ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Innotech]

looks to go North and skirt the coast. the center isnt exactly where the main convection is so its misleading.

[CrazyC83]

[ROCK]

looks to go North and skirt the coast. the center isnt exactly where the main convection is so its misleading.

OK OK I will bite.......South of Jamiaca....Gus is well south of the tropical points now.....

[RL3AO]

Looks like no recon tonight. They turned around north of Cuba.

[GeneratorPower]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighthearted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like no recon tonight. They turned around north of Cuba.

Why did they turn around?

[ROCK]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighthearted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

you left out Texas?

[CrazyC83]

Looks like no recon tonight. They turned around north of Cuba.

Why did they turn around?

Probably some technical or mechanical problems.

[shah8]

It's too bad there is no recon. I would have said that as of 11:50PM EST, it was at 18.4N 75.5W. It's not *diving* south. It's WSW, and looking at long visibles, pretty consistently so.

[mattpetre]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighthearted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

Actually not representative of us that voted S. or D. on Jamaica at all.

[Javlin]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighthearted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

One thing how does it work??

[Ivanhater]

[mattpetre]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighthearted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

However, I do have to give credit in that you made landfall at my initial "contest" forecast point of just S. of Lake Charles.

[Innotech]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighthearted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

Actually not representative of us that voted S. or D. on Jamaica at all.

remember, the hurricane is not a point. In fact Gustav will blow up to 3 times the size of the US, hit every place at once and then dissipate in my backyard to a swirl of leaves, possibly leaving a puddle.

[CajunMama]

BRAVO
GeneratorPower!!!!!
Your humor is just what many of us needed! Thank you!

[Air Force Met]

I dont know..I see the high clearly oriented more to the east on this run..especially 108 hours compared to the 114 hours 18z

By that time it is different. However...if you look at the 60-72 hr point...which is really where the end game is going to be made...it is stronger and further west.

As I have stated over and over: When I look at the globals...especially the GFS...and try to forecast a storm...I am not really looking at what it is doing with that vortex...especially since it doesn't have the resolution to find it or keep it at the intensity it should be. I am looking at steering flow. Since the key factor in the final landfall of Gustav will be determined over the course of the next 48-72...I want to know the strength of the ridging...not only off the SE US coast...but over the plains. If the plains high is stronger and further west during this period...it will impart a more westerly motion to Gustav during that period. So on Sat evening...instead of being at 22.5/84.5...its at 22/86...that makes a difference in the landfall.

Again...my area of concentration on this storm is not at 108 hrs. I think it is pretty much set in stone which direction it will be moving at that point...NNW. The question will be how far west did it get BEFORE it starts that movement...and that will be determined by that period b/w60-72 and even 90 hours from now.

[mattpetre]

I'm keeping my own personal poll of what could happen with Gustav in Jamaica now and my personalities are split... 1 says N. 3 say S. and 2 say Direct hit.

Seriously though, we have to try and keep ourselves up until Recon figures this "NEW" beast out.

[bostonseminole]

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage1.asp

[Category 5]

I wanted to take a moment to let you know about a new model currently in the testing stages. It's called the S2K and it has excellent skill. Well, it's pretty good anyway. Actually, it has negative skill in every measurable way. It is generated from the implied storm positions and intensities based on the myriad of diverse viewpoints found on Storm2K. In fact, if you believe the S2K model,

1. Everyone, everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief because clearly the storm is not going to x-location.
2. Everyone needs to watch the storm carefully, as everyone is now in the cone.
3. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm is NOT coming to their area.
4. Everyone can be absolutely relieved because the storm IS coming to their area after all.
5. Oil futures can now be traded with the utmost accuracy because EVERY possible scenario is perfectly represented.

See the image below, making special note of the new "S2K" line in purple.

Cheers, and happy forecasting.



No representation is made that the image above is actually a valid forecast. In fact, this whole post was nothing more than a lighth earted attempt at humor after being completely worn out by Fay and Gustav.

That's the funniest thing I've seen posted in a while dude.

[mattpetre]

I dont know..I see the high clearly oriented more to the east on this run..especially 108 hours compared to the 114 hours 18z

By that time it is different. However...if you look at the 60-72 hr point...which is really where the end game is going to be made...it is stronger and further west.

As I have stated over and over: When I look at the globals...especially the GFS...and try to forecast a storm...I am not really looking at what it is doing with that vortex...especially since it doesn't have the resolution to find it or keep it at the intensity it should be. I am looking at steering flow. Since the key factor in the final landfall of Gustav will be determined over the course of the next 48-72...I want to know the strength of the ridging...not only off the SE US coast...but over the plains. If the plains high is stronger and further west during this period...it will impart a more westerly motion to Gustav during that period. So on Sat evening...instead of being at 22.5/84.5...its at 22/86...that makes a difference in the landfall.

Again...my area of concentration on this storm is not at 108 hrs. I think it is pretty much set in stone which direction it will be moving at that point...NNW. The question will be how far west did it get BEFORE it starts that movement...and that will be determined by that period b/w60-72 and even 90 hours from now.

I think you and I actually see the second ridge as being just as important or more than the first, but don't you also believe this initial starting point (as in what it does for the next 24hr) as being just as important for final landfall too?