ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Wthrman13]

My brother (KFDM_PRO_MET) is up (don't post much anymore)...said the dissipate and regeneration as expected in his eyes....long road ahead.

So why did some promets earlier talk about how weak it was and even hint that it may soon die? Is he really not surprised? I am and I have thought all along that Gustav was nowhere near death, but this regeneration is pretty quick and could spell huge differences even before tomorrow.

No, I really am not surprised. There was still a significant low-level circulation present with a 999 mb low. Yes, there is still some shear present but it didn't appear to me to be overly prohibitive for maintenance or even re-intensification.

However, in all fairness, if this renewed convective development hadn't happened so quickly, it wouldn't have knocked me off my chair. That's simply because I wasn't sure of the extent of the northerly shear on the system, and frankly, we meteorologists still have a whole lot to learn about TC's and their myriad possible interactions with their environment. I know I do.

[Air Force Met]

have not seen any comments from the mets since it's made a comeback, it would be interesting to know their opinion if any are up still.

I'm up. I'm watching the GFS run come in now with great interest. Will post my thoughts once it comes in through 168 hrs or so.

Other thoughts: I lurked earlier...and many of you need to learn a serious lesson about the tropics: PATIENCE. Stop making a now-cast based on every short term trend...whether it is intensity or the flipping left and right of the models. For heaven's sake...the reason the threads are always hundreds of pages now is because everyone has an opinion on every short term trend...and it usually changes in the next hour. Add to that all the useless chatter...wallah you have 500 pages.

[Javlin]

Let's talk about short term track and see who gets it right. N. of Jamaica (including skirting the N. Coast), direct hit on Jamaica, or S. of Jamaica? I think you know where I stand... South

I will take your bet Matt N of jamakee all the way right along the NHC pts.This medicine the doctor gave could turn me into a Looney Tune

[CrazyC83]

Based on Cuban radar, the center seems to be around 18.1N 75.5W.

[mattpetre]

OK, I'll stop posting as soon as someone can convince me that Gustav will head N. of Jamaica. I just don't see it. And I watched those forecast points change and they still aren't on track with reality or actual motion. I saved them and I will show them after verification.

But seriously, you vote it is N. of Jamaica like NHC points then, Javlin? I'll count you for that vote on my silly little poll.

[mattpetre]

have not seen any comments from the mets since it's made a comeback, it would be interesting to know their opinion if any are up still.

I'm up. I'm watching the GFS run come in now with great interest. Will post my thoughts once it comes in through 168 hrs or so.

Other thoughts: I lurked earlier...and many of you need to learn a serious lesson about the tropics: PATIENCE. Stop making a now-cast based on every short term trend...whether it is intensity or the flipping left and right of the models. For heaven's sake...the reason the threads are always hundreds of pages now is because everyone has an opinion on every short term trend...and it usually changes in the next hour. Add to that all the useless chatter...wallah you have 500 pages.

OK, so we stop giving our useless chatter and just give you Storm2K as your very own TV station? Great, but I have to tell you at that point I'd just watch the noaa sat pictures and model runs and TWC. BTW, I love your posts AFM, but to call what people say useless Chatter is dangerous. I don't always feel warranted in my posting, but people use these forums like they breathe air... for good or bad. We can always find other air to breathe, but I hope you do realize why less people visit the analysis forum VS. the talkin' tropics threads.

[x-y-no]

Let's talk about short term track and see who gets it right. N. of Jamaica (including skirting the N. Coast), direct hit on Jamaica, or S. of Jamaica? I think you know where I stand... South

I'll say though the heart of Jamaica. It's hard for me to see any Hurricane sustaining a SW motion.

I'll say brushing the northern coast of Jamaica.

[mattpetre]

Based on Cuban radar, the center seems to be around 18.1N 75.5W.

Really pretty far S. of forecast points then.

[Javlin]

Air Force Met why do we use IF2 ?I really want to know Do not answer that AFMet its this damn medicine the doctor gave you guys are making me laugh time for bed.

[Bolebuns]

OK, I'll stop posting as soon as someone can convince me that Gustav will head N. of Jamaica. I just don't see it. And I watched those forecast points change and they still aren't on track with reality or actual motion. I saved them and I will show them after verification.

But seriously, you vote it is N. of Jamaica like NHC points then, Javlin? I'll count you for that vote on my silly little poll.

I will say north, because the center may be north of where you think it is. The convection burst makes it look like it has more of a southerly component than is actually does. Thoughts?

[Innotech]

so did the center relocate? Or is the ridge just that much of a beast?

[Javlin]

TWO for the NORTH route here we go.

[Air Force Met]

I dont know AFM..this run has a weaker ridge backing a bit off to the east..vortmax much further east on this run..now MOBILE

First of all...don't use the tropical map...use the US map...its much higher resolution.

Second. Compare the previous runs...especially from 12z this morning.

What you see is the GFS really looses the low. However, on the 90 hr...when it still has it...it is clearly well west of where it was at 18z.

00z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_090l.gif

18z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096l.gif

Also compare the ridging at 72 hrs. Much stronger.

00z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

18Z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

The 00z run clearly looses the low again...which is why it looks like it moves into MOB. It moves the lower level vortex into SE LA. Use a higher resolution grid so you can see the finer details. The western N.A. region is too low to see the small picture.

[HouTXmetro]

TWO for the NORTH route here we go.

One for through Jamaica

[mattpetre]

So for now it's 3 North, 1 Direct, and 1 South

Tell me if you've changed this poll and we'll see who's right by morning.

[bostonseminole]

OK, I'll stop posting as soon as someone can convince me that Gustav will head N. of Jamaica. I just don't see it. And I watched those forecast points change and they still aren't on track with reality or actual motion. I saved them and I will show them after verification.

But seriously, you vote it is N. of Jamaica like NHC points then, Javlin? I'll count you for that vote on my silly little poll.

recon should confirm in a couple of hours, North I bet.

[shah8]

I have a significant degree of disbelief in believing that the coc is at 18.1N 75.5W. That's pretty radically south. A link showing the radar or a simple pic would help.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking it will go a bit south of Jamaica, perhaps clipping the southern part. It seems to be moving southwest at this point - kinda reminiscent of Katrina over Florida.

[Ivanhater]

I dont know..I see the high clearly oriented more to the east on this run..especially 108 hours compared to the 114 hours 18z

[ROCK]

So for now it's 3 North, 1 Direct, and 1 South

Tell me if you've changed this poll and we'll see who's right by morning.

just saying is this necessary? How about ask a mod to start a poll thread or something...this is a discussion thread not a poll....


no offense though just saying.....