ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[USTropics]

Jeff Master's new blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[Jason_B]

1200Z

If you draw out that line it's a direct hit on NO.

[funster]

Sorry but I just hear mayor Nagin of New Orleans.
"People have to be scared. This is the storm of the century..."
Is he on crack or what?
Maybe he should read the information on this site and get in touch with Miami before making statements to boost his future (?) political career....
Now back to tracking Gustavo.

Didn't you already post this? He's obviously just trying to get people out of harm's way.

[Solaris]

GUSTAV tries to improve clearly now, key hours ahead here which probably decide if that makes a cat 1-2 landfall or 3-4. The latter would be quite a test for the NOLA especially in that angle in that GUSTAV is approaching the coast. The first possbility would be definitely a relief for the NOLA.

[tolakram]

A huge amount of shear ahead if it stays there.

bzzzzzzz, incorrect, please ignore.

[deltadog03]

That shear is from him...Thats not what he is going to move into.

[Derek Ortt]

that shear is the outflow

the southerly shear may be lessening a little

[jlauderdal]

A huge amount of shear ahead if it stays there.

please dont misread that nice map from my alma mater, there is no huge amount of shear, keep up the good work on your hanna tracking map

[cycloneye]

The lowest pressure from the NOAA plane in the recent pass is 955.5 mbs.

[Alacane2]

Governor Riley has issued a mandatory evacuation order for Mobile County south of Interstate 10 and for portions of southern Baldwin County.

[BigB0882]

The lowest pressure from the NOAA plane in the recent pass is 955.5 mbs.

So going down slightly? Just woke up so not sure how that compares to the last runs.

[cardiacnp]

i hate to sound like a wobble watcher.....but do you see a more nnw move. not much but a few miles makes a big difference due to where i live. maybe wishful thinking??????????

[Sanibel]

I put my straight edge up to Gus's position over Isla Juventude and the present position and the extrapolated track is over New Orleans. This would be meaningful if Gus was under the normal Gulf recurve synoptic, but since a slight left trend is expected under the US High pressure dome I can only guess. Best to stay with NHC track at this point as good enough.

[tolakram]

Thanks for the numerous corrections on my misreading of the shear.

[cycloneye]

The lowest pressure from the NOAA plane in the recent pass is 955.5 mbs.

So going down slightly? Just woke up so not sure how that compares to the last runs.

Down 5 mbs from the last pass.

[HarlequinBoy]

A few people are sort of downplaying a Category 3 storm.

Ivan and Wilma were Cat 3, and even Katrina, although it did have a Cat 5 storm surge.

[6SpeedTA95]

The lowest pressure from the NOAA plane in the recent pass is 955.5 mbs.

So going down slightly? Just woke up so not sure how that compares to the last runs.

Down 5 mbs

[6SpeedTA95]

A few people are sort of downplaying a Category 3 storm.

Ivan and Wilma were Cat 3, and even Katrina, although it did have a Cat 5 storm surge.

Well if I at anypoint came off as trying to downplay it I apologize. Simply meant to state compared with what the models were showing yesterday this was welcome news.

Although now the cp has dropped a bit

[superfly]

Pressure seems pretty steady, but the winds are even lower than before. Recon data on first pass doesn't even support cat 2 winds.

[BigB0882]

Pressure seems pretty steady, but the winds are even lower than before. Recon data on first pass doesn't even support cat 2 winds.

That is interesting. Is it normal for a storms winds to go down slightly as it begins restrengthening? Although this doesn't sound slight to go down to a category 1. Just weird since the mb dropped 5 points.