ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[AlabamaDave]

What are the pro-mets thinking in regards to the 11 pm advisory? Will it be kept on track or shifted east/west?

20-30 mile east shift. Midway between LFT-BTR.

That would mean a really nasty smack for Louisiana's two largest metro areas.

[tolakram]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/g23_key.gif

Wow, thanks, that was a cool graphical animation.

[Portastorm]

Please dont throw eggs at me but anyone know what JB is saying?? Just curious.

What? Are you insane?! Just kidding ... mawolf3. JB is saying sub 920mb storm at some point prior to landfall and landfall at 91.5 or 92 west.

[RL3AO]

Please dont throw eggs at me but anyone know what JB is saying?? Just curious.

I'd trust J.B more than a lot of the pro-mets right now, as they were all forecasting against such a substantial increase, even NHC. He said it is likely for Gus to make a run at Cat. 5 and by golly it did.

NHC has been mentioning possible RI for days now.

"HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR."

That was Thursday night.

[AlabamaDave]

Please dont throw eggs at me but anyone know what JB is saying?? Just curious.

I'd trust J.B more than a lot of the pro-mets right now, as they were all forecasting against such a substantial increase, even NHC. He said it is likely for Gus to make a run at Cat. 5 and by golly it did.

Well, when you forecast every hurricane to achieve Category 5 status, eventually you will get one right.

[ConvergenceZone]

He really took more of a hit crossing Cuber than I thought he would moving as fast as he is moving.

I agree. It doesn't look NEAR as good as it did prior to landfall in Cuba. The convection mass around the eye has diminished quite a bit in size. The intensity of convection has really diminished and the eye is all but gone, except on radar.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

With that said, It will be an interesting update in about an hour, but don't be suprised if you see a high cat 2 hurricane. This looks about like it did when it was a cat 2 cane....They mentioned on the weather channel that it weakened over land I think it's pretty obvious, even to a monkey, that it's weakened, the question is, how much? ...I'm guessing, Low Cat 3, but it may only be a high cat 2

[Just Joshing You]

Please dont throw eggs at me but anyone know what JB is saying?? Just curious.

I'd trust J.B more than a lot of the pro-mets right now, as they were all forecasting against such a substantial increase, even NHC. He said it is likely for Gus to make a run at Cat. 5 and by golly it did.

NHC has been mentioning possible RI for days now.

"HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR."

That was Thursday night.

They said that the rapid intensification that had transpired was far greater than they anticipated, sorry.

[vacanechaser]

Jesse, it's actually a fact. Lance Wood of the Houston-Galveston NWS has done a 10 year study of forecasts in the Gulf to help estimate forecast confidence. He found that in the Gulf, 74% of the time the hurricane tracks right of the forecast.

I remember that with Katrina, Rita, and even Edouard. Even though 74% is substantial, there are the 26% that go left of the forecast and you never know.

I think that the NHC has gotten very much better on track forecasting in the last few years. They do struggle sometimes with intensity and timing, but most of their track forecasts are pretty reliable 48 hours out.

i agree 100%... still, the fact is, they always seem to miss to the left... fact is fact... and it does not matter if it is 20 miles or 100 miles.. it is still to the right of their projected landfall... even though they get better with it, they still have missed... 20 miles or 30 miles, which ever it could be, could make a big difference to the conditions of any given area... they will be better the closer it gets of course... but i am thinking it will fade east... we will see



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

Just Joshing You, that's nothing new. I have nothing against JB but he usually thinks that every storm will be a Cat 5 or very close and will affect the US.

Of course, after being wrong several times, he once get one right.

[CrazyC83]

This seems to be the most similar storm from my view (I disagree on the intensity though - it was probably much stronger in the Gulf - this was 1856 after all):

[tolakram]

well i will say this, when the hurricane center misses, they miss left.... meaning that the storms usually fade east or to the right of their forecast track... so, in my opinion, new orleans is in a bad way for now...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse, it's actually a fact. Lance Wood of the Houston-Galveston NWS has done a 10 year study of forecasts in the Gulf to help estimate forecast confidence. He found that in the Gulf, 74% of the time the hurricane tracks right of the forecast.

We've been seeing Gustav right of the track all day. We had the so called 'wobble' wars a while back and I pointed out that rather than wobble it was continually running east. Individually each error is small but won't they start to add up? Every time it misses to the right of the forecast point the angle of approach to LA becomes a little steeper.

Some actual meteorology would help me out here.

[Just Joshing You]

Just Joshing You, that's nothing new. I have nothing against JB but he usually thinks that every storm will be a Cat 5 or very close and will affect the US.

Of course, after being wrong several times, he once get one right.

I'm not the only one that "defended" him. Even Air Force Met did... AFM made quite the alarming post earlier.

[MGC]

Here is an excellent article concerning the surge of Hurricane Betsy in SE Louisiana. Since Gustav will be approaching the Louisiana coast from a near identical angle and intensity this could be what will transpire.....MGC

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-02-0118.pdf

[mawolf3]

Yes it does appear Gustav is dead on track. Really hasnt wavered at all.

[Portastorm]

Gustav continues on its (overall) northwest track. Here is a good loop and you can also see the ULL cutting off in the WGOM. The high over the Great Lakes looks stout but doesn't seem to be building south, either.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12+-update+3600

[AlabamaDave]

Here is an excellent article concerning the surge of Hurricane Betsy in SE Louisiana. Since Gustav will be approaching the Louisiana coast from a near identical angle and intensity this could be what will transpire.....MGC

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-02-0118.pdf

It's amazing how close in intensity and track Gustav is projected to mimic Betsy. Betsy flooded many of the same sections of N.O. as Katrina: 9th Ward, St. Bernard, etc.

[vacanechaser]

well i will say this, when the hurricane center misses, they miss left.... meaning that the storms usually fade east or to the right of their forecast track... so, in my opinion, new orleans is in a bad way for now...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse, it's actually a fact. Lance Wood of the Houston-Galveston NWS has done a 10 year study of forecasts in the Gulf to help estimate forecast confidence. He found that in the Gulf, 74% of the time the hurricane tracks right of the forecast.

We've been seeing Gustav right of the track all day. We had the so called 'wobble' wars a while back and I pointed out that rather than wobble it was continually running east. Individually each error is small but won't they start to add up? Every time it misses to the right of the forecast point the angle of approach to LA becomes a little steeper.

Some actual meteorology would help me out here.

its not so much the wobble wars or wobbles adding up... it will wobble back the other way and make up for it possibly... its just the fact that before landfall, they seem to make a right turn of sorts, going to the right of the forecast track.. to me, this will be no different... this will put the rfq right over n.o. .. that is if it does not shift furth before landfall..

we are not talking about a shift east early either.. we are talking about almost lst minute.. hour or 2 or so before landfall is what i am getting at... so we will see



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HurricaneRobert]

Hanna's model runs remind me a lot of Betsy's track:

[6SpeedTA95]

Guys here's a map of the oil infrastructure and katrina's footprint, ignore katrina and just look at the infrastructure, if this thing turns westerly as it approaches the shorline or skirts the coast a hundred miles or more it would be devastating to the nation and send prices through the roof.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/im ... _large.gif

[mawolf3]

Well Hurricanes DO seem to respond to encountering land. Hardly ever just barrel on through without hesitation or left-right movement.