ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[dwg71]

My cousin and her husband and kids are leaving Galveston tomorrow. They aren't taking any chances. They are boarding up tomorrow. In the event of a landfall, their house would be under 10' of water.

A southwest LA coast would not push and surge to Galveston... It would have to go west of Galveston

[Just Joshing You]

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the hurricane is a physical force right, like a spinning wheel somewhat. And when it comes against land such as Cuba, wont the land slow down the first leading edge causing it to take a right? Just like a spinning top hitting a different surface? So with that said, why do none of the models or anything take that into consideration, did that not just happen with Fay? And with just a small deviation down over cuba will result in a big deviation in track, like say 200-300 miles east of where it is?

Fay is a REAL bad example of land interaction effecting a Tropical Storm.

But another thing is, it isn't foretasted to stay over Cuba for very long. The center may be over for.. 3 - 4 hours? Maybe a tiny bit more.

[Lowpressure]

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the hurricane is a physical force right, like a spinning wheel somewhat. And when it comes against land such as Cuba, wont the land slow down the first leading edge causing it to take a right? Just like a spinning top hitting a different surface? So with that said, why do none of the models or anything take that into consideration, did that not just happen with Fay? And with just a small deviation down over cuba will result in a big deviation in track, like say 200-300 miles east of where it is?

Gustav will plow through the flat tip of Cuba unabated. May adjust course somewhat (very slightly), but just another variable at this point that is impossible to factor in.

[weatherguru18]

My cousin and her husband and kids are leaving Galveston tomorrow. They aren't taking any chances. They are boarding up tomorrow. In the event of a landfall, their house would be under 10' of water.

A southwest LA coast would not push and surge to Galveston... It would have to go west of Galveston

Well they aren't taking any chances. Especially as wishy washy as the models have been. I've said all along that this prolly wouldn't be a N.O. storm. But I was shot down...now look.

[mvtrucking]

After this hunter leaves Gus, how long before the next flight?

A NOAA2 flight is scheduled to depart in a few minutes.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 29/1800, 30/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1007A GUSTAV
C. 29/1515Z
D. 18.7N 79.9W
E. 29/1700Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 30/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1107A GUSTAV
C. 29/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42
A. RESEARCH
B. NOAA2 1207A GUSTAV
C. 29/2000Z
D. NA
E. 29/2200Z TO 30/0200Z
F. 10,000 TO 14,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 70
A. 30/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1307A GUSTAV
C. 30/0315Z
D. 19.6N 81.7W
E. 30/0500Z TO 30/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE
A. RESEARCH
B. NOAA3 1407A GUSTAV
C. 30/0800Z
D. NA
E. 30/1000Z TO 30/1400Z
F. 10,000 TO 14,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
G-IV TAKEOFF FOR 30/1730Z. WP-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

[93superstorm]

It'll be interesting when he goes near those Islands. Extremly high heat content:

[TideJoe]

My cousin and her husband and kids are leaving Galveston tomorrow. They aren't taking any chances. They are boarding up tomorrow. In the event of a landfall, their house would be under 10' of water.

A southwest LA coast would not push and surge to Galveston... It would have to go west of Galveston

Well they aren't taking any chances. Especially as wishy washy as the models have been. I've said all along that this prolly wouldn't be a N.O. storm. But I was shot down...now look.

This storm is wayyyyyy too far out to be beating your chest. Just keep in mind that the 2 of the more reliable models are still forecasting a LA landfall.

[BigB0882]

My cousin and her husband and kids are leaving Galveston tomorrow. They aren't taking any chances. They are boarding up tomorrow. In the event of a landfall, their house would be under 10' of water.

A southwest LA coast would not push and surge to Galveston... It would have to go west of Galveston

Well they aren't taking any chances. Especially as wishy washy as the models have been. I've said all along that this prolly wouldn't be a N.O. storm. But I was shot down...now look.

Mmmkay, we are STILL 4 days out. Save the "I told you so's" until then.

[Just Joshing You]

Do you guys think it will be upped to 70-75 kt at next advisory?

[93superstorm]

Also the Depth is very deep, tonight later this evenin this is going all out imo:

[oyster_reef]

My cousin and her husband and kids are leaving Galveston tomorrow. They aren't taking any chances. They are boarding up tomorrow. In the event of a landfall, their house would be under 10' of water.

A southwest LA coast would not push and surge to Galveston... It would have to go west of Galveston

Well they aren't taking any chances. Especially as wishy washy as the models have been. I've said all along that this prolly wouldn't be a N.O. storm. But I was shot down...now look.

Now Look?? The NHC is currently forcasting Cat 3 within 70 miles from the city... and on the bad side!

[Lowpressure]

Also the Depth is very deep, tonight later this evenin this is going all out imo:

Gulf seems cooler than normal above 26 north, doesn't it. Gus may peak in the Southern Gulf, then lose a bit on approach.

[AZRainman]

AZRainman wouldn't know a joke if it jumped up and slapped him lol.

Oops, my bad....These tropical systems are not giving a whole lot of reasons to chuckle today, but I do have a sense of humor

[weatherguru18]

Joe Bastardi on Fox. Claims could be a 5 before cuba

[BigB0882]

Also the Depth is very deep, tonight later this evenin this is going all out imo:

Gulf seems cooler than normal above 26 north, doesn't it. Gus may peak in the Southern Gulf, then lose a bit on approach.

That is a depth chart, so if you are looking at that chart the waters may or may not be cooler than normal but they are certainly not as deep.

[weatherguru18]

He also showed Hanna coming into Miami as a 3/4 and then moving into the Panhandle of Florida. Absurd!

[pablolopez26]

Hey guys, the new models are out and the westward shift seems more prevalent this time around.

Im still leaning more towards a Tx/La border hit.

[Sanibel]

This isn't what you want to see. The center is getting its act back together with a vengeance. It's doing a full cycle "fist" behavior which means the system is trying to get back up to speed as fast as possible. Worse, this is happening when it is obviously moving faster under the ridge. Right down trop points now which shouldn't make people in the projected track feel any better. No Fay this time.

[Mattie]

If you are tired of looking at weather models - this is some good information about what the hurricane will impact on the LA/TX coastline for the oil industry. . . . Neat graphic for the weather models using google earth, too.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4463

[Sabanic]

I'm beginning to think we may be clear on this end.