ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Have you seen the Euro run? This would be like a one - two punch to South Florida (like Frances & Jeanne).
I guess the second storm is 97L? Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/

the euro has been very good the last 10 days sniffing out the overall pattern, it hasnt been perfect but its been very very good with the overall situation, that doesnt mean it continues to be good BUT pay attention to it

[AJC3]

Boy, Hanna is really losing the battle with the ULL to it's west. That tight spiral of that past few days is no more. Looks more like an oval shaped football. If this trend continues, you may see Hanna either 1) open up, or 2) have a new low level center for beneath the convection to it's east (or both).


edited due to directionally challenged pro-met

[jlauderdal]

That would not be good Jim.

well it seems to be way too aggressive with hanna so maybe the party is over for the euro, lets see what happens

[jlauderdal]

Boy, Hanna is really losing the battle with the ULL to it's east. That tight spiral of that past few days is no more. Looks more like an oval shaped football. If this trend continues, you may see Hanna either 1) open up, or 2) have a new low level center for beneath the convection to it's east (or both).

that ULL is to its west,correct?

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look that bad!

[jlauderdal]

Doesn't look that bad!

fay looked good around PR to and nada at the surface so lets see, its been a fighter thats for sure, if we can get that ULL to weaken we have something cooking but until then....

[wzrgirl1]

considering it's hostile conditions, she is surely hanging in there...but what is going on underneath, is the LLC still under the convection?

[AJC3]

Doesn't look that bad!

Convection-wise, sure, Sandy...there's a lot of deep convection east of the center. However structurally, the low cloud lines show an elongating oval-shaped center...meaning the exposed center is having big time trouble maintaining vorticity (cyclonic spin). With the convection displaced eastward, the latent heat and pressure falls should occur in that area. I suspect if this trend continues, there will be a center reformation.

[weatherwindow]

Doesn't look that bad!

Convection-wise, sure, Sandy...there's a lot of deep convection east of the center. However structurally, the low cloud lines show an elongating oval-shaped center...meaning the exposed center is having big time trouble maintaining vorticity (cyclonic spin). With the convection displaced eastward, the latent heat and pressure falls should occur in that area. I suspect if this trend continues, there will be a center reformation.

do you have any time frame in mind, tony?

[AJC3]

I would think it has to occur today-tonight. If not, then there's a good chance it opens up into a wave. However, I think the center will try to tighten up/reform back into the deep convection.

[cpdaman]

can anyone give me a center locale. looking at the usually trusty good ir2 i can't find it

she was moving almost due west yesterday and then stalled practically till the last time i saw her around 245 am, where's my hanna now? did she finally decide to gain some latitude

almost looks like she raced nnw since the wee hours to near 23.3 66.3 (reminding myself she dove SW, then rotated and stalled last nite after encountering some higher shear) .

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC Best Track has no change in intensity,still at 45kts.

AL, 08, 2008083012, , BEST, 0, 218N, 661W, 45, 1000, TS,

[greels]

I know many folks on this board focus their thoughts on where this might possibly hit on the US mainland/coast.

Do I have reason for serious concern for myself and my family, living as we do in the Turks & Caicos Islands?

[jlauderdal]

I know many folks on this board focus their thoughts on where this might possibly hit on the US mainland/coast.

Do I have reason for serious concern for myself and my family, living as we do in the Turks & Caicos Islands?

watch it, it could easily come your way and intensity is tricky, read the nhc discussion, very low confidence on track and intensity

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0857.shtml

[punkyg]

where exactly is the ULL?

I looked and couldn't find. did it finally dissapated or is it still effecting the storm.

[Blown Away]

Boy, Hanna is really losing the battle with the ULL to it's west. That tight spiral of that past few days is no more. Looks more like an oval shaped football. If this trend continues, you may see Hanna either 1) open up, or 2) have a new low level center for beneath the convection to it's east (or both).
edited due to directionally challenged pro-met

Looking at the visible I was thinking I see convection building towards the N side of Hanna, yesterday it was all on the E side. The ULL doesn't seem as strong as yesterday and it's not as obvious on the visible today. It appears the LLC is not as tight as yesterday, but latest fix does not make the LLC totally exposed. I was thinking Hanna was better this morning, but that's why you are a pro and I'm not.

[AJC3]

where exactly is the ULL?

I looked and couldn't find. did it finally dissapated or is it still effecting the storm.

It's very much alive and well. Center appears to be near 23N 68W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[boca]

I'm still concerned about Hanna but I'm not on red alert because of the hostile conditions Hanna will endure. I pm'd one of the mets and if Hanna doesn't relocate under the dep convection she will open up to a wave.I'm now on yellow alert stand by.

[AJC3]

Boy, Hanna is really losing the battle with the ULL to it's west. That tight spiral of that past few days is no more. Looks more like an oval shaped football. If this trend continues, you may see Hanna either 1) open up, or 2) have a new low level center for beneath the convection to it's east (or both).
edited due to directionally challenged pro-met

Looking at the visible I was thinking I see convection building towards the N side of Hanna, yesterday it was all on the E side. The ULL doesn't seem as strong as yesterday and it's not as obvious on the visible today. It appears the LLC is not as tight as yesterday, but latest fix does not make the LLC totally exposed. I was thinking Hanna was better this morning, but that's why you are a pro and I'm not.

Check the longitude of the 12Z BT fix...it's actually a few tenths east of the 09Z fix. What you can take from that is that the elongated center may be trying to tighten up and tuck itself back into the convection farther east. Either that or Lix fixed the center position at 09Z a bit too far to the west, but I think it's probably the latter, since you could see a small, tighter spiral on IR2 most of the night.

[DESTRUCTION5]

FWIW it looks like the 06zGFS has a Monster system Just E of SFL paralleling the coast and it looks strong for GFS Standards.