ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bob rulz]

Jamaica barely hurt this thing. This will easily be back to a hurricane by 2pm (I don't think it will make it in time for the 11am update). I'm guessing 70mph for 11am, although I guess it's possible it could be 75.

[CrazyC83]

Jamaica barely hurt this thing. This will easily be back to a hurricane by 2pm (I don't think it will make it in time for the 11am update). I'm guessing 70mph for 11am, although I guess it's possible it could be 75.

I agree, and it could be a major hurricane by tonight or early tomorrow.

[cpdaman]

cuban radar link is picking up the center but not for long

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

motion per radar appears just like AFM said it would 275-285

No he said it was northwest and would resume a wnw motion later. If you can plot a direction using that radar, you are better amateur met than me

yes later when it gets off of jamaica like it is. i think the latest radar frame thru 1030 will illustrate this cleary (this is with all respect, just trying to clairify information thru discussion)

[KWT]

Hints of a slight bend back towards the WNW in the last few frames but the average motion in the last 3-6hrs does seem to be NW.

[bob rulz]

Jamaica barely hurt this thing. This will easily be back to a hurricane by 2pm (I don't think it will make it in time for the 11am update). I'm guessing 70mph for 11am, although I guess it's possible it could be 75.

I agree, and it could be a major hurricane by tonight or early tomorrow.

I agree as well. There is absolutely nothing to stop this from just exploding as it moves further into the Caribbean today. Today is going to be a wild day.

[Weatherfreak000]

So, im thinking a definite track change at 11?


NHC cant keep a track that has 0 Support.

[weatherguru18]

So, im thinking a definite track change at 11?


NHC cant keep a track that has 0 Support.

Where do you want it to go? There are reliable models on both sides of the track.

[dwg71]

So, im thinking a definite track change at 11?


NHC cant keep a track that has 0 Support.

Where do you want it to go? There are reliable models on both sides of the track.

they went east, a pretty decent amount...

[Scorpion]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

[weatherguru18]

So, im thinking a definite track change at 11?


NHC cant keep a track that has 0 Support.

Where do you want it to go? There are reliable models on both sides of the track.

they went east, a pretty decent amount...

I'm not looking for much of a change. Maybe another 10 mile shift either way.

[KWT]

Weatherfreak000, not really maybe a little further east within the first 48hrs but they probably will still have landfall close to where they have had it for a little while now.

As others have said there is now finally nothing to stop strengthening for the next 36hrs or so, convection still bursting in a big way around the center of circulation.

[dwg71]

I'm not looking for much of a change. Maybe another 10 mile shift either way.

They went east probably over 50 miles.. update is out.

[Cryomaniac]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

Maybe they're seeing something we're not.

[ConvergenceZone]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

yea, I can understand 105KT, because the shear is looking more and more likely, but I can't understand
only 105K in the carib....I think it would get stronger then that. It doesn't take long...

[Derek Ortt]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

you do know they are above ALL OF THE GUIDANCE?

[Tireman4]

I'm not looking for much of a change. Maybe another 10 mile shift either way.

They went east probably over 50 miles.. update is out.

I am trying to find the update. Where might one find that?

[BigB0882]

I'm not seeing the update yet either, pic please?

[poof121]

Effectively a 30 mile shift to the east, 5am 4 day - 29.0N 91W, 10 am 4 day 29.5N 91W...

[dwg71]

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 78.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 78.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 81.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.6N 83.8W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cpdaman]

11 am advisory is out , but not the discussion yet.