ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Yep its certainly racing to the west right now, the ULL is probably having some role in the faster motion, because whilst the circulation is not at that level ,the cloud tops probably are close.

[Evil Jeremy]

OK, Hanna is at the 12-hour forecast position that was set at 11am....so in 3 hours she got to where she was forecast to be at 11pm tonight. What's up?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT


2pm position: 23.5N 71.1W

This is represented in the updated cone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

She is going to be at her Monday morning point in no time, and cone changes will need to be made.

[Trader Ron]

I don't buy the UKMET track. It seems to be an extreme outlier.

[Sirius LeWindy]

OK, Hanna is at the 12-hour forecast position that was set at 11am....so in 3 hours she got to where she was forecast to be at 11pm tonight. What's up?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT


2pm position: 23.5N 71.1W

VDM at 1350EST was 23.32N 70.56W. Hanna is not at 71.1W. But NHC 200PM is what you have it at. Go figure.

[Evil Jeremy]

OK, Hanna is at the 12-hour forecast position that was set at 11am....so in 3 hours she got to where she was forecast to be at 11pm tonight. What's up?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT


2pm position: 23.5N 71.1W

VDM at 1350EST was 23.32N 70.56W. Hanna is not at 71.1W

The official position at the 2 PM update was 71.1

[storms in NC]

OK, Hanna is at the 12-hour forecast position that was set at 11am....so in 3 hours she got to where she was forecast to be at 11pm tonight. What's up?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT


2pm position: 23.5N 71.1W

VDM at 1350EST was 23.32N 70.56W. Hanna is not at 71.1W. But NHC 200PM is what you have it at. Go figure.

Right that is where recon has Hanna

[jinftl]

why did the nhc report 71.1W? Did they make a typo?

;p

OK, Hanna is at the 12-hour forecast position that was set at 11am....so in 3 hours she got to where she was forecast to be at 11pm tonight. What's up?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT


2pm position: 23.5N 71.1W

VDM at 1350EST was 23.32N 70.56W. Hanna is not at 71.1W. But NHC 200PM is what you have it at. Go figure.

[Sirius LeWindy]

You are right Jeremy.

[KWT]

70.56 is still suggesting this system is going a good deal faster then pretty much any of the guidence, would suggest the models may be a bit too far east in the longer term?

[cpdaman]

you guys realize the difference between 70 56' and 71.1 is like 15 miles right?

70'56 = 70.9

and storms in NC , i think you are right about that deep band belonging to the ULL, which is interesting because i usually don't see deep convection in a ULL feature

on the visible , those with a keen eye, can see the deep convection to the SW of hanna, and that it doesn't quite fit a location (that would be associated w/ hanna) but displaced SW

[jinftl]

I am going with the NHC position at 2pm...we will see if they backtrack it at 5pm.

The next benchmark from the 11am forecast is hitting 72.1W at 11am on Monday. Let's see where we are with the next update.

OK, Hanna is at the 12-hour forecast position that was set at 11am....so in 3 hours she got to where she was forecast to be at 11pm tonight. What's up?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT


2pm position: 23.5N 71.1W

VDM at 1350EST was 23.32N 70.56W. Hanna is not at 71.1W. But NHC 200PM is what you have it at. Go figure.

Right that is where recon has Hanna

[captain east]

I don't buy the UKMET track. It seems to be an extreme outlier.

It might not be an outlier soon if Hanna keeps moving west this fast...

[jinftl]

The significance is that it hit it 9 hours ahead of schedule. By the same token, the forecast shows the storm moving about 60 miles in the next 21 hours (11am Monday forecast was at 72.1, currently at 71.1).....that would require a major slowdown asap.

you guys realize the difference between 70 56' and 71.1 is like 15 miles right?

70'56 = 70.9

[RL3AO]

There is a G-IV mission starting in the west atlantic. Maybe it will help the models with Hanna as well.

[Trader Ron]

I don't buy the UKMET track. It seems to be an extreme outlier.

It might not be an outlier soon if Hanna keeps moving west this fast...

We'll see. I think there's a greater chance that the UKMET comes in line with the consensus.

[KWT]

The other thing to note is the models all show a slower motion than they have now, this is going to require a shift eastwards in the models or a sharper turn to the north. Who knows E Florida needs to watch this very closely.

[cpdaman]

jinftl ok i understand , wasn't sure if that was what EVeryone was debating

we could use a pro met in here, derek ortt

AJC3 will probably drop by soon because he gave us a ton of good info last nite

he could also inform us about the latest thinking on intensity uncertainty's and this pesky ULL

[Weatherboy1]

it's worth noting the forward speed for sure, because that could make a difference between more of an UKMET-type scenario (Where the storm turns, but beginning at a point far enough S and W that South FL gets clipped/hit) or a GFS-type scenario, where the turn starts from a point farther north and east, in which case Hanna would likely turn somewhere in the Bahamas or to the east of the Bahamas and be a bigger threat farther up the coast.

[jlauderdal]

I don't buy the UKMET track. It seems to be an extreme outlier.

ron,

are you saying you never believe in outliers just because they are outliers or just in this case?

[tpr1967]

Also guys haven't you noticed that the center has moved 10 minutes s and 11 minutes w
since earlier recon.

714
URNT12 KNHC 311624 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/15:44:50Z
B. 23 deg 42 min N
070 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1420 m
D. 34 kt
E. 320 deg 62 nm
F. 058 deg 043 kt
G. 320 deg 063 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 18 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 06 CCA
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z

2nd Fix
518
URNT12 KNHC 311751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/17:36:20Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
070 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 44 kt
E. 046 deg 105 nm
F. 122 deg 045 kt
G. 043 deg 049 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 19 C/ 1520 m
J. 19 C/ 1520 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 43 / 49NM

Thats a sw movement

I messed up first time hehe.