ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z Gfs Looks like ut wants to make a Tx run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

yes GFS is sending Gustav more west this time....as a big High builds in across the Eastern CONUS and Western Atlantic.

[HouTXmetro]

yes GFS is sending Gustav more west this time....as a big High builds in across the Eastern CONUS and Western Atlantic.

Yes, appears to be approaching TX/LA coast.

[KWT]

Its amazing the models still jumping about with Hustav, they really son't have a clue how the upper high is going to evolve, relaly do need those gulstream planes to go in I think!

Looks like its going to go close to where Rita went on this run.

[rockyman]

GFS at 132 hours...moving NW toward western LA

GFS at 150...moving SW toward Texas coast

[Stormcenter]

GFS at 132 hours...moving NW toward western LA

GFS at 150...moving SW toward Texas coast

This is a very believable run...though not good for TX.

[rockyman]

GFS at 132 hours...moving NW toward western LA

GFS at 150...moving SW toward Texas coast

This is a very believable run...though not good for TX.

.
...
Would be an unusual path (curving west instead of east off the Texas coast)...looks like the blocking high mentioned by NHC disco

[CrazyC83]

GFS at 132 hours...moving NW toward western LA

GFS at 150...moving SW toward Texas coast

This is a very believable run...though not good for TX.

A late WNW turn would be catastrophic for oil interests as it affects a large swath of the Gulf where the platforms are.

[Sabanic]

GFS at 132 hours...moving NW toward western LA

GFS at 150...moving SW toward Texas coast

This is a very believable run...though not good for TX.

A late WNW turn would be catastrophic for oil interests as it affects a large swath of the Gulf where the platforms are.

Long long way to go folks. Long way to go

[KWT]

Yep Crazy it'd be a real killer in terms of production from the gulf, though given the uncertainty I doubt there'd be many rigs operating IF models don't start agreeing soon.

Will wait and see to see what the other 12z models do before judging what I think of the 12z GFS run.

[dwg71]

150 Hours would be nearly a week from now. I dont think it will be still out in the water. Look at the GFS steering patterns, it is not showing a real deep system.

I see nothing here that would change a central LA land fall in 4 1/2 - 5 days or so.

[HouTXmetro]

GFS has been showing this for multiple runs. AS one of the more RELIABLE models along with the EURO, I would not discount this. What is the latest EURO?

Remember Fay? Nonone beleived the GFS when it showed Fay moving SW/W over Florida.

[CrazyC83]

Yep Crazy it'd be a real killer in terms of production from the gulf, though given the uncertainty I doubt there'd be many rigs operating IF models don't start agreeing soon.

Will wait and see to see what the other 12z models do before judging what I think of the 12z GFS run.

The only good thing is that such would keep it over lower heat content for a longer time so it would likely weaken quite a bit.

[Portastorm]

Long long way to go folks. Long way to go

Yeah Sabanic, exactly. As much as some chided folks last night for getting wrapped around certain model runs, the same holds true now. Is the 12z GFS run interesting? Yeah, you bet, especially since this idea of a stronger ridge and possible stalling off the Gulf Coast has been mentioned (and shown in a few other runs). But we have a long ways to go here. If tonight's 0z globals (both the GFS and Euro) show something similar, then it might be time to buy into the idea.

[Sabanic]

Yup . . TX bound

[dwg71]

At 114 hours it has it exactly where NHC has it. Just off the central coast of LA. This is not some big shift west. It is actually well inland at 132 hours. in LA.

[HCSD]

Hasn't the GFS been trending west over the last few runs? That's what I am looking at...

[Sabanic]

Hasn't the GFS been trending west over the last few runs? That's what I am looking at...

Slightly, but if we are going to look at the GFS and a trend, then we have to consider the GFDL also which has been consistant in it's presence around AL/MS. Right?
Folks chill. Still time.

[perk]

Its amazing the models still jumping about with Hustav, they really son't have a clue how the upper high is going to evolve, relaly do need those gulstream planes to go in I think!

Looks like its going to go close to where Rita went on this run.

KWT this is causing a great amount of stress on residents in the cone, the NHC has to nail down a landfall in a couple of days, i trust them, but i would'nt want to be them.

[vaffie]

I'm waiting for tonight's 0Z model runs. After the gulfstream plane data from the Gulf of Mexico comes in this evening, we will have our first super-reliable model runs with much greater consistency--hopefully, and then I will make plans about what to do.