ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Trader Ron]

Hey BA, you haven't bought for 2 day's. Come on...it's your turn.

[Stormtrack03]

I will be watching this storm with great interest this week.... hoping the shear can tear this apart like NHC suggests.

[Stormtrack03]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 31/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0108A HANNA
C. 31/1230Z
D. 23.0N 70.0W
E. 31/1500Z TO 31/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[storms in NC]

Hanna don't look so good this AM. I am going back and forth with Gus and Hanna. I see new one is up on baord. But don't have the time with it right now.

[tolakram]

1200Z

[greels]

Overcast and very cloudy at the moment here on Provo, T&C.

Winds beginning to pick up.

Flooding from heavy rain will be the problem here.....much of this Island below flood plain and our communities along the shore are at risk.

[ericinmia]

Accuweather moved their track again... Looks like they are going with JB's morning ideas that this will be a north florida/carolina's threat...

[storms in NC]

WoW All 3 NWS here in NC are all different in their discussions on long trem.
Sorry for so long but it has alot of differents between each other.Raleigh is like all over it and the other 2 is well maybe have some rain or not.Just thought how unusual this was

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
BIG QUESTION MARK IS CENTERED AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO BE PRESENT THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW AND BRITISH COLUMBIA SLOWLY ERODING
AWAY THE EAST COAST RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK...
ALLOWING ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...SUBSEQUENTLY PUSHING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALLOWING A
BERMUDA RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE WEEK. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...WHICH...UNFORTUNATELY...HELPS TO STEER
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA DIRECTLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRI/SAT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SCARY AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF FOR
THAT TIME RANGE...VERY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN COULD MEAN BIG CHANGES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE HANNA...AND IT WOULD BE QUITE PREMATURE TO BASE THE
FORECAST ON THE PATTERN SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS...
EVEN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME...WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED POPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (~30-40%)
ON FRI/SAT/SUN...WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE TRACK OF TC HANNA VERY CLOSELY
THIS WEEK...AS THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON CENTRAL NC BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST INFORMATION AND GUIDANCE W/REGARDS TO
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...AT http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV -VINCENT









NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
741 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER OVER THE WORK WEEK WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THAN NORMAL. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
BUILDING RIDGE WILL REBOUND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLY BY
THU. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WE MAY
GET DUE TO THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE BIGGEST ?
IS THE FUTURE OF TS HANNA. LATEST NHC TRACK DOES SHOW A RIGHTWARD
CURVE TOWARDS THE N BY LATE WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM
DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE REGION...WE COULD SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE FOR RETURN OF SCT CONVECTION BY THE WEEKEND


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THERE IS REALLY NO POINT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF HANNA. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
THE STORM JUST OFF THE COAST MAKING LANDFALL NOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT.
THE ENSEMBLES HAVE TWO CLUSTERS...ONE REMAINING OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND ANOTHER MOVING OFF TO THE NE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
ANYWAY...THINGS REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN HANNA
NOTWITHSTANDING.

[CourierPR]

I'm not sold on the forecast turn taking place off shore. Hanna appears to be diving SW now. I'll wait to see just how far south and west she gets.

[jlauderdal]

I'm not sold on the forecast turn taking place off shore. Hanna appears to be diving SW now. I'll wait to see just how far south and west she gets.

nhc mentioned sw motion as a possibility, lets see if it is a wobble, i cant believe im wobble watching but, pathetic

[captain east]

I don't think she'll turn north. I have nothing to back it up or anything, it's just my gut feeling...

[Evil Jeremy]

The models are all over the place this morning, and some of them are saying that the turn will happen today or tomorrow, including the HWRF. I am not really buying a NW turn, at least this early.

[RevDodd]

WoW All 3 NWS here in NC are all different in their discussions on long trem.
Sorry for so long but it has alot of differents between each other.Raleigh is like all over it and the other 2 is well maybe have some rain or not.Just thought how unusual this was.

True...you'd figure WIlmington and Morehead would be a little more forthcoming, considering how much more they have at stake.

BTW, did Fay's leftovers give y'all a good soaking?

[storms in NC]

I just looked at the loop and she is still moving a jog to the N then back WNW
But what I see most is the ULL is winning the battle. It has ate Hanna up. I don't know if she will pull back together or not. Time will tell. She is almost north of the Ull if she can get away from it she may have a Chance. But that ULL will have to slid to the south some more.

[storms in NC]

WoW All 3 NWS here in NC are all different in their discussions on long trem.
Sorry for so long but it has alot of differents between each other.Raleigh is like all over it and the other 2 is well maybe have some rain or not.Just thought how unusual this was.

True...you'd figure WIlmington and Morehead would be a little more forthcoming, considering how much more they have at stake.

BTW, did Fay's leftovers give y'all a good soaking?

Nope we got 3/10th of a inch here. that is so sad. we need the rain so bad. The nothern parts of NC got like 6-10 inch. luckly ducks
How about you all?

[meteorologyman]

If Hanna plays her cards right, and weather conditons seem favorable anyone in the SE could be in trouble, esp. FL since Hanna is closest at this point.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I'm not saying this is going to happen but it is best to prepare for it. This is worst case scenario for FL. TS Hanna remains TS until it nears Bahamas, 36 hours before landfall and everyone goes to sleep it rapidly intensifies to at least Cat3. we all wake up to find a CAT 3 with only 24 hours or less to evacuate and storm could still strengthen more. Again i'm not saying it's going to happen it's probably ver slim, but it's best to prepare for it.

[HURAKAN]

Hanna looks like it was run over by about 5 fully loaded 18-wheelers. Looks as bad as Jeanne looked in 2004 in the same general area.



Will it survive? The NHC has a local pastor in standby just in case!

[cpdaman]

she looks truly pathetic , but her winds have been upped to 60 mph by people smarter than me

seriously any PRO MET, how is this 60 mph!

AJC3 said as far as steering to watch the evolution of the high and the key will be the positioning of the *cut off low* so watch WV loop to see where that develops and that will determine where it is able to move and the amount of shear come tue-wed.

with that being said look at gustav's outlfow on the wv loop cleaving off what little convection there was to the north,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html


upper level divergence is not that impressive now over system as well

i can't even make out where hanna begins or where the ull is , hanna looks like a subtropical storm

[gtsmith]

Looks as bad as Jeanne looked in 2004 in the same general area.

that comment doesn't fill me with warm and fuzzies i sure remember what happened to that storm, the one that was not suppose to hit us...

[wjs3]

One thing I noticed when running a visible loop of Hanna is that Gustav's outflow seems to be hitting Hanna now.

If you run a visible loop at SSD:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

(Time sensitive!)

You can see The cirrus clouds indicating Gustav's outflow to the west/NW of the image. Then watch the cirrus clouds over Hanna get pushed to the south almost as a wall as that outflow hits.

(Edit--CPDAMAN beat me to the post. Check it out on visible, too, though!)