ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[BigB0882]

I measure a 3-hr movement toward 292 deg (barely WNW) at 5 kts. Only 15nm movement in 3 hrs.

Barely as in almost W or almost NW?

[Shoshana]

The minimum central pressure in Gustav is 975 now. What is the lowest recorded pressure in a hurricane? Thank you for answering.

Wilma at 882 for the Atlantic, but the overall lowest officially recorded was the monster hurricane Typhoon Tip in the Pacific. Typhoon Tip in August 1979 registered 870. According to Wikipedia, Cyclone Monica (Australia 2006) had an unofficial estimate of 869.

I'd add something about Gustav, but everything I was going to say has been said 10,000 times.

[dhweather]

NHC upped the winds to 80 mph.[/quote]

also have a cat 4 in central gulf.[/quote]

With no shear and the loop current, all things are possible.

[tolakram]

[dhweather]

I measure a 3-hr movement toward 292 deg (barely WNW) at 5 kts. Only 15nm movement in 3 hrs.

Barely as in almost W or almost NW?

270 degrees is due west
292.5 is due wnw

It's just barely wnw

[attallaman]

Wow, I've seen people playfully wanting to take ownership of a storm for their area, but never so violently as the last couple days in here. We're all awed by the power of these storms, or we wouldn't be here, but I really don't understand the attitudes I'm seeing in here the last couple of days. After going thru Wilma's cat 1 conditions in S. Fla in 2005, and having my home JUST this month become inhabitable again from the damage she did, it just blows my mind why anyone would want a storm with Gustav's potential anywhere near their home and loved ones. I really enjoy seeing everyone's comments, the great info, the great links, everything that makes this place fun. I'm just asking as a long time user, please everyone, lets get back to the task at hand, do what we love and track these storms, help everyone that may regrettably be in the path, and take a deep breath and be respectful. Some of these posts from a select few people, are just uncalled for.

Sorry if this is out of place and not my job, but I just felt the need to say something.

Its a strange phenomena - usually referred to as -removed-. Why anyone would want a major hurricane to visit them is beyond me.

I'll have to agree after having gone through Katrina.

[Innotech]

its looking increasingly likely that I might either experience the eye or very close to it. That probably means tornadoes, screaming winds, and all sorts of other fun. My mom is panicking. My only real concern is at the house I live at on the southside, which is below I10, although its in a reasonably protected neighborhood. The problem is a couple big trees out front. I think theyll be ok but Im packing alot of stuff into my indoor bathroom just to be sure.

[BigB0882]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the track continue to shift West. The movement isn't NW enough IMO to landfall in central LA or possibly even in SW LA. Unless it takes a more NNW run for a bit, I am currently seeing it heading for upper TX coast. This is just my observations from the past days movement and is in no way a forecast.

[niner21]

I'd rather be in the middle of the cone at this point... Murphy's law and all.

[capepoint]

Its a strange phenomena - usually referred to as -removed-. Why anyone would want a major hurricane to visit them is beyond me.[/quote]


Cause they are mostly kids and have never been through one. After they go a for a week without A/C, internet, Pizza Hut, and X-Box, they wont ever wish for one again.

[dwg71]

nhc has not moved their track for three runs now. I would pay great attention if I live in LA, state line to state line. NHC has a central LA landfall in just over 3 days, NHC is pretty good on three day track. Though this forecast may have less confidence.

[HURAKAN]

[dhweather]

nhc has not moved their track for three runs now. I would pay great attention if I live in LA, state line to state line.

VERY SOUND ADVICE!!!!

[Innotech]

Its a strange phenomena - usually referred to as -removed-. Why anyone would want a major hurricane to visit them is beyond me.

Cause they are mostly kids and have never been through one. After they go a for a week without A/C, internet, Pizza Hut, and X-Box, they wont ever wish for one again. [/quote]
Ive been through 3 now. The side effects of Rita, Andrew, and a direct hit by Lili. Its not very fun but if you are in a sturdy building away from trees, its safe enough. Make sure the place is on high ground, has good interior walls, and not too many windows just in case. I also wouldnt recommend staying in ANY shelter near to the coast. These should be pretty obvious guidelines to anyone whos dealt with severe weather before though.

[Sanibel]

There's Gus opening his eye. Right on trop points.

[yzerfan]

While water is good, my friend gave me a tip to just buy carbonated soda's with lots of Calories as it will give you needed calorie intake when there isn't much food to have.

True, but its a double edged sword as caffiene can contribute to dehydration.

So buy a bunch of caffiene free coke.

*disclaimer: I'm not a health care professional, just a long time endurance athlete in the Southeast, so I've had to learn about good hydration in hot & humid conditions. Take advice as you will*

The effects of caffeine on dehydration are vastly overstated by most people. There's not enough caffeine in soda to cause dehydration. It's actually common for runners in marathons and ironman triathlons to drink flat coke once you get past halfway in the race. (at a point when you can't afford to be dehydrated)

How it works is that drinks with caffeine are slightly less effective at hydration than non-caffinated drinks, something along the lines of you'd need 16 ounces of coke or pepsi in order to be the equivalent of 14 ounces of water.

Also, it's possible to drink too much water and cause critical health issues because of that. If you're trying to rehydrate in hot weather and drinking mostly water, and you suddenly find yourself craving something salty, it can be a sign your electrolytes are out of whack. So eat something salty or stick with a sports drink like Gatorade that has sodium added to it because it's designed to replace what's being sweated out.

Also it's a sign you're noticeably dehydrated when Gatorade or Powerade starts to taste good at room temperature.

[jdjaguar]

its looking increasingly likely that I might either experience the eye or very close to it. That probably means tornadoes, screaming winds, and all sorts of other fun. My mom is panicking. My only real concern is at the house I live at on the southside, which is below I10, although its in a reasonably protected neighborhood. The problem is a couple big trees out front. I think theyll be ok but Im packing alot of stuff into my indoor bathroom just to be sure.

I would secure your home and hit the highway.

Sunday at the latest.

good luck and godspeed.

[RainWind]

LA is definitely watching! I work with people all along the coast, and they are anxiously watching and preparing. Jindal is doing a great job, but, how can you ever be totally ready for something like this. Glad to see Gus is moving so that we can get this over with! RW

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 300301
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY
ALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING...AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED
88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND
MAXIMUM. RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT
SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA...BUT THE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW
GUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN
SHOWS SOME SPREAD. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL
ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN IS SLOWER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT LIES IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA...MAY BE
SLOWING INTENSIFICATION. GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS
PASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR. THUS...THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT...THE LGEM 97 KT...THE
HWRF 114 KT...THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT...AND THE GFDL
129 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE
FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES... WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.5N 80.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W 45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[capepoint]

Its a strange phenomena - usually referred to as -removed-. Why anyone would want a major hurricane to visit them is beyond me.

Cause they are mostly kids and have never been through one. After they go a for a week without A/C, internet, Pizza Hut, and X-Box, they wont ever wish for one again.

Ive been through 3 now. The side effects of Rita, Andrew, and a direct hit by Lili. Its not very fun but if you are in a sturdy building away from trees, its safe enough. Make sure the place is on high ground, has good interior walls, and not too many windows just in case. I also wouldnt recommend staying in ANY shelter near to the coast. These should be pretty obvious guidelines to anyone whos dealt with severe weather before though.[/quote]

I have lived on the southern outer banks of North Carolina for 45 years. You don't have to tell me anything about hurricanes. I forget how many we have had, although thankfully there has not been a cat 4 or 5 here in my lifetime. Just the inconvenience alone is reason enough not to want one...