ATL: IKE Discussion

[cpdaman]

so is it also advantageous for the keys to be at the 4-day point now, since that far out has a large margin of error as well?

the theory is you want to be at the 5 day point because of NHC's error forecasting that far out, you have to agree there is some merit to the thought of it. Of course you have gustav where that idea didnt workout so well.

excellent i think you captured the stupidity of that logic brilliantly

the point being 5 days out when it points at you, it will shift and then when it shifts again it probably has the highest % chance to shift back over you.

[hiflyer]

First off, if the track holds, I would think that possibly the Turks and Caicos as well as the extreme southern part of the Bahamas are going to possibly have problems with the potential for a minimum Cat2...possibly Cat3 based on NHC posted intensities. These are low limestone islands...not much height above sea level with 9 foot potential surge could develop based on the forecasted winds. 30,000 inhabitants on 8 main islands with 30 more smaller ones. Hannah has already flooded the southern Caicos...pix and storm reports here
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/tci.shtml and here http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/bahamas.shtml

I am concerned that the same problems could very well transfer to the Keys...far more infrastructure/80,000 population but no more height above sea level and only one way out...and that is into southern Dade which could be fairly well impacted itself if Ike has a large windfield or tracks just a touch north.

Lastly the 5 pm track does show a significant slow down just past the Keys...the windfield could still be impacting the islands and a possible turn into unsuspecting SW Florida....the 1960 Donna track has been talked about already as a guide..very similar track into the Keys at pretty much the same time of year.

Part of the KEYW NOAA discussion at 4p
.MEDIUM AND LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH THAT HURRICANE IKE WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...CLIMATOLOGY DOES NOT FAVOR A
MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO DIG ENOUGH SOUTH TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HENCE...MOST MEDIUM
RANGE/DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE REVEALING THAT HURRICANE IKE WILL NOT
RE-CURVE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THIS LIKELY
SCENARIO...HURRICANE IKE WILL LIKELY TRACK WESTWARD BETWEEN THE ISLE
OF PINES...SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FURTHERMORE...ANY WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WOULD PROMPT HURRICANE IKE TO SLOW DOWN NEAR 80 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE.

[SouthFLTropics]

SFT, what are you seeing?

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Watch the loop and see how all of the clouds stream from SouthEast to Northwest following Hanna into the weakness. The question is whether or not it will fill after Hanna leaves.

SFT

[cycloneye]

The latest pic as it gets dark in the area at 5:45 PM EDT. Sandy,can you bring a more lighten pic?

[jinftl]

source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml




source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

[meteorologyman]

Is it just me or is he getting bigger

[sfwx]

Portastorm, yep that may well be happening here as well given you've got a big spread from the recurving GFS at 120hrs to the ECM over western tip of Cuba, its a big difference!

Dean4Storms, exactly everywhere in the region you mention needs to watch this...

I've still got a bad feeling that the T&C are going to take the brunt of a possibly rapidly reorganising cat-3/4, I suppose they are built for hurricanes but even so not sure I'd want to ride out a cat-3/4 there.

It just blows my mind on here how some get bent all out of shape and some start with the declarations of who isn't and who is going to get hit due to one set of model runs on a 3-5 day forecast, incredible.

SO predictable and it certainly gets annoying. One model run and people panic because it shows something different. I can't believe people who frequent this board just don't get it.

Eric

[Myersgirl]

[
I believe Max Mayfield said that a weakness is forecast to develop. The only question is when and where.[/quote]

correct[/quote]

Watched him for the second time, not referring to the current high but the one moving in from the Pacific that will park over Lake Michigan and provide westward steering away from Florida according to local met

[KWT]

All models fill Hanna's weakness very rapidly so thats not going to make any difference.

Hiflyer, I've been talking about this for a while now, I've got a bad feeling for the T&C sadly, I think cat-2 is optimistic sadly at least for the Bahamas anyway, I suspect for the T&C we are looking at the eyewall of a cat-3...

[pojo]

these two AF missions aren't 6hrlys yet.... (0109A & 0409A) all we've been told is to do one alpha pattern...

[jlauderdal]

so is it also advantageous for the keys to be at the 4-day point now, since that far out has a large margin of error as well?

the theory is you want to be at the 5 day point because of NHC's error forecasting that far out, you have to agree there is some merit to the thought of it. Of course you have gustav where that idea didnt workout so well.

excellent i think you captured the stupidity of that logic brilliantly

the point being 5 days out when it points at you, it will shift and then when it shifts again it probably has the highest % chance to shift back over you.

well if it shift backs over you then fine but that rarely happens and if it did happen then the forecasts would be verifying 5 days out and the cone would be incredibly small since the cone is based on 2/3 of the track error from the previous 5 years.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's interesting to note that an extrapolation of the current forward speed implies that the TC will be west-southwest of the NHC's 12 hour forecast point earlier than anticipated. As the subtropical ridge at 500 mb expands west in the wake of Hanna, I would anticipate that Ike will maintain that faster forward speed. Overall, Ike is clearly moving slightly faster than originally anticipated, which would be significant for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas.

GOES visible imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

NHC's forecast track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/204613W_sm.gif

[Sanibel]

Is it just me or is he getting bigger

I think you are just getting a better angle on the beautiful diaphanous outflow veil from the sun setting. Not much shear damage to that outflow.

[stormchaserCP]

the theory is you want to be at the 5 day point because of NHC's error forecasting that far out, you have to agree there is some merit to the thought of it.

I repeat, there is simply no logic to this. Yes, there is a large margin of error, but since there is presumably no significant bias toward either the right or left side of the forecast track, this means the *middle* of the cone is at greatest risk, even at day 5. If it were otherwise, the cone would not be a true proxy of the uncertainty in the track forecast.

I'm emphasizing this point because people need to know how to properly interpret the cone so that they can make plans accordingly.

[KWT]

Is it just me or is he getting bigger

Maybe I'm not sure, it sure looks like it on the Sat imagery right now, I think there is two factors to that and both related possibly to shear easing off. Firstly the NW quadrant seems to have expanded in the last 2-3hrs and also the outflow has really improved again on the eastern side.

[cycloneye]

Is almost dark but you can see the eye more clear than in the past pic a half an hour ago.

[meteorologyman]

Is it just me or is he getting bigger

I think you are just getting a better angle on the beautiful diaphanous outflow veil from the sun setting. Not much shear damage to that outflow.

I hope you're right! the bigger he gets the bigger the impacts if it makes landfall, and the way the eye quickly formed on the satellite makes me fear that T&C could experience CAT4 though I hope my observation is proved wrong

[Bgator]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
Eye is popping out.

[JonathanBelles]

If this does go near the WC of Florida as a strong system, the 2009 Super Bowl may have some problems, as it is in Tampa.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's interesting to note that an extrapolation of the current forward speed implies that the TC will be west-southwest of the NHC's 12 hour forecast point earlier than anticipated. As the subtropical ridge at 500 mb expands west in the wake of Hanna, I would anticipate that Ike will maintain that faster forward speed. Overall, Ike is clearly moving slightly faster than originally anticipated, which would be significant for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas.

GOES visible imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

NHC's forecast track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/204613W_sm.gif

It is also notable that the TC will be moving into the deeper easterlies as it moves under the 250 mb anticyclone and the 500 mb ridge axis expands west. This trend should reduce the NE shear within the next ~24 hours.

I would not be surprised if Ike never weakens below major hurricane status prior to entering the TCI/Bahamas...