ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z Euro anyone?

[x-y-no]

12Z ECMWF is a bit more west - northern Bahamas on day 4, just offshore Jacksonville day 5, landfall in Georgia (presumably - it's between points) and inland over the Carolinas day 6.

[Dean4Storms]

The UKMET is seeing a stronger and more southern pushing ridge than the others.

[jaxfladude]

12Z ECMWF is a bit more west - northern Bahamas on day 4, just offshore Jacksonville day 5, landfall in Georgia (presumably - it's between points) and inland over the Carolinas day 6.

On the weak side of Hanna if she is not too strong that may be okay with me...no more than Mod TS winds/rainfall ammounts that is...

[x-y-no]

12Z ECMWF

Day 4:



Day 5:

[jinftl]

What happens between Day 4 and Day 5....turn north while east of south florida...or turn north while skirting entire florida east coast?

12Z ECMWF

Day 4:



Day 5:

[x-y-no]

What happens between Day 4 and Day 5....turn north while east of south florida...or turn north while skirting entire florida east coast?

Unfortunately, that site only does full-day time-points, so I don't know the answer to that.

Off topic, but I think this is 98L in the Bahamas on day 7:

EDIT I mean 97L

[jinftl]

Is this a shift from the prior run of this model in forecast track?

What happens between Day 4 and Day 5....turn north while east of south florida...or turn north while skirting entire florida east coast?

Unfortunately, that site only does full-day time-points, so I don't know the answer to that.

Off topic, but I think this is 98L in the Bahamas on day 7:

EDIT: I mean 97L

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is this a shift from the prior run of this model in forecast track?

What happens between Day 4 and Day 5....turn north while east of south florida...or turn north while skirting entire florida east coast?

Unfortunately, that site only does full-day time-points, so I don't know the answer to that.

Off topic, but I think this is 98L in the Bahamas on day 7:

Ys last hit SC AREA

[artist]

12Z ECMWF is a bit more west - northern Bahamas on day 4, just offshore Jacksonville day 5, landfall in Georgia (presumably - it's between points) and inland over the Carolinas day 6.

x-y-no I am seeing it go to the west coast here and then take a right over Florida. Am I reading this wrong?
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 112!!step/

never mind, that is the system right behind Hanna!

[jinftl]

What concerns me more than anything is that the local newspaper website here says 'Hanna moves north of south florida.'

With those words, they probably jinxed us....it has happened before! lol

[captain east]

That loop shows the eye of hanna riding on the East Florida coast though...

[ericinmia]

Ok i've been out pressure cleaning for a few hours... (hurricane prep? lol More like keep the family happy prep.)

Anyway, I see that she is moving west/with a possibility of a wobble sw? And quicker at that?
Well That makes me wonder about the viability of any of these models considering her movement...
Juding by what i've read (remember I was out side since 11:30am, she is should be well ahead of track.) Thoughts?
I don't really have time to go through all the data right now.

[ericinmia]

For whatever its worth... and the current track implications.

[jinftl]

The computer model pic shows the apparent disconnect between how hanna has been moving and what the models have been forecasting....is such a sharp nw turn immiment like most models show? Hoping 5pm discussion from nhc addresses this.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS is moving WSW in 6-24 hours!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[jlauderdal]

New GFS is moving WSW in 6-24 hours!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

north coast of cooba will end up with a ts watch if this thing verifies

[Recurve]

Does anybody know if the animations at FSU are as up to date as the single charts you're linking to? I've got to start looking at some models.

TS in the bahamas trapped under a ridge is not a good scenario.

OK, the 12z UKMET is terrible.
Looks like several reliable models all bring it to the same point in the Bahamas, where it dithers for a time and strengthens, then shoots to the north. The UKMET starts drifting it southwest where the others dither, and then sweeps it northward but into SFLA as I don't know how strong.

Couldn't get the GFDL to run for some reason, Java problem.

[bahamaswx]

Does anybody know if the animations at FSU are as up to date as the single charts you're linking to? I've got to start looking at some models.

TS in the bahamas trapped under a ridge is not a good scenario.

That's the 18z GFS. Most recent GFS I see at FSU is still the 12z run.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS makes the NW turn at around 78 hours, and the turn begins further south and west than before, so the westward trend continues.