ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[dhweather]

People that line in the area from the mouth of the Mississippi to Pass Christian know they are prone to huge storm surges due to the geography of the area. Once the SE winds start pushing water up in the area, the only place it can go is inland.

Hey DH - Good to see you again!! Been wondering where you've been but Hurrycane filled us in.

Let's not forget those east of PC who too (self included!!) found out what a huge storm surge can do. I was really hoping Katrina was a once-in-a-lifetime event - at least for our neck of the woods. Let's hope this isn't a repeat.......... Don't think most (again, self included) on the MGC could stand another this soon.

hey hey hey!!

Man, I'm praying its not, but things are not looking good. I just have a feeling that the eastern side of the envelope the NHC has is it. (this is not an official forecast and do not treat it as such). Regardless, the Labor Day hurricane of 2008 is going to be bad.

[Nexus]

I'm curious to see how a storm like this reacts to passing over a strip of land like western Cuba at 15 mph.

[TampaFl]

5:00pm position - map courtesy BoatUS.com

[Dean4Storms]

Folks, I understand the cone. I've been following weather longer than most of you have been alive...40yrs. I'm saying in this situation with this big/strong a storm this is a product that needs to be adjusted, it will be confusing to SOME people who tomorrow get up and look at a newspaper and see they are not in the cone. It is that simple a point that I am making. There are people out there who don't follow the weather or the graphic meanings like any of us do.

I understand what you are saying...I think maybe instead of the NHC adjusting this cone (which is based on statistical error), the news organizations should possibly use the wind speed probability map IN ADDITION to the landfall cone. The wind speed probability is almost always skewed to the right, since the strongest winds extend outward from the center more to the right than to the left.

That would be a good idea there. That cone could fool some people in the watch area come tomorrow morning that even though they are under the watch the cone graphic means it isn't coming there way, it leads to confusion I think. Maybe the NHC needs to think about the wind/surge graphics included with the cone???

[micktooth]

This wobble watching and N.O. is doomed talk is really getting ridiculous.
What is the point of all of it? The NHC will nail the track on this one and
you'll wonder why you posted so many wobble posts.[/quote]


This isn't the forum to argue what is good and bad for NOLA. But as someone who was directly impacted by Katrina, I think it does warrant some concern. Notice my avatar, I am now in Colorado because of Katrina! I have relatives that are scared to death. NOLA doesn't need a direct hit by the eye to have potentially catastrophic devastation!

[StJoe]

I'm curious to see how a storm like this reacts to passing over a strip of land like western Cuba at 15 mph.

probably won't make a difference at all.

[KWT]

Looks like this has taken a decent wobble to the NNW in the last hour, steering currents suggests this is probably still feeling the weakness but the track should shift back to a NW heading soon and stay on that sort of heading, but the trend slightly east is very bad for N.O.

This wobble watching and N.O. is doomed talk is really getting ridiculous.
What is the point of all of it? The NHC will nail the track on this one and
you'll wonder why you posted so many wobble posts.

Oh yeah your probably right its probabvly stair stepping but obviously the fact is N.O is only a little to the NE of the track, wouldn't take much of a track change at all for this to hit....esp given the track record of hurricanes shifting slightly east just before landfall...

[Nederlander]

I'm curious to see how a storm like this reacts to passing over a strip of land like western Cuba at 15 mph.

probably won't make a difference at all.

I agree 100% ... wont phase him a bit... passing over some pretty flat land for a very short period of time..

[CrazyC83]

I'm curious to see how a storm like this reacts to passing over a strip of land like western Cuba at 15 mph.

probably won't make a difference at all.

I agree 100% ... wont phase him a bit... passing over some pretty flat land for a very short period of time..

Maybe a drop of one category, which should quickly be regained in the southern Gulf.

[Nexus]

I'm curious to see how a storm like this reacts to passing over a strip of land like western Cuba at 15 mph.

probably won't make a difference at all.

Yeah it's moving at a pretty good clip, though I'm sure it'll be affected ever so slightly - maybe not even measureable.

[KWT]

Yep this will be back in the gulf within 3hrs probably, jsut not a big enough landstrip to really phase a powerful hurricane like Gustav. The best shot at being a category-5 for Gustav is as it goes over the loop current, may well do it there just like some big systems in 05.

[jlauderdal]

I'm curious to see how a storm like this reacts to passing over a strip of land like western Cuba at 15 mph.

dont expect much, minor bump in the road for this thing

[ronjon]

Gus is tracking N-NW and has been since 5 am this morning. Some of the models were hinting at this movement (actually CMC had taken it about 50 miles offshore of Tampa on yesterdays run before turning it NW). Probably the rapid intensification and forward speed caught some of the models a little "flat-footed" by not anticipating this movement. This isn't a wobble folks - just have to see how long it takes this course before turning more NW - may be a little heavier weather for SW FL if this track keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[weunice]

I hate to say this ... but I hope the lack of traffic in Baton Rouge -- and I mean its light -- is a sign of people being really prepared and having already left. I worry it isn't.

[Dean4Storms]

He is running a tad east of NHC track marks on the floater. The 2pm tracks had him marked at being at 83.5w 22.5 when he got over Cuba, he is going to be about 30-50 miles east of that earlier tropical forecast point.

[superfly]

That strip of land Gustav is crossing is around 50 miles so he should be on and off in less than 4 hours at the current speed.

[expat2carib]

Question,

How does the National Guard -that is stationed in NOLA, to secure the aria - prepare to survive?

[KWT]

Looks like Gustav is stair stepping, the system is taking a slight WNW wobble now as it heads inland.

As for the Cuba issue, lets just say the northern part of the eye is already nearly halfway across, this won't take very long to get back overwater and given the eye will always have part of itself close to the coast I don't see any weaking really, maybe 5kts.

[rockyman]

Gus is tracking N-NW and has been since 5 am this morning. Some of the models were hinting at this movement (actually CMC had taken it about 50 miles offshore of Tampa on yesterdays run before turning it NW). Probably the rapid intensification and forward speed caught some of the models a little "flat-footed" by not anticipating this movement. This isn't a wobble folks - just have to see how long it takes this course before turning more NW - may be a little heavier weather for SW FL if this track keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

5am position:
20.2N 81.3W

5pm position:
22.1N 82.9W

that's 1.9 North and 1.6 West...somewhat north of NW...but not NNW (NNW would have been 1.9 North and only about 1.0 West)

[Dean4Storms]

Landfalling now? Looks like it on the RAMSDIS Floater.