ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

It looks to finally actually be organizing somewhat on Infrared...the main convective pattern has completely filled in...


It should be about in the absolutely warmest waters it will encounter as well...don't count out intensification yet...

[bigjohn]

Txhawk

I think the call by those Texas officials were actually the tough ones to make. They had a much lower level of assurance they were at risk. But that did not impact the enormity of the task. Hopefully they would not have been facing a Rita type situation since the Houston metro area was not really at risk. But that was their call. I might have held off, but I don't get paid to make that call. So I am surely not criticizing them.

[Wthrman13]

I do not understand why some people were ignoring satellite imagery and recon observations last night. Satellite imagery and especially Air Force Recon does not support this system being stronger than a Category 2 at this time.

The interaction with land had very little to do with the weakening we're seeing. It's the increased mid-upper level shear that started affecting the system as it made landfall in Cuba. When there's shear, any dry air that may or may NOT show up on water vapor imagery (as it could be in a different level), gets mixed into the system making the structure look as ragged as it looks right now.

Any professional meteorologist can tell you that the structure the system has right now is classic for a system that is choking and trying to mix out the dry air (with convective bursts in one quadrant). I do believe the shear that's been mostly affecting the system today is more of a lower to mid-level shear, rather than the upper level shear that was affecting the system yesterday. Thus, the system was able to strengthen despite it.

I do believe in reanalysis this will be downgraded to a Category 2 during this time period and who knows what the final intensity at landfall will be. The system is currently over the loop current, but that DOESN'T at all matter if the system has wind and thermodynamic problems. You can tell the system is trying, but the waters are are not as deep the further north you go.

IMO, I do believe the NHC would have to downgrade this to a Category 2 at some point today, regardless of what the media/government and or public reaction will be.

THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

I agree that Gustav is struggling with its thermodynamic environment right now, and the probable cause is undercutting southerly mid-level flow entraining dry air into the circulation. Otherwise, the outflow pattern actually looks quite a bit better than last night, especially over the southern semicircle. It is indeed trying to mix out the dry air, as periodically deep convection tries to wrap all the way around the eye (as it's trying to do right now). It's also dealing with a possible outer eyewall, and folks have already mentioned that it will be moving into an area of less oceanic heat content.

All that is to say that, at least to me, re-intensification to a Cat 4 is looking less likely to me, and certainly not to a 5. But, I would be a fool to ignore the possibility of an episode of strengthening before landfall, especially if the eye can manage to clear out. The next recon should be interesting.

[HarlequinBoy]

My family just spoke to my relatives in Cuba and everyone is OK. They say that there are a lot of electricity poles in the ground but there is not a lot of tree damage. I think Charley handled that in 2004. The Cuban government is saying that they expect electricity to be back between 25 to 30 days.

Oh wow. I'm glad to hear they are okay, but gosh that's a long time.

[superfly]

Obviously you don't know how many millions of people live on/near the Upper Texas coast. Nobody wants a repeat of Rita, but the reality is that it is technically and practically impossible to evacuate everybody within a timeline that people can be 'sure' that a storm will be a threat. So if you're an (elected) official, you make the call on the side of caution. That's not 'ridiculous', that's reality.

Well of course that's what the elected official will do just so he won't take the blame. That's also what happened for Andrew, Georges, Opal, Ivan in NOLA. People don't like evacuating, they'll do it once, twice, 3 times, but will they do it a 4th or a 5th or a 6th if nothing disastrous happened any of the previous times they evacuated? THAT'S reality. Government officials will of course cover their own backs in case the worst case scenario happens, but that doesn't mean it's the best for the general public.

[Tom8]

[ConvergenceZone]

I do not understand why some people were ignoring satellite imagery and recon observations last night. Satellite imagery and especially Air Force Recon does not support this system being stronger than a Category 2 at this time.

The interaction with land had very little to do with the weakening we're seeing. It's the increased mid-upper level shear that started affecting the system as it made landfall in Cuba. When there's shear, any dry air that may or may NOT show up on water vapor imagery (as it could be in a different level), gets mixed into the system making the structure look as ragged as it looks right now.

Any professional meteorologist can tell you that the structure the system has right now is classic for a system that is choking and trying to mix out the dry air (with convective bursts in one quadrant). I do believe the shear that's been mostly affecting the system today is more of a lower to mid-level shear, rather than the upper level shear that was affecting the system yesterday. Thus, the system was able to strengthen despite it.

I do believe in reanalysis this will be downgraded to a Category 2 during this time period and who knows what the final intensity at landfall will be. The system is currently over the loop current, but that DOESN'T at all matter if the system has wind and thermodynamic problems. You can tell the system is trying, but the waters are are not as deep the further north you go.

IMO, I do believe the NHC would have to downgrade this to a Category 2 at some point today, regardless of what the media/government and or public reaction will be.

THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

Hyperstorm, I disagreed with you last night, but I absolutely agree with you today. You nailed this one.... I too believe it will be downgraded to a Cat2, and probably landfalling as a high Cat1 or a low Cat2, depending upon how much weakening occurs from the shear and cooler water temperatures.... I say this because it's leaving behind the best conditions and best opportunity for development, and if it couldn't get going then, I don't see it happening when conditions aren't going to be as favorable...

[Portastorm]

Txhawk

I think the call by those Texas officials were actually the tough ones to make. They had a much lower level of assurance they were at risk. But that did not impact the enormity of the task. Hopefully they would not have been facing a Rita type situation since the Houston metro area was not really at risk. But that was their call. I might have held off, but I don't get paid to make that call. So I am surely not criticizing them.

John, yesterday morning there were still 2 camps of modeling and the NHC said in their discussions that they were going to take the right-leaning models. But they acknowledged the other modeling showing a westward bend prior to landfall which would have put Jefferson and Orange counties in harms way. Given the time frames needed to safely evacuate elderly, the sick, and other special needs persons ... officials in SE Texas could not afford to take the chance. They made the right call. But that is what they were dealing with at the time they had to make a very tough decision.

[Hyperstorm]

Looking at the latest satellite images reveal something interesting. The upper-level cloud deck is beginning to change orientation from SE-NW, to more W-E. This tells you that there is a building ridge to the north and northeast of the system (as of course predicted), and the current NNW-NW heading should change to more WNW.

It seems like it's not a matter of if it will veer more WNW now, but probably when. My expectation is later today the motion will be more westerly when compared to the last couple of days.

Time will tell, but my personal observation is that the system will not keep this straight line to New Orleans and pass to the SW like the models have been predicting.

[ConvergenceZone]

I do not understand why some people were ignoring satellite imagery and recon observations last night. Satellite imagery and especially Air Force Recon does not support this system being stronger than a Category 2 at this time.

The interaction with land had very little to do with the weakening we're seeing. It's the increased mid-upper level shear that started affecting the system as it made landfall in Cuba. When there's shear, any dry air that may or may NOT show up on water vapor imagery (as it could be in a different level), gets mixed into the system making the structure look as ragged as it looks right now.

Any professional meteorologist can tell you that the structure the system has right now is classic for a system that is choking and trying to mix out the dry air (with convective bursts in one quadrant). I do believe the shear that's been mostly affecting the system today is more of a lower to mid-level shear, rather than the upper level shear that was affecting the system yesterday. Thus, the system was able to strengthen despite it.

I do believe in reanalysis this will be downgraded to a Category 2 during this time period and who knows what the final intensity at landfall will be. The system is currently over the loop current, but that DOESN'T at all matter if the system has wind and thermodynamic problems. You can tell the system is trying, but the waters are are not as deep the further north you go.

IMO, I do believe the NHC would have to downgrade this to a Category 2 at some point today, regardless of what the media/government and or public reaction will be.

THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

I agree that Gustav is struggling with its thermodynamic environment right now, and the probable cause is undercutting southerly mid-level flow entraining dry air into the circulation. Otherwise, the outflow pattern actually looks quite a bit better than last night, especially over the southern semicircle. It is indeed trying to mix out the dry air, as periodically deep convection tries to wrap all the way around the eye (as it's trying to do right now). It's also dealing with a possible outer eyewall, and folks have already mentioned that it will be moving into an area of less oceanic heat content.

All that is to say that, at least to me, re-intensification to a Cat 4 is looking less likely to me, and certainly not to a 5. But, I would be a fool to ignore the possibility of an episode of strengthening before landfall, especially if the eye can manage to clear out. The next recon should be interesting.

That's true, in the tropics, you never say never.....Sometimes mother nature throws a curve ball at us...

[KWT]

Well Gustav is probably holding steady now, the track also still looks to the east of where the NHC want it to go, this still looks like coming very close to N.O and even if it does weaken to a 2 a dead on hit is still going to cause big issues, surge will be that of a 3/4 and in that NE eyewall your going to see some pretty horrific winds at the top of those big buildings.

[jasons2k]

I think people are jumping on the weakening bandwagon WAY TOO prematurely and this could be very dangerous.

If you look at the satellite presentation, Gutsav has clearly been undergoing a period of reorganization after dealing with the shear, and the winds have relaxed.

It's very very clear that the outflow pattern is imporving and the shear will be less of a hinderance now. The eyewall is reorganizing. Once the eyewall can fully close-off and become more circular, expect the pressure to drop and winds to pick-up again.

By later tonight, I suspect Gustav will look much better again. Not as strong as yesterday as we once feared, but it's definitely putting the pieces together to make another run at intensifying. Nobody should be celebrating or letting their guard down yet, I could not emphazise this enough right now. Be a little patient.

[soonertwister]

It looks to finally actually be organizing somewhat on Infrared...the main convective pattern has completely filled in...


It should be about in the absolutely warmest waters it will encounter as well...don't count out intensification yet...

I don't either. From looking at all sorts of imagery, Gustav looks like he's about to begin getting stronger, and considerably stronger isn't out of the question. The one thing I don't want to see is a strengthening major hurricane and landfall, but given the short time until that appears it will occur, it may be an unavoidable side effect of the recent stuggles that Gustav has had with internal disruption.

[Texashawk]

Txhawk

I think the call by those Texas officials were actually the tough ones to make. They had a much lower level of assurance they were at risk. But that did not impact the enormity of the task. Hopefully they would not have been facing a Rita type situation since the Houston metro area was not really at risk. But that was their call. I might have held off, but I don't get paid to make that call. So I am surely not criticizing them.

Exactly. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes right now - the reality is that if this thing makes just a few degrees turn to the left past the track, it's already far too late to evacuate much of the UTX coast, including Houston. But nobody would remember the facts of the decision years from now, just the result of inaction.

[jwayne]

Agree on the left turn. For SE TX sake, hope models haven't underdone the sharpness and timing of the turn (many of them underestimated the turn in Fay).

[Downdraft]

You can argue and second guess this thing until the cows come home but to do it now is irresponsible. 90% of the people that post here don't have a clue about emergency management and how it operates. Now is NOT the time to argue with the NHC or state and local officials and what they are doing. It was never allowed before in this forum I'm surprised it's being allowed now.

[Normandy]

I would have it rather bomb now (be a cat 5 right now) and then weaken upon landfall. Ask yourself whats worse....a weakening Category 3 or a deepening Category 3?

[JonathanBelles]

Florida has opened shelters in the three eastern most counties of the Panhandle for Gustav evacuees.

[cape_escape]

I just want to say that everyone in Gustav's path is in my prayers! After going through Charley, I know how hard it can be after a storm, and wish you all the best! Stay safe!

[KWT]

I certainly think its a little foolish to underestimate Gustav, a cat-3 heading quickly towards the shelf waters may not have the same response as a cat-5 like Katrina, however I think if we are to see any strengthening its going to be modest at best.

Normandy, think that through though, cat-5 in the gulf with a system this size means cat-5 type surge in N.O if it lines up correctly...