ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Well the GFDL and even the HWRF makes things look possibly bad down the road here in the Panhandle, great!

[Scorpion]

Well the GFDL and even the HWRF makes things look possibly bad down the road here in the Panhandle, great!

Nah, it would likely curve into the West Coast ala Donna.

[Cape Verde]

I want to know when the models agree whether or not this storm gets into the Gulf. That completely determines whether I follow this storm intellectually or whether I start getting my judgment clouded by worrying about my personal situation.

I know, there's still plenty of time for that question to be resolved before I change my mental outlook. But I know myself well enough to know that I tend to hang on to every single new post when I think there's a potential personal threat.

[Sabanic]

Well the GFDL and even the HWRF makes things look possibly bad down the road here in the Panhandle, great!

Nah, it would likely curve into the West Coast ala Donna.

Only time will tell. Too much time for too many changes to still take place with old Ike.

[ronjon]

Wow thats a splitting image of Donna there...

Or the labor day storm of 1935.

[ronjon]

18Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18Z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008090418-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

Anyway a little too soon to put to much faith into the track just yet, the NHC will probably shift a little south next advisory but maybe not by a huge deal who knows?

Scorpion, yep HWRF is a splitting image of Donna it seems...

[stayawaynow]

What is the thought as to what IKE does after landfall, say in SE FL? Go across and out on the west side or go up the state again like wilma but from the other side? I ask because many people will be thinking about evacuation to Orlando? Is this a feasible thing to do?

[ronjon]

What completely floors me with the models is that the GFS keeps insisting on a recurve while the Euro pushes the storm into Cuba and the central GOM. How can two very fine operational models be so far off? I'm placing my bets on the tropical dynamical models, GFDL and HWRF - they seem to key in on the building ridge and strength of the storm. Might we see a GOM threat eventually - looking more and more likely with each model run.

[Scorpion]

What is the tought as to what IKE does after landfall, say in SE FL? Go across and out on the west side or go up the state again like wilma but from the other side? I ask because many people will be thinking about evacuation to Orlando? Is this a feasible thing to do?

If it takes a track similar to Donna then conditions as bad or worse than Charley could be expected there(basically it would be a bad idea).

[Ixolib]

Anyway a little too soon to put to much faith into the track just yet, the NHC will probably shift a little south next advisory but maybe not by a huge deal who knows?

Scorpion, yep HWRF is a splitting image of Donna it seems...

If you're talking about THIS Donna, y'all surely got DAT right!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Donna struck the Florida Keys WELL northeast of Key West... the center crossed over Long Key and Conch Key, both of which are located NE of Marathon.

Landfall intensity was 115-120 kt/930 mb (as opposed to the HWRF's <908 mb minimum central pressure).

[KWT]

Yeah but the overall evolution is still very close...and given we've really not got any decent system to compare Ike to its probably the closest we've got...

[Bocadude85]

anyone think the NHC will show a landfall tonight at 11?

[ronjon]

Donna struck the Florida Keys WELL northeast of Key West... the center crossed over Long Key and Conch Key, both of which are located NE of Marathon.

Landfall intensity was 115-120 kt/930 mb (as opposed to the HWRF's <908 mb minimum central pressure).

Better analog maybe 1935 storm.

[dizzyfish]

anyone think the NHC will show a landfall tonight at 11?

Nope. Still way to far out.

[HURAKAN]

[LowndesCoFire]

Donna struck the Florida Keys WELL northeast of Key West... the center crossed over Long Key and Conch Key, both of which are located NE of Marathon.

Landfall intensity was 115-120 kt/930 mb (as opposed to the HWRF's <908 mb minimum central pressure).

Better analog maybe 1935 storm.

THAAAANNNKKKSSSS!

[Bocadude85]

Possible hurricane conditions now mentioned for tuesday on the NWS MIAMI local forecast page

[ConvergenceZone]

While I know it's just a long term prediction that can change, has anyone seen our local METs deltadog03's forecast of Ike that he just posted? Talk about goosebumps and not good ones...

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