ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

More intense convection is wrapping around the center.

[carversteve]

Just a question..What are the chances Gus hits the gulf coast as a cat. 4..I know a trough is digging down but is it that strong to cause Gus to weaken..Or is it a combanation of that and slightly cooler water and more..Or does he stay potentially that strong?

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is a Cat 4 right now with the last Recon data. It also seems that the pressure gradient tightened up to a more traditional level for the Atlantic.

[Steve]

>>More intense convection is wrapping around the center.

Buchtel on Channel 4 noted that the NNW motion may have been induced by a slight strengthening phase. Think it was just her theory, but you never know.

Steve

[inda_iwall]

This may not be the place, but in fact you proved some things, charlie was headed to Tampa until he got close to florida, then hooked right, also when he was almost going to Cuba he again turned right slighty n track and Ivan did the same when it neared the tip of cuba, and when it neared Florida. Fay did it this year too. but that does not help that Ivan went west when it got near Jamaica, there is just something about Jamaica that does not allow an eye to pass over it Maybe the large smoke plumes? But I even went back over my notes from college meteorology and it has it in there that interaction with land causes it to move right, it is a mass, like a big spinning bike wheel or top.

[jrod]

A less than perfect eye is going to wobble and a poor indicator of the storms true direction, look at the mass as a whole over a decent amount of time to get an idea of what the heading is. I am seeing a fairly steady NW heading maybe slighty north of NW in the past 6 hours.

[canegrl04]

Looks like Gustav making cat 5 is a real possibility,but likely to weaken some before hitting LA.

[amawea]

There is a High located over northwest Texas that I think is what has caused a more northerly component to its path. This high is progged to move off to the northeast later today and tonight. I believe Gustav may go back to a more westerly path when the high eases away. We will see, but it is right between the influences of the high in the atlantic and the high over Tx.

JMO.

[Sanibel]

Can somebody help me with Cuban radar? I can't bring it up on their link.


The eye could be more on NHC track than it looks on satellite. I want to see it on radar.

[soonertwister]

I'm not sure how much credibility you can attach to this report, but a recent ship report from well east and south of Gustav reported wave heights approaching 33 feet!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

[BigA]

This should work as far as Cuban radar http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[PauleinHouston]

Working on Cuban radar...

But, check out this link...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_nws_radar_floater

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm not sure how much credibility you can attach to this report, but a recent ship report from well east and south of Gustav reported wave heights approaching 33 feet!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

That is not good...If He carries it to the Gulf coast they are in Trouble..

[ciclonson]

Also look at key west long range... I know the distance thing, but you can see it now.

[dwg71]

center is near 21.0 N 81.9 W, was supposed to be at 21.2 and 82.7 at 4PM today per NHC forecast. Its not on points. Not sure how much they adjust it at 10Pm, I say a smidge east at landfall and a smidge faster.

[HurricaneHunter914]

MONSTER!!!


So beautiful, but deadly. With a NNW jog like that, that put's LA in more danger than ever! Stay safe over there!

[tolakram]

center is near 21.0 N 81.9 W, was supposed to be at 21.2 and 82.7 at 4PM today per NHC forecast. Its not on points. Not sure how much they adjust it at 10Pm, I say a smidge east at landfall and a smidge faster.

It's wobbling, don't start focusing on the points or trying to predict landfall location when it's still 48 hours away, in my opinion.

[6SpeedTA95]

Guys from what I've read this morning and model data I've seen the landfall for this storm is still VERY much up in the air. There's a stout high pressure system lingering in texas/southern oklahoma that could act as a blocking high forcing it east (if the high doesn't move much) or if the high moves north and east as predicted it could cause the storm to batter the coast from east central LA all the way to galveston bay which would be quite devastating to the infrastructure in the area.

[HouTXmetro]

Guys from what I've read this morning and model data I've seen the landfall for this storm is still VERY much up in the air. There's a stout high pressure system lingering in texas/southern oklahoma that could act as a blocking high forcing it east (if the high doesn't move much) or if the high moves north and east as predicted it could cause the storm to batter the coast from east central LA all the way to galveston bay which would be quite devastating to the infrastructure in the area.

Check out the WV Loop, that high is strong and building. I'm glad you brought this up because I was thinking the same thing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html