ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

886
WTNT62 KNHC 291915
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

Quite a conservative estimate. The data supports 70-75 kt, which is 80 mph at least.

[Just Joshing You]

191100 1859N 07924W 6972 02959 9784 +141 +090 355002 003 023 001 00

[ConvergenceZone]

Quite a conservative estimate. The data supports 70-75 kt, which is 80 mph at least.

It will BOMB from here on out....I would think a cat 2 by sometime tonight, cat 3 by early afternoon tomorrow and before it crosses Cuba, low Cat 4 (just an opinion)

[RL3AO]

Quite a conservative estimate. The data supports 70-75 kt, which is 80 mph at least.

65 or 70kt is about right in my opinion. I don't buy that 79kt SFMR.

[Lowpressure]

Quite a conservative estimate. The data supports 70-75 kt, which is 80 mph at least.

I think they were just set on classifying this a hurricane. Much bigger numbers in the coming days. Or lower numbers (pressure wise). Interesting to see how fast he intensifies now.

[jasons2k]

191100 1859N 07924W 6972 02959 9784 +141 +090 355002 003 023 001 00

In case some are wondering: 978mb, down quite a bit.

Translation: Bombs away.

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 291927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 29/19:11:10Z
B. 18 deg 59 min N
079 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2924 m
D. 78 kt
E. 082 deg 021 nm
F. 157 deg 071 kt
G. 073 deg 027 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 8 C/ 3049 m
J. 14 C/ 3045 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 1007A GUSTAV1 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 19:02:40 Z
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY

[CrazyC83]

Eyewall is fully closed now.

Nothing's gonna stop him now...

[CrazyC83]

Quite a conservative estimate. The data supports 70-75 kt, which is 80 mph at least.

It will BOMB from here on out....I would think a cat 2 by sometime tonight, cat 3 by early afternoon tomorrow and before it crosses Cuba, low Cat 4 (just an opinion)

I think Cat 2 early this evening, Cat 3 overnight and Cat 5 before Cuba personally (again just my opinion).

[Lowpressure]

Let the media chaos begin. Big weekend for many Gulf Coast residents as well as authorities. This could be bad.

[Evil Jeremy]

It is going to bomb. It is forming a very small eye, the signature for RI. Cuba should be ready for a Category 3, and I imagine that the intensity forecast for Gustav in the gulf will be raised.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[RL3AO]

Pressure down at least 4mb in 1hr 51min or 2.16 mb per hour.

[WmE]

Pressure down at least 4mb in 1hr 51min or 2.16 mb per hour.

That meets the criteria for rapid intensification.

[CrazyC83]

Last dropsonde supports 979mb (980/13).

[Lowpressure]

Pressure down at least 4mb in 1hr 51min or 2.16 mb per hour.

Think of what it will be when we wake up tomorrow morning.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure down at least 4mb in 1hr 51min or 2.16 mb per hour.

Think of what it will be when we wake up tomorrow morning.

I think you can drop at least 35-40mb from what it is now.

[Just Joshing You]

Pressure down at least 4mb in 1hr 51min or 2.16 mb per hour.

That meets the criteria for rapid intensification.

No, it doesn't. If it keeps this up for another 10 hours and 9 minutes, then we can talk.

[Lowpressure]

Pressure down at least 4mb in 1hr 51min or 2.16 mb per hour.

Think of what it will be when we wake up tomorrow morning.

I think you can drop at least 35-40mb from what it is now.

About what I was thinking 939-942mb by 8 am tomorrow.

[dwg71]

distance between vdm 15 minutes north and 16 minutes west, just about due NW.