ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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Sabanic
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1501 Postby Sabanic » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:54 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:didn't see the GFDL data posted.

WHXX04 KWBC 281734

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L



INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 28



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 17.9 75.8 245./ 2.9

6 17.7 76.3 255./ 5.0

12 18.0 76.9 291./ 5.9

18 18.4 77.6 299./ 8.3

24 18.9 78.8 296./12.0

30 19.4 79.8 293./10.9

36 19.8 80.7 293./ 9.6

42 20.1 81.9 288./11.1

48 20.7 82.7 304./10.2

54 21.6 83.4 326./10.9

60 22.7 84.2 322./13.2

66 23.6 85.1 313./12.2

72 24.6 85.8 328./12.2

78 25.7 86.3 337./11.6

84 26.9 86.8 334./12.9

90 28.0 87.4 334./11.9

96 29.3 87.9 337./13.2

102 30.4 88.5 332./12.2

108 31.4 89.0 334./10.8

114 32.2 89.6 322./ 9.8

120 33.0 90.1 332./ 9.2

126 33.6 90.3 333./ 6.0


That is bad news for the homefront.
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#1502 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:55 pm

GFDL is the most consistent from run to run.. I'll give it that much.
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Re:

#1503 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:57 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:GFDL is the most consistent from run to run.. I'll give it that much.



Is it some sort of trough it's seeing drawing Gus to the N or NE?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1504 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:57 pm

12z UKMET tracks towards Texas/LA border:


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2008



TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 75.5W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.08.2008 18.2N 75.5W MODERATE

00UTC 29.08.2008 17.8N 75.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2008 18.9N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 19.2N 79.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2008 20.2N 81.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2008 21.5N 83.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 23.4N 85.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.9N 86.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 26.4N 88.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2008 27.9N 89.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2008 28.8N 90.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2008 29.4N 92.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2008 30.1N 93.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1505 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:58 pm

I assume they canceled it because the storm seems to be on Jamaica.
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Re:

#1506 Postby Sabanic » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:00 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:GFDL is the most consistent from run to run.. I'll give it that much.


It has not waivered the entire time
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1507 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:04 pm

Can you say model agreement? South Central LA is under the gun right now.

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1508 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET tracks towards Texas/LA border:


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2008



TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 75.5W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.08.2008 18.2N 75.5W MODERATE

00UTC 29.08.2008 17.8N 75.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2008 18.9N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 19.2N 79.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2008 20.2N 81.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2008 21.5N 83.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 23.4N 85.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.9N 86.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 26.4N 88.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2008 27.9N 89.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2008 28.8N 90.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2008 29.4N 92.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2008 30.1N 93.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE




More like central LA....
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#1509 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:09 pm

Well theres pretty good agreement from the models on a LA strike now, the GFDL is on the eastern side of the guidence but that seems to be pretty typical, though I wouldn't rule it out at all...

the other thing to note is quite a few models now do slightly bend this back WNW just before landfall, we shall see what happened!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1510 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:12 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1511 Postby Javlin » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:27 pm

Thr HWRF went a little W and so did the GFDL then the UKMET came E about that much 60miles.Also the GFDL is here in 102hrs some acceleration happening here 102hrs 30.4N 88.5W 332./12.2
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1512 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:29 pm

Javlin wrote:Thr HWRF went a little W and so did the GFDL then the UKMET came E about that much 60miles.Also the GFDL is here in 102hrs some acceleration happening here 102hrs 30.4N 88.5W 332./12.2



Seems to be coming together, but who knows. I still feel that GFDL's persistance can not be ignored.
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#1513 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:30 pm

Canadian heads toward Alabama!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1514 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:33 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Can you say model agreement? South Central LA is under the gun right now.

Image


Model agreement like that is extremely difficult to argue. I desperately hope that changes.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1515 Postby teal61 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:33 pm

another link for the 12z Hwrf....its dead on at this stage, not that hard to be this early in the run though.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1516 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:37 pm

924
WHXX01 KWBC 281834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080828 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 1800 080829 0600 080829 1800 080830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 76.2W 18.7N 78.1W 19.7N 80.3W 20.6N 82.8W
BAMD 18.0N 76.2W 18.1N 77.6W 18.7N 79.4W 19.7N 81.5W
BAMM 18.0N 76.2W 18.3N 77.9W 19.0N 79.9W 19.9N 82.2W
LBAR 18.0N 76.2W 18.2N 77.3W 19.0N 78.9W 20.1N 81.0W
SHIP 60KTS 72KTS 82KTS 88KTS
DSHP 60KTS 48KTS 61KTS 68KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 1800 080831 1800 080901 1800 080902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.6N 85.3W 23.4N 89.6W 25.1N 92.2W 26.3N 93.8W
BAMD 21.1N 83.7W 24.4N 87.6W 27.2N 90.2W 28.5N 91.5W
BAMM 21.2N 84.5W 24.1N 88.0W 27.2N 90.0W 28.7N 91.1W
LBAR 21.5N 83.0W 24.8N 86.1W 27.2N 87.8W 27.9N 88.6W
SHIP 94KTS 96KTS 92KTS 82KTS
DSHP 73KTS 74KTS 70KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 75.5W DIRM12 = 212DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 74.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$
NNNN

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#1517 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:37 pm

Hey, Dean...link to Canadian?
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#1518 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:41 pm

The Bam Suite lines up with everybody else (except Shallow model) Central LA coast, this is the most model agreement to date, imo.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1519 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:42 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Can you say model agreement? South Central LA is under the gun right now.

Image



Though I would NOT relax if I lived in the Upper TX coast. This smells like a Rita type landfall.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1520 Postby Sabanic » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:46 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Can you say model agreement? South Central LA is under the gun right now.

Image



Though I would NOT relax if I lived in the Upper TX coast. This smells like a Rita type landfall.

Not relaxing over here either. Seems like to some if you're east of the LA/MS line you don't exist. A storm approaching SE LA from the South or Southwest would make it's second landfall, if you want to call it that, on the MS coast which puts Mobile smack dab in the middle of the east side of the storm.
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