ATL: IKE Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1821 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:48 pm

Just an observation.....Ike looks to be missing his next forecast point to the south a tad....not a big deal...just thought I would mention it... :D

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10154
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1822 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:48 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22984
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1823 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:49 pm

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1824 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:50 pm

Blown_away wrote:IMO, just S of due W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html



I would agree with that statement.....
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1825 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Image



havent see you talk about the EURO today....I thought that was interesting.....you do like the EURO if a recall..... :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1826 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Image


How do you have access to the models before they are released, or are those the models from the previous run?
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1827 Postby jinftl » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:52 pm

Hurricane watches and warnings would be issued long before Monday night....we may have to go through the steps for preparation if it comes down to the wire that close...even with the GFDL's latest run.

wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
MusicCityMan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:57 pm
Location: Somewhere in Central Florida

#1828 Postby MusicCityMan » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:53 pm

Models will be shifting lots next few days. not yet sold at all on those turns..esp if it turns up this way :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
NativeFloridaGirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:07 am
Location: In Exile In Lower Alabama

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1829 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Image


Ouch. Not giving any time for evacuations and preparations if it will be here on Tuesday night.

~Beth~
0 likes   

Tertius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 127
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:12 pm
Location: Delray Beach, FL

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1830 Postby Tertius » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Image


But those are the old models are they not? The ones run last night? It is the runs 12 hours later that showed a westward trend and sent everyone into a minor tizzy. Unless I am mistaken, someone correct me if so.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1831 Postby jinftl » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:55 pm

With tropical storm force winds possibly commencing 12 to 18 hours sooner even....a late Tuesday landfalls means preps need to be done on Monday. If the Keys need to be evacuated, that will start even earlier.

NativeFloridaGirl wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Image


Ouch. Not giving any time for evacuations and preparations if it will be here on Tuesday night.

~Beth~
Last edited by jinftl on Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#1832 Postby Scorpion » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:55 pm

Wow big shift east. I knew going through the Straits or Cuba was unreasonable.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22984
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1833 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:59 pm

ROCK wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep5a.gif



havent see you talk about the EURO today....I thought that was interesting.....you do like the EURO if a recall..... :D


A model that shifts 1000 miles east or west from run to run doesn't give me confidence. The EC had Hanna going into SE LA for quite a few runs late last week. It was wrong then. For some reason, the Euro is the only model that doesn't see the ridge in the NW-north-central Gulf next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#1834 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:59 pm

If I had to put money on it, I would predict a recurve just E of FL. That's just me though. Latest models seem to draw this pattern. Still a long way off, and it could recurve W, over or E of FL. Also, this reminds me of Floyd (except smaller), so maybe that is why I am feeling recurve just east.

This is going to be a close one, and going to get a lot of people worked up. Already here in FL everyone is talking about this storm, wondering what next week will bring.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22984
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1835 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:00 pm

Tertius wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep5a.gif


But those are the old models are they not? The ones run last night? It is the runs 12 hours later that showed a westward trend and sent everyone into a minor tizzy. Unless I am mistaken, someone correct me if so.


Old? 2 hours old.
0 likes   

jhpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 570
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

#1836 Postby jhpigott » Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:01 pm

i'm confused

the 18Z GDFL and HWRF just came out a couple hours ago and are actually much further south . . .

18Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18Z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re:

#1837 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:03 pm

jhpigott wrote:i'm confused

the 18Z GDFL and HWRF just came out a couple hours ago and are actually much further south . . .

18Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18Z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

the models he posted are the same ones you just posted
0 likes   

Sihara
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 137
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1838 Postby Sihara » Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:04 pm

Agua wrote:Pine and pecan.


Very true. And laurel oak, ficus benjamina, and casuarina - if they fall on your house, can do awful damage. Also, I think it goes without saying that a sturdy house means one that is adequately tied into foundations. Some of the older ones aren't - they're not too much better than mobiles I'd guess.

This looks very threatening, we can only hope that the trough speeds up and carries Ike away from the coast. The cone, though, seems to look more ominous than it did this morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22984
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#1839 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:04 pm

jhpigott wrote:i'm confused

the 18Z GDFL and HWRF just came out a couple hours ago and are actually much further south . . .

18Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18Z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


GFDL dips Ike way down near Haiti (like every other storm this year) then turns it to 320 deg near Cuba, heading for south FL. End point is more of a NW movement vs. last run.
0 likes   

lonelymike
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 634
Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:12 am
Location: walton county fla

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#1840 Postby lonelymike » Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:04 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

Image


How do you have access to the models before they are released, or are those the models from the previous run?


Gotta know whose palms to grease :wink:
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests