ATL: IKE Discussion

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Hurricanewatcher2007
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#861 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:31 pm

This pinhole eye reminds me of Wilma!

(No this is not Wilma. No this is not going to bottom out in the low 880mbs like Wilma! No this is not going to become a Monster cat 5 like Wilma! By saying this reminds of Wilma I am not saying its going to be like Wilma so please have mercy on my poor soul and don't attack me!)
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#862 Postby El Nino » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:33 pm

Impressive but not cat2 so fast I think. Maybe tonight.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#863 Postby MGC » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:36 pm

Ike looks to be intensifying at a good rate. If this trend continues Ike should be a solid Cat-2 by the next advisory. Should have at least another 24 hours before the upper level becomes a little less favorable. Ike could reach Cat-3 tomorrow IMO. Things should get interesting later in the week for the folks in the Bahama's.....MGC

Of course the above opinion is that of MGC's and not S2K......MGC
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#864 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:36 pm

Well I guess I know what I am going to be doing tonight! Staying up all night watching Ike.
Last edited by Hurricanewatcher2007 on Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#865 Postby DanKellFla » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:36 pm

How long until the Hurricane Hunters can fly in?
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#866 Postby WmE » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:37 pm

MGC wrote:Ike looks to be intensifying at a good rate. If this trend continues Ike should be a solid Cat-2 by the next advisory. Should have at least another 24 hours before the upper level becomes a little less favorable. Ike could reach Cat-3 tomorrow IMO. Things should get interesting later in the week for the folks in the Bahama's.....MGC

Of course the above opinion is that of MGC's and not S2K......MGC


And I pretty much agree with you.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#867 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:37 pm

:uarrow: Lets leave politics out as its not allowed.
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Re:

#868 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:38 pm

DanKellFla wrote:How long until the Hurricane Hunters can fly in?


They should be flying in Friday:

4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY START 12-HRLY FIXES ON
TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 05/1800Z NEAR 21.5N 69.0W.
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Frank P
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#869 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:38 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:Watch this loop! You can clearly see the eye contract and now I would say it has a pinhole eye now!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-jsl.html


Awesome... also looks like Ike might need to get just a little more northerly component in his track if he is going to hit that next forecast point... my untrained unprofessional opinion fwiw

I have a business trip next Tuesday at West Palm Beach.. now that could get interesting...
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#870 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:39 pm

Just looking at microwave images from Dean and Felix last year at 85kt (cat 2), they're eyewalls on microwave were not even close to looking this good. I'll go back and look at other big storms at cat 2 intensity and see what they show.
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#871 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:42 pm

I think RL3AO thats reflected in such high raw T numbers, clearly this system is really ramping upnow with a real solid eyewall nearly the whole way round the eye, its got a really great presentation, I strongly suspect this is probably around 80-85kts right now, I'd go higher but it obviously takes times for the winds to ramp up to match the presentation.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#872 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:42 pm

El Nino wrote:Impressive but not cat2 so fast I think. Maybe tonight.


Looks like a Cat 3 to me...or at least a high 2 (edit to add last)
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#873 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:44 pm

I think the NHC should increase it now to 90 or 95 knots on next advisory. The eyewall is rock solid with a rapidly shrinking eye. I don't know if this is RI or not, but its very fast.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#874 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:46 pm

Latest image:

Image
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#875 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:47 pm

Wow.. theres GREEN in that IR :O
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#876 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:47 pm

NHC never went with a track south of Jamaica (edit: initially). The original track was north of Cuba. They didn't have it going south of Jamaica until adv 13.



Never the less what is important is the tendency for NHC track to originate north and end up more south with a dip estimated into the equation. In this case it has to be adjusted for the northern recurvature climatology in this area further NE of Gus's dip southwest.
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#877 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:47 pm

Image

Quite impressive. I agree, 95 knots - 100 knots. The NHC may go lower to be conservative.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#878 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:48 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:Latest image:

Image


WOW.
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#879 Postby WmE » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:48 pm

Wow it really almost looks like a major. I didn't expect to see that. Solid CDO developing too.
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#880 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:48 pm

Looking at the structure, I'd say it has jumped to at least 90 kt now.

If the T-numbers rise a lot, could we see a special advisory at 8 pm?
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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