ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Boy does that look like an eye forming? I don't think it is but it looks like it.

[vacanechaser]

Boy does that look like an eye forming? I don't think it is but it looks like it.

wow.. have not looked at a sat image in awhile... does look interesting thats for sure...

i agree, it is not one, but certainly looking like it is trying to wrap in



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Blown Away]

Hanna still moving a pretty good clip in order to stay on track she will have to slam on the brakes very soon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hanna still moving a pretty good clip in order to stay on track she will have to slam on the brakes very soon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

LOL her and that ULL are still raging war on each other...Amazing how resiliant she is...

[sunnyday]

This storm's path has been all over the place. It has been sw, w, and now heading n or nw. Such a variation is frightening. Now that it is supposed to miss S. Fl, is there a likelihood that I will see S Fl as the destination tomorrow?

[Vortex]

12Z ukmet heads sw to the north coast of cuba then west along the north cuban coast then nw/nnw towards and over SFL. NHC noted the Ukmet in their discussion and ukmet has been very consistent with this scenario.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

518
URNT12 KNHC 311751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/17:36:20Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
070 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 44 kt
E. 046 deg 105 nm
F. 122 deg 045 kt
G. 043 deg 049 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 19 C/ 1520 m
J. 19 C/ 1520 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 43 / 49NM

[Evil Jeremy]

I think that the models will continue to move westward as the storm continues to move at 10+ MPH. The new GFDL has also shifted westward, showing landfall on the South/North Carolina border.

[KWT]

It looks very messy right now, theres no real organisation of the convective coverage its just constantly blowing up convection which may be keeping the LLC from really wekaneing too much.

Good job the shear is real intense because look at the way its constantly bursting.

[artist]

I will be so glad when we are finally within the 3 day cone or less. Then we should have a much better idea as to where she will land.

[cpdaman]

Boy does that look like an eye forming? I don't think it is but it looks like it.

wow.. have not looked at a sat image in awhile... does look interesting thats for sure...

i agree, it is not one, but certainly looking like it is trying to wrap in



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

no i don't think that's possible

that feature is at 72.5 or 73 (now) W, while the recon fix is much further ENE at 71 W

surely no eye , not even a LLC, i was wondering if that could be a MLC, since i usually don't see brite red surroundig a ULL.

[captain east]

Winds down to 45 mph, but it went down to 997 mb and is currently moving west pretty fast at 12 mph..

[Evil Jeremy]

New UKMET is in. SFL landfall from the east, without making landfall in Cuba.

[cpdaman]

vane chaser do you think that feature could be the MLC while the LLC is futher NE by the recon fix, also seems like LLC want's to follow that feature pretty closely.

we need to watch any storm in this position very very closely , especially one that can sneak up on us (moving 12mph) while everyone else watches gustav

[captain east]

New UKMET is in. SFL landfall from the east, without making landfall in Cuba.

Can you post the model please, I'd like to see it.

[Evil Jeremy]

New UKMET is in. SFL landfall from the east, without making landfall in Cuba.

Can you post the model please, I'd like to see it.

It is the blue line with the squares. Even though it is the outlier, it is still a reliable model:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_08.gif

[storms in NC]

I think that is the ULL. But cause recon has it at . 23 deg 32 min N
070 deg 56 min W

[captain east]

New UKMET is in. SFL landfall from the east, without making landfall in Cuba.

Can you post the model please, I'd like to see it.

It is the blue line with the squares. Even though it is the outlier, it is still a reliable model:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_08.gif

Thanks. Anyways I think the models will start gradually drifting or drastically more to the west if it keeps moving this fast to the west.

[jinftl]

OK, Hanna is at the 12-hour forecast position that was set at 11am....so in 3 hours she got to where she was forecast to be at 11pm tonight. What's up?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT


2pm position: 23.5N 71.1W

[Weatherboy1]

appears that some of the easternmost models have shifted back somewhat to the west as of the midday runs, while the westernmost (UKMET) has shifted somewhat to the east. It also appears to me that Hanna may be moving more quickly to the W or slightly N of W. The net result could be a bit of a western shift of the NHC path forecast at 5 p.m., in my opinion. Anybody from the southern tip of FL up through the Outer Banks should keep a close eye on Hanna, as far as I'm concerned.