ATL: IKE Discussion

[Bluefrog]

brent .... don't say things like that ..scares me ...

[KWT]

Interestingly the higher resolution models don't really strengthen Ike all that much in the next 36hrs on the 06z run but I thnik given the way Ike is developing now I'm more inclined to think it'll be stronger then expected by that point...

By the way the HWRF is an exact replica of the GFS...but then again they are both off the same data sothere you go, figures really!

[HURAKAN]

I do agree with you that our friends on the central Gulf Coast are less likely to heed any warnings having just returned home after what may be perceived as an unnecessary evacuation.

Lynn

Unnecessary? Did you see how close the water came to overtop the Industrial Canal? It was very necessary and if it's needed, people should do it again. This is what I worry, that people may start to think that the evacuation was unnecessary. Sorry, but if you live in New Orleans or near the coast in the Gulf of Mexico, evacuating for a major hurricane is always a sound advise. We have a lot of examples in the past 4 years of why evacuating the coast is the best solution. If you are alive and your house is gone then you can work to replace it. But if you die, you can't replace that.

Back to Ike:



Maybe the NHC is waiting for the eyewall to fully close to upgrade Ike to hurricane.

[Bluefrog]

I don't want to jump the gun but a 2nd evacuation for the north central gulf coast is going to be a HUGE discussion and problem next week IF Ike comes into the gom and turns north. I'm in Mississippi and I have already heard a ton of people say they won't leave if Ike comes. I think people in LA will also be slow to leave if they leave at all becasue it took hours for people to get out and many still can't return yet. This is a valid discussion that I think will be a huge one come this weekend assuming Ike enters the gulf.

[KWT]

When was that shot taken though Hurakan?

With Dvorak showing 4.0 I personally think they should upgrade, I'm sure if recon went in there they'd find hurricane force winds on the NE side...

[HURAKAN]

When was that shot taken though Hurakan?

With Dvorak showing 4.0 I personally think they should upgrade, I'm sure if recon went in there they'd find hurricane force winds on the NE side...

It's four hours old. It could be closed already.

[stormy1970al]

I don't want to jump the gun but a 2nd evacuation for the north central gulf coast is going to be a HUGE discussion and problem next week IF Ike comes into the gom and turns north. I'm in Mississippi and I have already heard a ton of people say they won't leave if Ike comes. I think people in LA will also be slow to leave if they leave at all becasue it took hours for people to get out and many still can't return yet. This is a valid discussion that I think will be a huge one come this weekend assuming Ike enters the gulf.

I have to agree with you on this and I don't think it is because they don't want to go but many people will not have the money to leave again. I know how much money I spent on supplies and I didn't even leave the area. I can only imagine how much those from LA and MS spent when they came over here, had to get a hotel, etc. I don't think it will be an issue on whether or not they want to but $$$. Unfortunately I think this is going to be one for Gulf of Mexico but like WKRG said it is too soon to tell this far out and we need to just watch it but not panic.

[KWT]

Ok thought so Hurakan, in that case thats about when the convection blew up in the western quadrant, that probably has since closed off the eyewall I bet.

By the way even IF the GFS is right and it does swing out to sea, this is still highly likely going to be a big problem for the Bahamas, therefore requires very close watching.

[stormchazer]

Any early thoughts on a potential Northern Gulf threat? So many people are just getting back and I really don't think they would leave if Ike gets close.(Like my in-laws!)
Sorry if this is in the wrong thread.

Any thoughts from the Board?

This would be a very low confidence forecast. Anything after 3 days is "throwing darts". Climatology would say, it recurves on SE coast, but it really is not a given what the steering will be like in the 4-6 day timeframe.

Stay on board and keep watching.

[Frank P]

A note about Dr Bill Williams of USA.. when I was at the Internation Paper Mill at Moss Point we paid Bill as our hurricane consultant.. he was very good, nailing both the Danny and the Georges track well in advance.. I got to talk to him daily on his forecasts relative to the storms as we made our plant preparations.. he is the quintessential meteorological professional...

Bluefrog I think the NGC will have problems getting people to evacuate again.. anything short of a definite Cat 4 or 5 heading right at someone might be the only way to get people to evacuate, anything less and I expect a plethora of people NOT to evacuate... hopefully a NGC hit does not come to fruition..

[HurricaneQueen]

This was not meant to be an offensive post. I knew I should have bolded the words Perceivied and Unnecessary. I am behind the evacuation 100% and believe it was handled expertly. Also, don't mean to get off topic but couldn't have that post out there with some believing that my thoughts were the exact opposite of what they are.

NOW back to Ike.

Lynn

I do agree with you that our friends on the central Gulf Coast are less likely to heed any warnings having just returned home after what may be perceived as an unnecessary evacuation.

Lynn

Unnecessary? Did you see how close the water came to overtop the Industrial Canal? It was very necessary and if it's needed, people should do it again. This is what I worry, that people may start to think that the evacuation was unnecessary. Sorry, but if you live in New Orleans or near the coast in the Gulf of Mexico, evacuating for a major hurricane is always a sound advise. We have a lot of examples in the past 4 years of why evacuating the coast is the best solution. If you are alive and your house is gone then you can work to replace it. But if you die, you can't replace that.

[HurricaneRobert]

If Ike becomes annular, would it be able to stay that way in the warm waters of the Gulf (or Caribbean)?

[micktooth]

I don't want to jump the gun but a 2nd evacuation for the north central gulf coast is going to be a HUGE discussion and problem next week IF Ike comes into the gom and turns north. I'm in Mississippi and I have already heard a ton of people say they won't leave if Ike comes. I think people in LA will also be slow to leave if they leave at all becasue it took hours for people to get out and many still can't return yet. This is a valid discussion that I think will be a huge one come this weekend assuming Ike enters the gulf.

I have to agree with you on this and I don't think it is because they don't want to go but many people will not have the money to leave again. I know how much money I spent on supplies and I didn't even leave the area. I can only imagine how much those from LA and MS spent when they came over here, had to get a hotel, etc. I don't think it will be an issue on whether or not they want to but $$$. Unfortunately I think this is going to be one for Gulf of Mexico but like WKRG said it is too soon to tell this far out and we need to just watch it but not panic.

I totally agree. Most of the people I've talked to back in NOLA think that this last evacuation was not worth it. Boy how time sure erases memories huh? A lot of people in southern Louisiana are very stubborn and unless it's a Cat4 or 5 they will stay. After seeing the Idustrial Canal Floodwall overtopped by Gustav, I don't think I would ever stay, but then again, my family and I moved to Colorado after Katrina!

[WmE]

If Ike becomes annular, would it be able to stay that way in the warm waters of the Gulf (or Caribbean)?

Actually annular storms are very rare in the Atlantic, as conditions don't favor the formation of many. So I doubt Ike will become annular.

[PTrackerLA]

People around here are already watching and talking about Ike. The evacuation of LA was not "unecessary" just because New Orleans didn't flood. Gustav was still a major event for Louisiana that will take months for some places to recover from. If Ike were to threaten next week, I'm not worried about complanceny. We take storms seriously here.

[Bluefrog]

Lynn, your post was not offensive at all. Actually, it spurred some good discussion. I think alot of people who saw the industrial canal on tv will think "well, it held, so i'm not leaving again" Another good point is the money issue ... it costs alot of money to prepare not to mention evacuating. Once the storm has passed whether you are directly affected or not ... you have to get home...unpack...clean up ... unboard your home, etc spend a day getting ready to go back to work that's if your work is open. I've even read on this board where people in LA only lost power for 2-4 hours. I think another threat will cause people to think twice about leaving. I won't even get into the emotional part of this ..... just this exercise this past week has worn me out.

[KWT]

I don't think there is much of a chance of this threatening the gulf now, there looks like being enough enough of a weakness to lift Ike out but to what degree and how soon that happens will determine exactly the track Ike takes.

[Sanibel]

Data Crunch:


The steering charts show a recurve type track in front of Florida with a ULL developing in the SE Gulf. I only compared the TRACK to the Labor Day storm - the other conditions look like shear could keep the high end down with Ike. However we already have Gus showing us that a system with another to its NNW (Fay) can bomb out to upper category 4 as Gus did. Ike should track over all water. This would be bad if an all water Gus analogy is accurate.

It's still too early, but GFDL has been very accurate at sniffing out these south dips. GFDL looked whack, but its Jamaica dip was accurate amongst the models. If GFDL is seeing a Cuba dip and the models are showing a recurve synoptic I would blend the two at this point and hook a curving track into Florida. The evolving trend could tend right as Hanna is showing us.

You can see how much the ridge builds west on the 48 hour chart. I assume it keeps doing that on the 72 hour chart.

[RL3AO]

New microwave.



Eyewall is closed or almost closed.

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane-look.