ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

KWT i would guess as hanna makes it to a positon to the NE of the ULL she would be in a more favorable enviornemt- does this make sense

and with the ull moving SW and hanna moving N this should occur by late tonite, agree?

[KWT]

Seems to be me based on sat imagery Hanna is starting to really pick up foward speed now heading NW. Convection on the northern side of the LLC and constantly developing quite strongly.

[storms in NC]

Seem to the moving NW now at about 315*
I think she will be a cat 2 at land fall but she could be a low 3. As big as she is she has keeped TS as bad as she looked and to me she had a very bad hair day yesterday.

[KWT]

Agreed storms in NC looks like a NW motion to me, new burst of convection just went up close to the LLC as well it seems.

[greels]

I feel like I am reliving "Groundhog Day"!

We've been entertaining Hanna for days now! here on Providenciales

You are no longer welcome here...not that you ever were......,

These sleepless nights are really beginning to take a toll on us.....a lot of folks are emotionally exhausted from this storm.

It just seems to never end.....

[cpdaman]

Seems to be me based on sat imagery Hanna is starting to really pick up foward speed now heading NW. Convection on the northern side of the LLC and constantly developing quite strongly.

upon further review, i agree KWT she is/has picked up forward speed and i see a motion

NNW at about 340 degrees, wouldn't say NW yet do you think it will turn more left

[cpdaman]

I feel like I am reliving "Groundhog Day"!

We've been entertaining Hanna for days now! here on Providenciales

You are no longer welcome here...not that you ever were......,

sorry if this is out there but i felt like i was reliving a combination of ground hog day and ferris buellers day off a month after i put in my two weeks at the beginning of summer, sadly i have 2 jobs now and that feeling is over.

back to hanna

the SE still has to pay careful attention to this and i hope people in NC take this seriously as it shows signs that it could intensify into the coast

anyone know what JB is saying now (is it still the great atlantic cane)

[fasterdisaster]

Hanna's breathing easier this afternoon. That 40 knot shear is to her west and decreasing. She used to be on top of 80 knot shear to give you context.

[fasterdisaster]

I'd say she's definitely moving northwest now.

[KWT]

Shear is easing, not quite gone yet mind you but we should see some slow reorganisation from Hanna, note for the enxt 12-24hrs it will be slow.

I do foresee a very good set-up for strengthening between 48-72hrs.

Actuallu it probably is closer to NNW than NW right now, I think it may bend a little more to the left but by a big deal...then the major question is when does that turn begin...

[sfwx]

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

[capepoint]

Seem to the moving NW now at about 315*
I think she will be a cat 2 at land fall but she could be a low 3. As big as she is she has keeped TS as bad as she looked and to me she had a very bad hair day yesterday.

I would really rather not have to deal with anything over a cat 1 thank-you. I can see Cape Lookout Lighthouse from my house.

[cpdaman]

Seem to the moving NW now at about 315*
I think she will be a cat 2 at land fall but she could be a low 3. As big as she is she has keeped TS as bad as she looked and to me she had a very bad hair day yesterday.

I would really rather not have to deal with anything over a cat 1 thank-you. I can see Cape Lookout Lighthouse from my house.

no way 315 IMO

this looks NNW bout 340 to me, howver it just started moving so it's kinda tuff to forecast a trajectory based on two hours lol, however is that weakeness to her north supposed to fill

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

otherwise our gaile could just scoot north east of the conus, right

[storms in NC]

This may help some one.

[img][/img]

[capepoint]

I hope that if/when this thing hits it is at low tide. We on the southern outer banks have been having very high tides for the past few days. Today high tide was up to the dunes along parts of Bouge Banks. This could get real nasty.

[KWT]

Tracking these systems using just eyeballing methods isn't easy, I think about 330 but with constant convective blow ups on a lopsided system makes it hard to make a very accurate judgement.

[JonathanBelles]

Atlantis, scheduled to roll out 11 days ago, was postponed by Fay....and there is now a meeting tomorrow to see if Atlantis will roll out with the threat of Hanna or not. Launch is set for October 8th, but at this point I dont see that happening.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

tolakram, Hanna never did complete a typical cyclonic loop but I suppose its going to close that loop off now its finally gaining some westerly motion to its movement at last!

[fasterdisaster]

I'd say 330.