ATL: IKE Discussion

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KWT
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#2061 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:10 am

The thing to note is that quite a few models get Ike close enough tto /cuba that even if it doesn't make landfall there its inflow would be taking in some less moist air from the land which would limit any strengthening.

I'd guess the motion being around 265 but the shear may wel be making it look more southerlu I'd guess.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2062 Postby amanda » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:12 am

Grease Monkey wrote:But they have the tampa shield. 8-)


i wish... actually, the last time i brought that up (and i was obviously joking), i got hammered by posts explaining how a shield doesn't exist. good luck to you! :)
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Re: Re:

#2063 Postby robbielyn » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:12 am

jinftl wrote:storms have doe such a move....move from east to west either across the florida peninsula or through the florida straits....and effected the upper gulf.....1947 fort lauderdale hurricane, betsy, andrew, katrina, rita.....had general paths like that.

robbielyn wrote:what are the chances this could cross south fl and hit la or tx? like do a wilma or something?


I live in the tampabay area. I can buy a sfl hit but i am more apt to buy an arc like motion upside down like a smiley. I think it will go into the straits and do a wnw heading. hard time believing an east of the fl panhandle solution if this makes it into the gulf. don't buy a peninsula solution either unless it crosses tip of sfl into the gulf that makes some sense too. but not an up-the-middle through the heart of the peninsula.
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#2064 Postby HenkL » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:13 am

Not any sign that they are flying: no HDOB, no RECCO messages, no dropsondes.
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#2065 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:14 am

Cycloneye would it be possible to put a timetable up for the recon missions.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2066 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:18 am

Image
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#2067 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:18 am

robbielyn, models are starting to come inline with that sort of thinking, we have to wait and see I suppose.

Models still suggesting Turks and Caicos Islands will probably get cat-3, maybe 4 conditions, really looking very bad for them unless it stays to the north which I hope is the case.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2068 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:19 am

He is also going to miss his next forecast point to the south...two in a row....motion looks SW with crazy shear slowly unstacking him.....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html
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#2069 Postby robbielyn » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:20 am

We do have a tampa shield and theres a reason for it. Its how we are geographically located. if look look at a wide angled map of the atlantic, carribean, gom region of the fl coast storms coming from the atlantic usually have to go south of cuba near the yucatan and make a wide right curve to get us. We are way inland compared to the southwest part of fl that gets hit more than we do. we would have a better chance of a gom home brew in october. It's really really hard for storms to bullseye tampa other places stick out more or are geographically located in a better target area. Lots of storms coming from the carrib south of cuba head towards the panhandle or points westward. To me this is one of the safest areas to not be directly impacted along the coast. We do get brushes of course but ec fl and the swfl and panhandle areas are the ones that are more in the path of direct landfalls. But once in a while one will hit here but cant 100% rule it out just rare thats all like a ga hit is rare.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2070 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:21 am

Starting to watch with a little more interest since I'm in the wind prob's chart (10% for TS conditions through 5 days now...)

I don't think this will make it into the Gulf (even though if you extrapolate the motion from the end line of the forecast period, it would... but I'd expect a turn north shortly after making landfall in Florida... if it makes it that far), but I've started to get that "hmmm, better watch it" thing going on.
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Re:

#2071 Postby VeniceInlet » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:22 am

Myersgirl wrote:In the past, the center of the 5 day cone was generally a safe place to be, but this year they seem to have been getting more accurate on the 5 day


I don't think this should be accepted as fact. Each weather system is different with a different set of possibilities and uncertainties, and if you read the advisories, the NHC is usually pretty explicit about what the uncertainties or confidences are present in the five day forecast. The latest Ike advisory includes language of uncertainty.

And for a recent example, look at Fay. On the loop, the track goes everywhere from the panhandle and back in the five day track.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml
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Re:

#2072 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:22 am

KWT wrote:robbielyn, models are starting to come inline with that sort of thinking, we have to wait and see I suppose.

Models still suggesting Turks and Caicos Islands will probably get cat-3, maybe 4 conditions, really looking very bad for them unless it stays to the north which I hope is the case.


Ok, so it's not going to hit South Florida and go into the gulf through the straits? The news people are urging everyone to get their supplies and enact hurricane preparedness plans, but I guess it's not necessary then for me to do anything?

I know some pro-mets here were saying it would go east of Florida completely last night, so forgive me if I'm totally confused.
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#2073 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:24 am

Wow...Ike is indeed getting unstacked, i've never seen a major hurricane do that before in my life! :eek:

That probably explains why it seems to be trakcing WSW, the LLC is heading further west then the convection, could be about to under RW... :?:

The other thing is what does the track do now, the mid levels are certainly heading SW now, does lower levels try and follow because if they do then this system will end up way south where the NHC progs.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2074 Postby loxahatchee13 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:27 am

nativeflgirl, I dont think I would be under the assumption that you in the treasure coast are in the all clear yet. still quite a bit of time for things to change back and forth as they prob will
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Re: Re:

#2075 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:27 am

NativeFloridaGirl wrote:
KWT wrote:robbielyn, models are starting to come inline with that sort of thinking, we have to wait and see I suppose.

Models still suggesting Turks and Caicos Islands will probably get cat-3, maybe 4 conditions, really looking very bad for them unless it stays to the north which I hope is the case.


Ok, so it's not going to hit South Florida and go into the gulf through the straits? The news people are urging everyone to get their supplies and enact hurricane preparedness plans, but I guess it's not necessary then for me to do anything?

I know some pro-mets here were saying it would go east of Florida completely last night, so forgive me if I'm totally confused.




you NEED to prepare...follow your local official info....NOT HERE....
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Re: Re:

#2076 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:28 am

hold the presses...no one has sounded the all clear for south florida....even central florida...with the margin of error of all forecasts this far out, there is no way to say for sure....if you are in the cone, assume it is a threat. If you are placed under a hurricane watch or warning, act accordingly.

NativeFloridaGirl wrote:
KWT wrote:robbielyn, models are starting to come inline with that sort of thinking, we have to wait and see I suppose.

Models still suggesting Turks and Caicos Islands will probably get cat-3, maybe 4 conditions, really looking very bad for them unless it stays to the north which I hope is the case.


Ok, so it's not going to hit South Florida and go into the gulf through the straits? The news people are urging everyone to get their supplies and enact hurricane preparedness plans, but I guess it's not necessary then for me to do anything?

I know some pro-mets here were saying it would go east of Florida completely last night, so forgive me if I'm totally confused.
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Re:

#2077 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:29 am

KWT wrote:Wow...Ike is indeed getting unstacked, i've never seen a major hurricane do that before in my life! :eek:

That probably explains why it seems to be trakcing WSW, the LLC is heading further west then the convection, could be about to under RW... :?:

The other thing is what does the track do now, the mid levels are certainly heading SW now, does lower levels try and follow because if they do then this system will end up way south where the NHC progs.



yep, this keeps up a cat 2 downgrade looks warranted.....I still think hes heading SW rather than the LLC...thats some serious shear.....
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#2078 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:29 am

Yeah notice this:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This SW motion by the mid levels has thrown any solution into doubt, no model really progged that sharp of a dive...Cuba landfall seems to have to increased quite a bit in terms of risk.

i'm not so sure Rock, note all the lower level clouds streaming in towards the LLC whilst the mid levl circulation seems further south, now that probably is 30kts of shear.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2079 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:30 am

any chance Ike just falls apart and dies?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2080 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:31 am

ROCK wrote:He is also going to miss his next forecast point to the south...two in a row....motion looks SW with crazy shear slowly unstacking him.....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html


i looked at visible and looks like it went right over the 09 point, veering south for the 18 but that could be wobble...are you seeing something completely different than me
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