ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stratosphere747]

I don't see how anyone can discern where the center is to make a pronoucement as to movement.

Yeah it's really hard to tell. AJC3's loop does show what appears to be the center moving towards the W just to the N of Jamaica.

[Aric Dunn]

1km visible shows it maybe just north of Jamaica

Here's an 11 hour time lapse of the Gran Piedra radar...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/272145_280845.gif

looks at about 18N, where I am seeing it on sat

looks like it is going to graze the northern coast

more down the spine or the extreme southern side

[dwg71]

if it grazes north coast it will miss next nhc point by a full degree north.

[Dean4Storms]

The GFDL sure has been staying put with either MS or AL landfall area.

[teal61]

Looks to be near 18 north..maybe slightly south of that and close to 76, just northeast of the easternmost tip of Jamaica. And I would guess moving off to the west.

[Derek Ortt]

vis also shows it is moving closer to 275 now

of course, the mountains will likely cause erratic changes in track today yet again

[TideJoe]

The GFDL sure has been staying put with either MS or AL landfall area.

We're going to have to wait till Gus shoots the gap and gets into the extreme southern GOM before the models settle in. I expect several East and West shifts over the next 24-36 hours. If you're in the cone, start preparing now.

[TideJoe]

vis also shows it is moving closer to 275 now

of course, the mountains will likely cause erratic changes in track today yet again

Yep..... remember Ivan's dance around Jamaica?

[Aric Dunn]

its also very likely that we will have a hurricane at either 11am or 2 pm.

[jlauderdal]

vis also shows it is moving closer to 275 now

of course, the mountains will likely cause erratic changes in track today yet again

Yep..... remember Ivan's dance around Jamaica?

yep bounced a few times off the southern coast, that was really crazy, it wanted warm water and no land thats for sure

[Aric Dunn]

vis also shows it is moving closer to 275 now

of course, the mountains will likely cause erratic changes in track today yet again

i imagine most of that 275 motion being seen is the expansion of the convection and not the actual motion at the moment. not saying it will take a 275 motion but right now its more erratic than anything as the convection begins to wrap back around and expand.

[Derek Ortt]

looked again and I may have been tracking an eddy... not sure yet

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still no landfall...interesting...I'll take that bet Ed...I'm in H-town all the time due to covering pro sporting events!!

0Z and 6Z GFDL both have landfall w/i 100 miles of 89ºW...

[carversteve]

Is that the center to the ne of Jamacia?? Right in the middle of the red convection??

[TideJoe]

Starting to look a lot healthier.

[ROCK]

Still no landfall...interesting...I'll take that bet Ed...I'm in H-town all the time due to covering pro sporting events!!

0Z and 6Z GFDL both have landfall w/i 100 miles of 89ºW...

Yes, ED, the GFDL does show that...seems to like that area and has been stuck on it....if it doesnt hit in that general area then you might need to stop hugging that model....

.look at the UKMET, NOGAPS... considerably west....I am very tempted to take the bet also....so if you lose you might get a case of beer....

[Just Joshing You]

I took Sat images of it before I went to bed and left them open, and refreshed the image when I woke up. Must say, when I saw it I said my prediction of 55 kt was spot on, was a little upset to read NHC and see 60 kt

[LAwxrgal]

Oh boy... I'm deeply disturbed to come in here and wake up to see Gustav has ramped up again...and he has yet to traverse the hottest waters in the entire basin.

Not to mention, has anyone else noticed that he's grown in size too?

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, looking much better than it did 1`2 hours ago. I think we will see a hurricane again at 11am adv..