ATL: IKE Discussion

[gatorcane]

From the 5pm disco...

THE BIG QUESTION AT LONGER RANGES
IS IF AND WHEN IKE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT
RIDGE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IKE DIRECTLY AFFECTS ANY LAND
AREAS. THE MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE AN UNANIMOUS ANSWER...WHICH IS
NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE
BEGINNINGS OF A MOTION NORTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE START OF RECURVATURE...OR IF
ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BEYOND DAY 5 TO KEEP IKE MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD

.

In other word we don't know yet

I'm still leaning towards a recurve in the Bahamas at this point.

[CrazyC83]

The last Dvorak estimates were T4.5 which equate to 77 kt. Given its appearance, I'd say it is 80 kt right now.

[rockyman]

Taken at face value, the NHC is not forecasting a recurve yet, because they do not believe the data supports (yet) such a forecast (also because the recurve is not predicted to occur until after Day 5):

From the disco:

All of the models do show the
beginnings of a motion north of due west by day 5...but it is too
early to determine if this is the start of recurvature...or if
enough ridging will remain beyond day 5 to keep Ike moving
generally westward.

[Air Force Met]

Saying a recurve is 'likely' is absolutely ludicrous. Half the models and the NHC still do not call for this.

I think that's a little insulting. There is nothing ludicrous about it. There is a very good reason to forecast the beginnings of a recurve. Many of the models are starting to show a sharper hook at the end of day 4 and 5...into the break.

[chris_fit]

Looking at her this morning... IMO I believe that she will strengthen significantly today. She is wrapping herself as I type this in intense convection around the center. I expect a rather large increase in strength by 11pm.

Shoulda said 5pm... heh

However, I expect another bump in intensity by 11pm. She's rollin' to the west!!!

[HURAKAN]

I would wait for more data and especially, when the RECON begins to investigate the hurricane in a few days.

[Tampa_God]

On the discussion of any possibility of this storm recurving, it seems too early to predict if that could happen. At the moment, it seems like the high steering Ike to the West will still be persistant in the area 5 days out and continue Ike in a westward motion. But it's still too far out to tell what this high will do and the future track of Ike.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

CrazyC83, true but the other agency was only at 3.8 at the time, hence why I suppose they went for something in the middle of the two, 70kts...

AFM, I agree there is nothing ludicrous about it, based on the data we have right now its the more likely option that after 120hrs we see some sort of recurve, how sharp remains to be seen, I think the GFS is being a little to agressive with how soon it takes it out, I'm thinking the ECM is about right at the moment but who knows?!

[fasterdisaster]

Saying a recurve is 'likely' is absolutely ludicrous. Half the models and the NHC still do not call for this.

I think that's a little insulting. There is nothing ludicrous about it. There is a very good reason to forecast the beginnings of a recurve. Many of the models are starting to show a sharper hook at the end of day 4 and 5...into the break.

I wasn't trying to insult you, I apologize, and I wasn't referring to your sentiments. As a pro met you can say whatever you forecast and it deserves respect, and I don't think it's ludicrous to say you think it will happen but some other members (again not you) were saying that he would miss the US and there was nothing to worry about when the NHC doesn't call for this and none of the models give a track where the US would be out of the woods.

[KWT]

The other thing to note is looks like Ike is going to come in a little above the forecasted path from the NHC, not by much at all but just a smidge though the motion in the last few hours has bent back closed to the west again i think which may bring it back close to the NHC forecasted track.

[fasterdisaster]

Big thunderstorms towering around the eye right now. I really doubt this is 80 mph.

[Air Force Met]

CrazyC83, true but the other agency was only at 3.8 at the time, hence why I suppose they went for something in the middle of the two, 70kts...

AFM, I agree there is nothing ludicrous about it, based on the data we have right now its the more likely option that after 120hrs we see some sort of recurve, how sharp remains to be seen, I think the GFS is being a little to agressive with how soon it takes it out, I'm thinking the ECM is about right at the moment but who knows?!

I agree. I think the GFS is a little early and sharp with the push into the break. I think the break is likely to set up more over FL or right off the coast.

if I had to guess right now...I would say a track within 100 miles of Floyd's track...only a little slower around the Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

Hurricane Ike:

70 kts is an irresponsibly low estimate for this quickly strengthening storm IMO. It wouldn't shock me if this was Category 2 right now.

huh, what is irresponsible about it, what data do you have to support anything higher

[Sabanic]

According to the 5PM NHC discussion they are still very unsure if and when Ike will curve northward and seem to have little confidence in what some of the models are showing.

Sounds to me like a crap shoot for the next 4-6 days.

[fasterdisaster]

Hurricane Ike:

70 kts is an irresponsibly low estimate for this quickly strengthening storm IMO. It wouldn't shock me if this was Category 2 right now.

huh, what is irresponsible about it, what data do you have to support anything higher

Satellite, the only thing the NHC cites in their estimate. At this point that far out at sea, we know as much as they do.

[jlauderdal]

Saying a recurve is 'likely' is absolutely ludicrous. Half the models and the NHC still do not call for this.

i dont recall anyone saying recurve is likely, there is model support for the idea so anyone throwing that out there has a basis for it where yesterday it seemed like it was a long runner to the gulf, plenty of time to watch it and see how it plays out. btw, check your PM

[Air Force Met]

Saying a recurve is 'likely' is absolutely ludicrous. Half the models and the NHC still do not call for this.

I think that's a little insulting. There is nothing ludicrous about it. There is a very good reason to forecast the beginnings of a recurve. Many of the models are starting to show a sharper hook at the end of day 4 and 5...into the break.

I wasn't trying to insult you, I apologize, and I wasn't referring to your sentiments. As a pro met you can say whatever you forecast and it deserves respect, and I don't think it's ludicrous to say you think it will happen but some other members (again not you) were saying that he would miss the US and there was nothing to worry about when the NHC doesn't call for this and none of the models give a track where the US would be out of the woods.

This from the discussion.

THE BIG QUESTION AT LONGER RANGES IS IF AND WHEN IKE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT
RIDGE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IKE DIRECTLY AFFECTS ANY LAND AREAS.

I can also tell you that from the calls that they are not discounting the idea that Ike could entirely miss the US coast. Just because the track doesn't show it doesn't mean they aren't considering it.

And...the AVNO is calling for a miss off the east coast. The UKMET implies it (and teh NHC is no longer discounting them per the call).

So...some model is calling for a track that kees the US out of the woods.

[fasterdisaster]

Saying a recurve is 'likely' is absolutely ludicrous. Half the models and the NHC still do not call for this.

i dont recall anyone saying recurve is likely, there is model support for the idea so anyone throwing that out there has a basis for it where yesterday it seemed like it was a long runner to the gulf, plenty of time to watch it and see how it plays out. btw, check your PM

Already addressed that above, and actually on the last two pages several people were saying it was 'likely'.

[jasons2k]

Can we please stop with all the "irresponsible/ludicrous" name-calling, etc.? All it does is fan the flames. Let's stick to the discussion at hand please, thanks.

Also, just to be very literal here, Ike will most likely recurve at some point as most hurricanes do. If it hits Florida first or even gets into the Gulf of Mexico and then hits Pensacola, it still is recurving, just further west. Missing the coast doesn't define "recurving" - that's more specifically a recurving fish