ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

Anybody know when the trough influence should become apparent (IF) it is there?

[Sabanic]

5PM

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

A due NW course from it's present position would make landfall at the Mouth of the MS.

Gonna be a very interesting Labor Day Weekend

[ronjon]

Pretty good trough in the south-central GOM now. I suppose the models anticipate this trough to weaken and migrate west. Hmmm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[bostonseminole]

205230 1906N 07939W 6954 02958 9756 +144 +090 101007 009 999 999 03

[Sabanic]

Pretty good trough in the south-central GOM now. I suppose the models anticipate this trough to weaken and migrate west. Hmmm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

I've got to ask . . . rj what would that possibly do to the track?

[Lowpressure]

205230 1906N 07939W 6954 02958 9756 +144 +090 101007 009 999 999 03

Pressure still dropping.

[shawn67]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/291503.shtml?

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292100
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO
FORM...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
THAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM...AND TO SOME DEPTH
BENEATH THE SURFACE...SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA. EVEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA. PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT
LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM'S STRENGTH...AND ALL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF...AND
DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT
96 HOURS...GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE...NOW
MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10...AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE
THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL
REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS. THERE ARE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS...AND IN HOW STRONG
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS. THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS WITH
THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
GUSTAV...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FARTHER EAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE NOTABLE
MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS ONCE AGAIN
IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.2N 79.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 90 KT...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
36HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 85 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.0W 55 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CajunMama]

Reposting this for the 3rd time.....

Why am i finding so many posts in here repititous and chatty? If you want to discuss & chat, visit the chatroom. People are going to be getting suspensions soon and they're not going to like it. We've been deleting so many threads in here that DON'T BELONG IN HERE. Is it that hard to stay on the subject? If someone just posted what you wanted to say, does it really need repeated? Think before you post.

Suggested reading:
REMEMBER!! This is a forum, NOT a chat room!! Must Read!

[Sanibel]

Pretty good trough in the south-central GOM now. I suppose the models anticipate this trough to weaken and migrate west. Hmmm...

ronjon: If you want to see why the models turned this more west just take a look at the southward-diving High over Alabama in your same WV loop.

[RL3AO]

Down 7mb in 3 hr 31 min or 1.99 mb/hr.

[Sanibel]

One last point - If the trough over the Gulf is upper level you would expect a stronger storm with higher tops to be more influenced by it - right?


Last three center readings:

984
980
977


Hello! Can you say BOOM?

[Stormcenter]

Interesting that NHC did not change the track given the models, they must be waiting to see if it's a trend or not. Boarding up tomorrow if this doesn't change...

That's exactly what they are doing. IMO

[canegrl04]

Down 7mb in 3 hr 31 min or 1.99 mb/hr.

I think overnight Gus will turn into a cat 2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has around 24 hours to become what ever it wents to become over the hottest tchp, I know it can do it, because I seen it before. I will say 120 knots/942 millibars tomarrow for the 5pm est advisory. That is just a guest...

[dwg71]

Pretty good trough in the south-central GOM now. I suppose the models anticipate this trough to weaken and migrate west. Hmmm...

ronjon: If you want to see why the models turned this more west just take a look at the southward-diving High over Alabama in your same WV loop.

If Im not mistaken that is not the high in question that will steer gus, i believe that area of weather is futher out west... Not sure though. They are talking about a high centered over Ohio Valley

[jlauderdal]

looks like nhc had key west do a special balloon launch for the modeling


A SPECIAL 18Z RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALS A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN WEAKLY SHEARED EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 25000FT.
WINDS VEER TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THE SFC-
10000FT LAYER MEAN WIND IS NOW ABOUT 070/18KT.

[Dave]

We will have a high pressure ridge over southern great lakes & ohio valley in here tomorrrow but it pulls NE in 48 hrs.

24 Hrs:

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/nav.php?current=2

48 Hrs:

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/nav.php?current=4

[Ed1]

Reposting this for the 3rd time.....

Why am i finding so many posts in here repititous and chatty? If you want to discuss & chat, visit the chatroom. People are going to be getting suspensions soon and they're not going to like it. We've been deleting so many threads in here that DON'T BELONG IN HERE. Is it that hard to stay on the subject? If someone just posted what you wanted to say, does it really need repeated? Think before you post.

Suggested reading:
REMEMBER!! This is a forum, NOT a chat room!! Must Read!

....sigh

CajunMama has mentioned this several times...but her suggestion for chatting seems to go ignored.

Even now..right after she post it..the thread goes back to chatty chat.

Please.. Storm2k does have a very easy IRC text style chat room for Storm chat.
and it's fun to post there.

Ed

[txag2005]

We will have a high pressure ridge over southern great lakes & ohio valley in here tomorrrow but it pulls NE in 48 hrs.

24 Hrs:

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/nav.php?current=2

48 Hrs:

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/nav.php?current=4

How does this affect the storm track?