ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[SoupBone]

You're in Baton Rouge, right? Did you happen to catch Scott Oswald on Channel 9 this evening? That's what he said about the high. Watch again at 10.

Will do. Thanks...

[tolakram]

0000Z

[rockyman]

5pm position: 22.1N 82.9W
Current position: 22.7 N 83.4 W

Over past 3 hours--.6N and .5W or just north of NW

[Weather Watcher]

We as members and s2k posters need to stop with the doomsday post..It is truly riduculous..they know it's coming!! The only thing we can do is pray and report viable weather information..So please, for the sanity of this board...PLEASE STOP!! So instead of posting a doom and gloom post..Just take a moment to pray!

I aggree!!!

Pray!!!

[NFLnut]

If the track is exactly like the NHC has it, i.e. east side of Vermillion Bay heading NW you are right, but the slightest deviation to the right, which is entirely possible and Baton Rouge would get hit harder than Lafayette. The worst it could get for BR would be the 90-100 mph gusts that have already been mentioned. I know that is a lot, but it won't be totally devastating and most structures can withstand that kind of wind. Just get prepared for lots of downed trees, power lines, shingles ripped off, flooding etc. that you would normally expect with this kind of weather. I lived through hurricane Charley here in Orlando and we had 105 mph wind gusts. It was bad and it seemed like our roof could go at any point but we survived and Orlando was up and running within a week or two. Just lots of headaches related to no power and debris removal.

I got whacked HARD by Charley in north Orlando, but DO remember that Charley was a very fast moving storm. From beginning to end of the winds and rain, it lasted 45 minutes. Granted, after 44 years of living with Hurricanes, including Donna in Melbourne when I was little, it was the WORST 45 minutes that I remember, but comparing 45 minutes (as bad as they were) of Charley to potentially hours of 100+ mph winds are VERY different!

This storm could potentially be the WORST natural disaster ever. Let's all pray for everyone who may be affected by Gustav in the next few days and that somehow a miracle occurs and lives are spared!

[Ivanhater]

BTW

Position NHC: 22.7N 83.4W
18z GFDL forecast: 22.4N 83.5W

Models trying to keep up to the movement

[senorpepr]

Okay... enough of the bickering. Back to the storm--now!

[Stephanie]

Hurakan - I wish that they were at least on the western side of the storm. My prayers are with them!

[peteywheatstraw]

The cone of uncertainty is not infallible. 48 hrs before Katrina made landfall it wasn't even in SE La.

[6SpeedTA95]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

Thanks for the "good news". I'm sure the
good people of N.O. appreciate reading that.
I still don't understand the excitement some of
you get out this.

He's stating where the models are, how does that represent excitement? People on here have become so cynical over the years we cna't even talk about the damn weather without someone putting words/emotions into someone else's post.

[Downdraft]

Look every year we get a major storm and for some reason we've never figured out rationale people get upset when it isn't headed their way. We also get a bunch of kids that think they are smarter than the NHC and start demanding the NHC do what they think based upon their "gut" feelings. Don't get upset with them everyone knows who they are. Keep informed and if you live anywhere in the warning area you shouldn't be on here anywhere you don't have the time.

[RL3AO]

The cone of uncertainty is not infallible. 48 hrs before Katrina made landfall it wasn't even in SE La.

You sure about that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/16.AL1205W5.GIF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What time do you think it will get over the gulf?

I think within the next 3 hours. I also think it will be below cat4 if current weaking keeps up.

[peteywheatstraw]

Point taken.

[carversteve]

Can some post a map to show where the center is right now..TY! Or some sort of visual.

[senorpepr]

The cone of uncertainty is not infallible. 48 hrs before Katrina made landfall it wasn't even in SE La.

I'm throwing a BS flag here. If you check out advisory number ONE... (about six days out), New Orleans was in the cone.

[Shockwave]

What time do you think it will get over the gulf?

I think within the next 3 hours. I also think it will be below cat4 if current weaking keeps up.

I agree with the gulf waters time, but not with the weakening. I don't think that area of Cuba will cause it too loose that much intensity.

[jinftl]

SE La was absolutely in the cone for katrina 48 hours out...actually SE La was in the cone as early as the Wednesday before....a full 5 days out. The problem is that people focus on the black center line...not the cone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml

The cone of uncertainty is not infallible. 48 hrs before Katrina made landfall it wasn't even in SE La.

[wxman57]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

Thanks for the "good news". I'm sure the
good people of N.O. appreciate reading that.
I still don't understand the excitement some of
you get out this.

You do realize your talking about Katrina devastated people right? Talk about a HIGHLY erroneous statement to make...


I assure you no one is excited here...

18Z GFDL is not over New Orleans, it's over Lafayette/Vermilion Bay, right on NHC track. UKMET has been bad all along with Gustav. GFS has been all over the place, too. HWRF has been terrible, but it's not taking Gustav to New Orleans either. Even the generally terrible NOGAPS says Vermilion bay.

[tolakram]

Can some post a map to show where the center is right now..TY! Or some sort of visual.

Sure I just posted one, here it is again.