ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mvtrucking]

The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.

The storm seems right on the NHC track pts. It looks like they nailed this storm out 7 days. Unbelievable.

[LAwxrgal]

This thing's trucking it. Did the models expect it to be moving this quickly?

Also, one question. According to the advisory, Gustav seems to be holding steady as a major, they're still forecasting strengthening before landfall. I have all the respect for the NHC, but is there warm enough water and a relaxing of the shear the system is currently undergoing going to take place? Please LMK. I left my house yesterday. Thanks.

[cpdaman]

Ts Force Winds out 200 miles, big storm.

well hurricane force go out only 30 miles in 3 quads, except 45 NE so , not that big of a core.

[ColdFusion]

The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.

Remember wxman57's stat from yesterday that in a 10 year study, roughly 75% of Gulf Storms go to the right of the official track.

[bigjohn]

Well I can't find it as we have gotten a new computer and it appears the file was not deemed worthy of transfer. I am finding NOAA data to support a Cat 3 storm at landfall with the anaysis saying it was unlikely that any of the winds in NOLA were greater than a Cat 2 level. That was essentially my point anyway. A NOLA Cat 2 could be devastating to the residents of NOLA even if it does not make some of the academic types tingle.

[Dean4Storms]

Turns out what I saw WAS indication of the relocation of the eye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 311750.txt

Huh, I don't understand? How can a cat 3 strorm eye relocate? I thought that only happened in weak storms. Where did it relocate to?

It relocated just a little to the west, and the old ragged irregular eye was shed and left to the north.

Circular now at 15 nm, open on the east, but I think it will close really soon.

It's not a relocation, the UL visible of the eye is sheared toward the NE and also the Sat Pic looks at the storm from a South to North perspective. This storm is tilted and that is why the storm is struggling to re-strengthen.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very Windy across Florida's peninsula.

Sustained Tropical Storm Force Winds Reaching Tampa Bay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MNP165
Saint Petersburg: East 39 mph, Gusts 46 mph


Very Windy across Florida's Peninsula in the Tampa Bay Area:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLCLEAR25
East 23 mph Gust 42 mph Clearwater Beach

Tampa Bay: E36 Gusts 47 mph
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MC6730

[HarlequinBoy]

Yep...NHC didnt move track much..maybe a tad west. With 30 hrs now...Landfall near 7am

7 AM is less than 30 hours.

[KWT]

LAwxrgal, the waters are easily warm enough for a cat-3 to strengthen at the speed Gustav's moving at, the waters are indeed shallow but its moving so quickly it won't really matter.

The key is does the shear ease up like some of the models are expecting?

ColdFusion, there is certainly something in that I think, I think Gustav may do the same thing actually and bend back a little north before landfall then swing back towards its previous path inland.

[cpdaman]

any pro's think this could hit just before dawn ? i.e 5-6 am

[PTrackerLA]

Agreed, NHC has done an unbelievable job with this forecast. We have basically been warned about this sytem possibly hitting LA since Wednesday and those forecasts are unfortunately coming true. It's making me sick reading these posts with people acting like a cat 3 is no big deal. Imagine being here. I saw what Rita did to Lake Charles and Beaumont and th at's what I'm bracing for here in Lafayette. My house is now a zoo with 6 dogs and 10 family members total. I took pictures of everything earlier just for memories if the worst were to happen. I'm very upset today.

[Buck]

Latest loops show the core seems to be filling in a bit more than it has been in the past few hours.

[LAwxrgal]

Agreed on the job the NHC has done with this storm. They basically nailed this a week in advance, and that's helped with evacuation and preparation. By all accounts a lot of people have actually heeded the warnings and gotten out.

[invest man]

SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

Quick question: what is the NHC seeing that would indicate re-intensification during the next 12-24 hours?

Just because it isn't over the loop current doesn't mean the water is too cold to sustain or strengthen. It is just too cold to sustain a cat 5, which needs more energy than a cat 4 and a 3.

I continue to see this sst map where it shows the really warm water in the loop current area and then I see the blue areas. Does anyone have a map showing what the blue sst are because I can't believe they are still not below 80 degrees f?

[HarlequinBoy]

I'm not trying to play Mr. Doomsday, but let's just assume that Gustav strengthens back up to maybe 125/130 mph.. at the rate it's moving there won't be much time for an ERC to occur before landfall.

[soonertwister]

It's not a relocation, the UL visible of the eye is sheared toward the NE and also the Sat Pic looks at the storm from a South to North perspective. This storm is tilted and that is why the storm is struggling to re-strengthen.

I don't think so, look at the position fix, then look at this snapshot I saw right around the time recon took the fix. It's located under the intense ball of convection that's been dominating on the west and south for hours.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... .100pc.jpg

[Thunder44]

The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.

The storm seems right on the NHC track pts. It looks like they nailed this storm out 7 days. Unbelievable.

Those aren't the same forecast track points they had for 7 days. They have been shifting the track points further east. So now it looks more on track.

[gboudx]

I continue to see this sst map where it shows the really warm water in the loop current area and then I see the blue areas. Does anyone have a map showing what the blue sst are because I can't believe they are still not below 80 degrees f?

I believe those maps show the water temperature at a certain depth. Not necessarily right at the surface.

[simplykristi]

I keep thinking back to Katrina three years ago. She came in as a Cat 3 but her surge was more like a Cat 5 if I remember correctly. Gustav should not be taken lightly. Gustav could remain a Cat 3 or even drop down to a Cat 2. The bottom line: Gustav will still cause damage wherever he makes landfall.

Kristi

Katrina's surge was at heights seen with cat 5 storms, and yes, she was a 3 at landfall in Mississippi.

Thats a fact dh but what people have to remember is that NOLA was on the east side. MGC got the worst of that surge but NOLA got most of the coverage due to severe flooding/rescues/looting. This makes the best headlines.

Gus is heading on a track that would put the worst of the surge on the westbank and right over my house in Lower Lafourche parish. I still think NOLA will see signifigant flooding, particularly if the east side levees don't hold again. I see a Cat 2-3 surge as plenty devastating for South La.
JMHO,
tim

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Thanks dhweather!

Tim,
NOLA was on the west side of Katrina not the east side. The MGC was on the east side. The highest winds and surge are in the right upper quadrant of the storm. It made sense that the MGC got the highest surge.

Kristi

Kristi

[Sabanic]

Very Windy across Florida's peninsula.

Sustained Tropical Storm Force Winds Reaching Tampa Bay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MNP165
Saint Petersburg: East 39 mph, Gusts 46 mph


Very Windy across Florida's Peninsula in the Tampa Bay Area:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLCLEAR25
East 23 mph Gust 42 mph Clearwater Beach

Tampa Bay: E36 Gusts 47 mph
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MC6730

Wow TBH! If you guys are getting that there really makes me a bit more concerned about what we could possibly get here. I'm only 6 miles from Mobile Bay