ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Indeed Ed conditions aren't quite totally condusive for strengthening yet but by the time it reaches T&C the conditions may well be a lot better for Ike.

Motion in the last 2-3hrs looks 265 but the trak in the last 60-90 mins does seem as wxman57 said more like due west.

[jlauderdal]

do you get overtime?

I'm DoD...there's no such thing

Can't complain though. I've been off the last 2 days...so I've only had to work about 15 hr days from my office at the house.

Did get a break yesterday afternoon...took a nap...until a Col called me on my blackberry and got me up 5 minutes after I had fallen asleep.

well hats off to you and wxman57 for putting in those huge hours during a busy time

[jlauderdal]

Does look better for us in Se fla tonight excluding the keys , still too early fopr an all clear though.

Ike's is going more westerly now. A wobble you think?

Being in the right-front quadrant of an approaching Cat 3-4 hurricane is never good. Ike would only need to slow down just a little or have the high to its north move just a tiny bit faster eastward for SE FL to be slammed. You won't be out of the woods until it passes to your south and keeps going. I wouldn't be surprised if it slows considerably in the FL straights then turns north. Just about anything could happen to produce a SE FL hit.

Ike is going more west in the past hour. Doesn't mean much. But the less south of west it goes, the greater the risk to the SE FL peninsula and Keys.

for sure, i had made a similiar post a few hours ago since sofla could be vulnerable from a direct hit of course, a pass throught the upper middle keys or as it would be running back north after a curve, pleanty of ways for sofla to get big effects or it just keeps right on chugging west to the gulf south of key west

[AtlanticWind]

Lastest Sat pic looks like the eye is popping out , looking like shear must be easing.

[tgenius]

Ike's is going more westerly now. A wobble you think?[/quote]

Being in the right-front quadrant of an approaching Cat 3-4 hurricane is never good. Ike would only need to slow down just a little or have the high to its north move just a tiny bit faster eastward for SE FL to be slammed. You won't be out of the woods until it passes to your south and keeps going. I wouldn't be surprised if it slows considerably in the FL straights then turns north. Just about anything could happen to produce a SE FL hit.

Ike is going more west in the past hour. Doesn't mean much. But the less south of west it goes, the greater the risk to the SE FL peninsula and Keys.[/quote]

for sure, i had made a similiar post a few hours ago since sofla could be vulnerable from a direct hit of course, a pass throught the upper middle keys or as it would be running back north after a curve, pleanty of ways for sofla to get big effects or it just keeps right on chugging west to the gulf south of key west[/quote]

I just plotted my coordinates and I live around 25.66N and 80.43W, so realistically speaking, there are more possibilities for hurricane force conditions (direct or NE quad pass) then not, hence why I will be placing shutters tommorow.

[Weatherboy1]

On the one hand, here in South FL, the model trend is slightly more encouraging -- more models are pointing south and west either over Cuba or through the straits. On the other hand, the cloud field around Ike appears to be re-expanding to the north. In other words, the NE/N shear appears to be letting up ... and that COULD signal a shift back to the W track from a WSW track. The past couple of frames, he is clearly travelling W as opposed to WSW. Have to watch to see if it's just a wobble or something more.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/rb-l.jpg

Dont like the look of this

[maxx9512]

Looking at the water vapor loop it looks to me (amatuer) that a path is being set up for Ike to follow.
It appears to be from just off the west coast of Fl. to just off of the east coast of Fla. I'm I correct that this could be a path ofr Ike to go?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[AtlanticWind]

On the one hand, here in South FL, the model trend is slightly more encouraging -- more models are pointing south and west either over Cuba or through the straits. On the other hand, the cloud field around Ike appears to be re-expanding to the north. In other words, the NE/N shear appears to be letting up ... and that COULD signal a shift back to the W track from a WSW track. The past couple of frames, he is clearly travelling W as opposed to WSW. Have to watch to see if it's just a wobble or something more.

I agree , if this is the start of a more westerly movement Florida becomes more at risk.

[tolakram]

Latest frame of the rainbow loop, it appears Ike is experiencing less shear now.



it hasn't wandered too far from the forecast point and the 'wobble' might be due to strengthening.

[CronkPSU]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

been straddling that 23 degree line almost dead on for the entire loop (7 hours)...possibly a very tiny little bit tad south of due west for that period

[beachlover]

Not -removed-. Tried that with Ivan and Dennis and Gustav and well, it just doesn't work. They go where they want to. BUT I have to keep asking, based on the historical data from 1851 forward, getting into the GOM period is RARE as in never happened with a storm 200 miles from Ike's path Cat 3 to 5. So what's different with Ike? How MUCH different will Ike be. Almost anything short of a recurve is history-making, so what do you do with this?

Yes, anybody in the cone needs to prepare. Remember Charley. My sister in Port Charlotte sure does.

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/rb-l.jpg

Dont like the look of this

Looks much better than earlier.

[gatorcane]

Being in the right-front quadrant of an approaching Cat 3-4 hurricane is never good. Ike would only need to slow down just a little or have the high to its north move just a tiny bit faster eastward for SE FL to be slammed. You won't be out of the woods until it passes to your south and keeps going. I wouldn't be surprised if it slows considerably in the FL straights then turns north. Just about anything could happen to produce a SE FL hit.

Ike is going more west in the past hour. Doesn't mean much. But the less south of west it goes, the greater the risk to the SE FL peninsula and Keys.

I'm really worried about the keys to be honest in this set-up ,even if it does take a slightly more southerly trak close to Cuba theres enough time for Ike to lift up and strike them dead on.

Really there is no ideal set-up now, hit Cuba and your going to get a very severe hit, hits SE Florida and your looking at severe conditions across the region and the keys, goes into the gulf and then its got loads of waters to power up...

Wxman glad to see you back. Keep us updated

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow's models should be more reliable as the information from the RECON is incorporated. And after the NOAA plane investigates the surroundings, we should have a better consensus.

[KWT]

If this westerly motion can hold for another 3hrs or so then it'll be a little to the north of the forecast point. However right now its too early to tell, the eye is sort of in a plusing mode right now where it goes from showing itself to clouding over again.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFDL, HWRF, and intermediate advisory coming within the half hour.

[tolakram]

getting into the GOM period is RARE as in never happened with a storm 200 miles from Ike's path Cat 3 to 5.

Do you know statistics / odds? Overall there's not a lot of data to be comfortable with trends. Statements like this are meaningless because we don't actually know what the odds are, we only know what little we've observed over the years.

Regardless, this thing is days out and people who live in a hurricane zone should be prepared anyway. If the storm approaches you activate your plan and do what you need to do.

In short, there is no basis for your statement, it's not helpful, it's not meaningful, and it's not reliable. Sorry, just tired of reading all this cr..

[CronkPSU]

and the NHC forecast it to be weaker at the next trop point...that looks very unlikely to me right now so the intensity forecast may have to tick up slightly as well if this continues