ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

well, off to bed....perhaps you are right and it may not full recover afterall....Strange system. It looked great prior to eclipse, increased convection, cleared out eye, more symetrical, and now all of the sudden, it looks like crap again....

Perhaps it's done it's damage and the shear is going to rip it apart afterall....... time will tell....

[AL Chili Pepper]

well, off to bed....perhaps you are right and it may not full recover afterall....Strange system. It looked great prior to eclipse, increased convection, cleared out eye, more symetrical, and now all of the sudden, it looks like crap again....

Perhaps it's done it's damage and the shear is going to rip it apart afterall....... time will tell....

I'm out too, but one last note. Pressure is lower...952 and that's outside the eye.
064600 2343N 08426W 6971 02767 9523 +194 +100 214031 035 040 003 00

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I was driving home from hattiesburg, ms tonight and was listening to wwl radio. They were saying that the eye was supposed to go directly over lake ponchartrain and there would be 17-20' storm surge and this would be like a storm that no one has ever seen before. Talk about instilling panic! I thought phew, lafayette may be lucky and my area may be lucky enough to be out of the picture. I got home and looked at all the info that we all use and couldn't believe they were telling people this.

Wow, talk about irresponsible reporting from the "Chicken Little Crew"!!!
They might as well have some guy on the street wearing a sandwich board that claims "The end is near, repent now!"

[bahamaswx]

Down 2mb. He's trying...

[physicx07]

I was driving home from hattiesburg, ms tonight and was listening to wwl radio. They were saying that the eye was supposed to go directly over lake ponchartrain and there would be 17-20' storm surge and this would be like a storm that no one has ever seen before. Talk about instilling panic! I thought phew, lafayette may be lucky and my area may be lucky enough to be out of the picture. I got home and looked at all the info that we all use and couldn't believe they were telling people this.

Wow, talk about irresponsible reporting from the "Chicken Little Crew"!!!
They might as well have some guy on the street wearing a sandwich board that claims "The end is near, repent now!"

Where do they get this stuff??? Can several hundred of us on here be wrong???

edit: You know it's time to go to bed when you start waxing existentialist...

[Skeetergirl]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I was driving home from hattiesburg, ms tonight and was listening to wwl radio. They were saying that the eye was supposed to go directly over lake ponchartrain and there would be 17-20' storm surge and this would be like a storm that no one has ever seen before. Talk about instilling panic! I thought phew, lafayette may be lucky and my area may be lucky enough to be out of the picture. I got home and looked at all the info that we all use and couldn't believe they were telling people this.

Wow, talk about irresponsible reporting from the "Chicken Little Crew"!!!
They might as well have some guy on the street wearing a sandwich board that claims "The end is near, repent now!"

Where do they get this stuff??? Can several hundred of us on here be wrong???

edit: You know it's time to go to bed when you start waxing existentialist...

Yeah, I'm not saying that it absolutely couldn't happen, because you know that anything seems to be possible with these storms. However, as of right now, there is no data to substantiate their claim as being factual information. If they are the media outlet that people turn to for their info, then they should surely be responsible enough to give facts and only facts! It seems they were using a scare tactic that no one in that region needs, especially in such a critical time as this.

[KWT]

Well odds on a cat-5 seems to be gone, the system really left Cuba a lot messier then I thought it would but there you go!

[Cyclenall]

There is some disturbing news to report from another forum I'm a member of, everyone still thinks this is currently a category 5 hurricane from that false report that came from FEMA early on. They even think TS Hanna is going to take the same track as Hurricane Katrina!!

[ftolmsteen]

What are the odds that the Fort Myers buoy (42003) gets struck dead on? It's already 9.5 feet wave height and climbing by the hour.

[KWT]

Looks like the system has become somewhat lopsided at thew moment with the deep convection on the SW side...I hope we are seeing Gustav pull a Lili even earlier...

[shah8]

Does look like most of the energy is being put into size and reorganization. However, it has 11 hours or so to put its house in order. I suspect that's more than enough to make any runs at cat 5. We are truly dependent on *heavy* shear to prevent that, I think.

[xironman]

Cuba definitely knocked him down. But he still has the loop current in front of him. If he is going to make the run at cat 5 that would be the time.

[KWT]

Well yeah there is enough time for that to happen but judging from the structure its got a difficult job reorganising I think, it doesn't even look like a cat-4 and I think the data problably is more suggestive of this being a top end 3 rather then a 4 but there you go.

If anything its not getting stronger right now but weakening given the way the NE eyewall is totally open, its having big structual problems.

Still being such a large system and still a very powerful hurricane, the surge for N.O looks very severe given the track.

[ftolmsteen]

Some of you are going to be surprised when this thing emerges a perfect eye in the next hour or two. It's expanded in size in this last two frames.

[Shawee]

Well yeah there is enough time for that to happen but judging from the structure its got a difficult job reorganising I think, it doesn't even look like a cat-4 and I think the data problably is more suggestive of this being a top end 3 rather then a 4 but there you go.

If anything its not getting stronger right now but weakening given the way the NE eyewall is totally open, its having big structual problems.

I'll take anything to whack this down in intenity. I certainly like the looks of it at present versus pre-cuba... but we all know things change rapidly; good and bad.
Checking out to central MS... putting the kids and puppies in now to hopefully beat a little traffic. Thanks all for your incredible insight and wisdom.

Good luck to everyone!

[xironman]

You would think that the NE would be the easiest place for him to build back up. The SW convection is very nice. Can you explain why the NE is so bad, I can't figure it out.

[KWT]

ftolmsteen, it may be possible but its got some major structual changes to do that, saying that its got the loop current yet so we may see some explosive deepening ocur...

As I said even if it doesn't strengthen if this gets close to N.O we are looking at quite a terrible situation possibly setting up, I really don't think the doomsday situation as some have been talking about is looking at all unlikely now sadly...

[Shawee]

ftolmsteen, it may be possible but its got some major structual changes to do that, saying that its got the loop current yet so we may see some explosive deepening ocur...

As I said even if it doesn't strengthen if this gets close to N.O we are looking at quite a terrible situation possibly setting up, I really don't think the doomsday situation as some have been talking about is looking at all unlikely now sadly...

we live in hope, not fear. Lot's of respect for weather so we are addios (evac. not toast)!

[shah8]

I think it would be good if someone would post an animated .gif of Gustav from 100m SE of Grand Cayman until Isle of Youth. It might give insight to tendencies about building inner cores.