" on Dean last year. I didn't expect the ridge to hold all the way to Central America last summer. So I'll cop out and say let's see what Gus does in 48 hours.

It could be that Florida will divide Gus and 95L into separate basins with little affect on each other. But it would not surprise me to see Gus limited to category 3 if 95L gets strong. Just a hunch.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4270 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:55 pm

Still no landfall...interesting...I'll take that bet Ed...I'm in H-town all the time due to covering pro sporting events!!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4271 Postby TideJoe » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:56 pm

Toadstool wrote:
AMeyerRN wrote:11pm

Image


Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...



That's completely negligible from this far out as we all know how fast these things can ramp up. I also think it's pretty irresponsible of them to lower the intensity forecast this far out because people will start to become complacent.
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Re:

#4272 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:56 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:OK...So, now this is, I believe the sixth consecutive NHC forecast that directs the storm to a large city in SE LA (I won't say it...I promise. I won't say the word...J/J :eek: )



The models will shift again believe me but the key thing to note is the intensity max has been brought down.
It looks like Gustav will be dealing with some decent SW shear.

initial 28/0300z 18.8n 75.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 18.8n 76.5w 45 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 18.9n 78.0w 50 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 19.4n 79.5w 60 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 20.1n 81.0w 70 kt
72hr VT 31/0000z 22.5n 84.5w 85 kt
96hr VT 01/0000z 26.0n 87.5w 95 kt
120hr VT 02/0000z 29.0n 89.5w 95 kt
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4273 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:56 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?



It generally has been. I'll bet a twelve pack of adult beverage at any future SETX S2K meetup if the 0Z GFDL has landfall more than one hundred miles either side 89ºW.


Any takers?


I think I will. You weren't really around too much last night when GFDL had a cat 4 hitting Texas... Hmm I wonder why.


.....................................................................................

Since that 18Z near Cameron, every run since has been much closer to NOLA, with an eastward trend on each one. The trend is your friend.


Oh, and some of us have jobs we go to in the morning, and don't post much after 9 or 10 pm.
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Re:

#4274 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:56 pm


obviously this was written before they noticed the -80C tops on the convection. I now expect gradual restrengthening overnight and tomorrow, with a major back in the forecast. Since this is getting its act together again, I cant find anything that will keep it weaker.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4275 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:57 pm

TideJoe wrote:
Toadstool wrote:
AMeyerRN wrote:11pm

Image


Well at least it's reduced from Cat3 to Cat2...



That's completely negligible from this far out as we all know how fast these things can ramp up. I also think it's pretty irresponsible of them to lower the intensity forecast this far out because people will start to become complacent.


I agree, I would have held the forecast at 100 kt for those points just for that reason.
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Re:

#4276 Postby Sabanic » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Could this west-southwest movement change the entire forecast in the end? Or is it temporary?


Read the discussion Crazy. It was predicted by some of the models. Not totally unexpected at all.
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Re: Re:

#4277 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:58 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:

obviously this was written before they noticed the -80C tops on the convection. I now expect gradual restrengthening overnight and tomorrow, with a major back in the forecast. Since this is getting its act together again, I cant find anything that will keep it weaker.



Shear in the GOM will hopefully keep him at a Cat.2 or less.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#4278 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:58 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:

obviously this was written before they noticed the -80C tops on the convection. I now expect gradual restrengthening overnight and tomorrow, with a major back in the forecast. Since this is getting its act together again, I cant find anything that will keep it weaker.


There is one mechanism left for weakening Gustav - a close approach or landfall with Jamaica and its mountains.

I agree it is restrengthening right now. 40 kt seems right at this point but I would have had it at 35 kt at 0000Z.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4279 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:58 pm

[quote="AMeyerRN"]11pm

Image[/quote

Wow (sarcasm) shift from the east side of the Mississippi river delta to the West side of the Mississippi River Delta a west shift of what 20-25 miles but a difference in effects here in South La. More west more surge for NOLA and EastBank. More East and north winds and flooding from Pontchatrain more an issue.
Wait and see I guess :roll:
Tim
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#4280 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:58 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Still no landfall...interesting...I'll take that bet Ed...I'm in H-town all the time due to covering pro sporting events!!



Miller Lite or Bud Light would work fine...
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