ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

Is the belief that strong Hurricanes make their own paths still around?? I remember years ago people would always quote this. Prolly before models were good.

Depends largely on other factors if there is nothing to interfere then yes. However inthis case there are a couple of high pressure systems that will have an affect on the storm.

[mvtrucking]

On the link above the stream of the NOLA channel 8 the meteorologist just showed a graphic where a couple of models have shifted east.(He said a trend?) Couldn't see which they were on that small screen. Anyone catch that?

[HURAKAN]

Over the gulf.

[vacanechaser]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif
NOW THATS CONSENSUS...

I DONT THINK SAYING THIS COULD BE WORSE THAN KAT FOR NOLA IS "HYPING". THE CONSENSUS IS NOW WELL EAST OF VERMILLION BAY. IN FACT...NHC TRACK IS ABOUT THE ONLY ONE STILL HUGGING VERMILLION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR THE 11 TRACK TO CALL FOR LANDFALL IN PLAQUEMINES OR LAFOURCHE AND TRACK RIGHT OVER WEST BATON ROUGE TOWARD ALEXANDRIA.

First of all, stop shouting. Second, the plot you posted has some of the worst hurricane models, including the BAMs and NOGAPS. See my post in the model thread about the BAMs. They should never be used in a changing steering flow. Here's a better plot. All tracks between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. There's no shift to New Orleans, but that doesn't mean this won't potentially be worse than Katrina there. New Orleans missed out on Katrina's strong winds. A track just west of New Orleans or to Baton Rouge would put New Orleans in the right front quadrant of a Cat 3-4 hurricane.



The orange track near Baton Rouge is NOGAPS - not a very good model for hurricanes.

well i will say this, when the hurricane center misses, they miss left.... meaning that the storms usually fade east or to the right of their forecast track... so, in my opinion, new orleans is in a bad way for now...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HurricaneRobert]

Why is that angle worse for NO? It's further away before it strikes the coast.

[rockyman]

Wxman...is there a reason your model plot doesn't show the 48 hour UKMet (which is further east)? Is the 18z less reliable?

[Sanibel]

I put a straight edge up against the eye over Isla Juventude and the present position and it comes out east of New Orleans.

[feederband]

Is the belief that strong Hurricanes make their own paths still around?? I remember years ago people would always quote this. Prolly before models were good.

Yeah I remember that...A CAT 3 storm could be going 40 mph west to texas and people would say its so powerful it could come back and hit Florida... Yeah ...Back in the days..

[senorpepr]

Wxman...is there a reason your model plot doesn't show the 48 hour UKMet (which is further east)? Is the 18z less reliable?

If I remember the UKMET correctly, the 18Z is nothing more than the 12Z model anyway. (Interpolated)

[vacanechaser]

Why is that angle worse for NO? It's further away before it strikes the coast.

one with it west, puts n.o on the worst side.. with that said, the winds being counter clockwise, and the angle to the coast would pile the water up in that direction of n.o where it will push the water right into the n.o. area.... where with katrina, it was east and the water pushed north to the east of the city..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Why is that angle worse for NO? It's further away before it strikes the coast.

1. Because of the shape of the coastline.

2. Because a hurricane's winds and surge are always highest in the front right quarter of the storm.

3. Because of the direction of the storm's circulation; i.e. counter clockwise (acts to funnel the water in that direction in this case).

Hope that helps answer your question.

[ConvergenceZone]

The Reds should start coming back soon now that the eye is almost entirely over water. I think by morning we will have a strengthening hurricane.

[Dean4Storms]

He really took more of a hit crossing Cuber than I thought he would moving as fast as he is moving.

[wxman57]

On the link above the stream of the NOLA channel 8 the meteorologist just showed a graphic where a couple of models have shifted east.(He said a trend?) Couldn't see which they were on that small screen. Anyone catch that?

Those are BAM models - Beta and Advection Models. They're useless out of the deep tropics because they're simple trajectory models that won't take into account the high pressure building west across Florida. Obviously, the Channel 8 meteorologist is a bit uninformed concerning hurricane models.

[soonertwister]

I put a straight edge up against the eye over Isla Juventude and the present position and it comes out east of New Orleans.

I'm going to pretend I didn't read this post.

[Hurricane Jason]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/g23_key.gif

[mathwhizz]

Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans has been ordered.

The mayor says he expects the Harvey Canal to fail and the entire West Bank to be a bath tub. He also says this will be worse than Katrina with a possible 24 foot surge in New Orleans.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... dered.html

[Wx_Warrior]

Gov of La should have urged an earlier move then.

[otowntiger]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif
NOW THATS CONSENSUS...

I DONT THINK SAYING THIS COULD BE WORSE THAN KAT FOR NOLA IS "HYPING". THE CONSENSUS IS NOW WELL EAST OF VERMILLION BAY. IN FACT...NHC TRACK IS ABOUT THE ONLY ONE STILL HUGGING VERMILLION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR THE 11 TRACK TO CALL FOR LANDFALL IN PLAQUEMINES OR LAFOURCHE AND TRACK RIGHT OVER WEST BATON ROUGE TOWARD ALEXANDRIA.

First of all, stop shouting. Second, the plot you posted has some of the worst hurricane models, including the BAMs and NOGAPS. See my post in the model thread about the BAMs. They should never be used in a changing steering flow. Here's a better plot. All tracks between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. There's no shift to New Orleans, but that doesn't mean this won't potentially be worse than Katrina there. New Orleans missed out on Katrina's strong winds. A track just west of New Orleans or to Baton Rouge would put New Orleans in the right front quadrant of a Cat 3-4 hurricane.

The orange track near Baton Rouge is NOGAPS - not a very good model for hurricanes.

I think you have to still agree that the NHC track is now on the western edge of the model concensus. They have it hugging the east side of Vermillion Bay and the consensus appears to be right of there.