ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[njweather]

0000z

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

Seems to have a significant westerly component. Is this expected?

[JtSmarts]

Really looks to be stair-stepping, which can be expected as it continues to strengthen.

[rtd2]

0000z

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

Seems to have a significant westerly component. Is this expected?

from 8pm edt update:GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.



Wobble

[tolakram]

0000z

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

Seems to have a significant westerly component. Is this expected?

I added a wider view to my post. Many times each advisory will show a wobble or seem to show a direction change which isn't real. It's best to back off an look at additional points. A wobble at this point will mean a lot to the Caymen islands though!

[KWT]

Pretty scary run from the HWRF there, got to pray that doesn't happen!

tolakram, that does suggest a motion to the WNW over the last 3hrs, lets see if that continues, overall its motion is NW over the previous 6-12hrs.

[SoupBone]

Maybe I'm missing something since I've been gone all day but when did this suddenly become a Texas storm? What I mean is that I know Texas to Mobile is in the cone but the tracks haven't shifted off of Louisiana for several days. I know the've turned a tad more west but what makes you guys think Texas? Is there something I missed today?

[6SpeedTA95]

Gustav has garnered up a little forward momentum now. At 11, 12, 13 mph SST's are very high and TCHP is plenty high for this to become quite a storm. The next full update is three hours away but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a pressure drop at that time. I also wouldn't be surprised to wakeup to a pretty stout cat 2 tomorrow morning.

[rtd2]

Maybe I'm missing something since I've been gone all day but when did this suddenly become a Texas storm? What I mean is that I know Texas to Mobile is in the cone but the tracks haven't shifted off of Louisiana for several days. I know the've turned a tad more west but what makes you guys think Texas? Is there something I missed today?

You know how it goes around here...Folks hang on model trends from one run to another..I would say to wait and see NOBODY's out of nothing!

[tolakram]

Maybe I'm missing something since I've been gone all day but when did this suddenly become a Texas storm? What I mean is that I know Texas to Mobile is in the cone but the tracks haven't shifted off of Louisiana for several days. I know the've turned a tad more west but what makes you guys think Texas? Is there something I missed today?

Just stop. It's not anyone's storm until it gets closer and the discussion about it just makes people look like fools, honestly. Everyone in the general path of the storm should be prepared and look at the 3 day track in the next day or so to decide if they need to evacuate. In my opinion the chatter about it needs to stop and the users suspended for spreading information that has no scientific backing.

[Just Joshing You]

Wow did anyone (everyone) just see that big blowup?

[Just Joshing You]

Wow did anyone (everyone) just see that big blowup?

[6SpeedTA95]

Maybe I'm missing something since I've been gone all day but when did this suddenly become a Texas storm? What I mean is that I know Texas to Mobile is in the cone but the tracks haven't shifted off of Louisiana for several days. I know the've turned a tad more west but what makes you guys think Texas? Is there something I missed today?

I think most agreed the GFDL over pensacola was quite aggressive with breaking down the ridge. Now it appears that those were in fact a bit overdone, and the fact that Gustav has moved at a tepid pace has made it tough to model. If we see it continuing to move at 9+ mph the model runs should regroup and we should have a much more accurate picture tomorrow of just where he is headed.

[93superstorm]

Very impressive burst:

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane just reported 971mb with 42 kt winds on that spot (that would translate to 967mb).

[SoupBone]

Maybe I'm missing something since I've been gone all day but when did this suddenly become a Texas storm? What I mean is that I know Texas to Mobile is in the cone but the tracks haven't shifted off of Louisiana for several days. I know the've turned a tad more west but what makes you guys think Texas? Is there something I missed today?

Just stop. It's not anyone's storm until it gets closer and the discussion about it just makes people look like fools, honestly. Everyone in the general path of the storm should be prepared and look at the 3 day track in the next day or so to decide if they need to evacuate. In my opinion the chatter about it needs to stop and the users suspended for spreading information that has no scientific backing.

I assume the smiley means you were messing with me. I've honestly been gone all day and I read through the last few pages with a big focus on Texas. I absolutely know that NO ONE is staking their claim on it I just see a lot more talk of Texas.

[rtd2]

Maybe I'm missing something since I've been gone all day but when did this suddenly become a Texas storm? What I mean is that I know Texas to Mobile is in the cone but the tracks haven't shifted off of Louisiana for several days. I know the've turned a tad more west but what makes you guys think Texas? Is there something I missed today?

I think most agreed the GFDL over pensacola was quite aggressive with breaking down the ridge. Now it appears that those were in fact a bit overdone, and the fact that Gustav has moved at a tepid pace has made it tough to model. If we see it continuing to move at 9+ mph the model runs should regroup and we should have a much more accurate picture tomorrow of just where he is headed.

You should make a sticky out of this answer...Its one of the best i've seen to help the right-left folks

[RL3AO]

Recon missed the center.

[CrazyC83]

Recon missed the center.

Makes sense. That 971 would translate to 967 with those winds.

[SoupBone]

Maybe I'm missing something since I've been gone all day but when did this suddenly become a Texas storm? What I mean is that I know Texas to Mobile is in the cone but the tracks haven't shifted off of Louisiana for several days. I know the've turned a tad more west but what makes you guys think Texas? Is there something I missed today?

I think most agreed the GFDL over pensacola was quite aggressive with breaking down the ridge. Now it appears that those were in fact a bit overdone, and the fact that Gustav has moved at a tepid pace has made it tough to model. If we see it continuing to move at 9+ mph the model runs should regroup and we should have a much more accurate picture tomorrow of just where he is headed.

Ahhh...great explanation. I appreciate it. Didn't the GFDL shift a bit to the west right over Terrebonne Parish?

[KWT]

Yep that burst is really impressive, what we need to watch is whether the eye clears itself back out again in the next 2-3hrs, i'd imagine it will do.

Probably going to see some pretty rapid strengthening occuring now, when you get such bursts in the eyewall it usually means RI is either underway or gonig to start.