ATL: IKE Discussion

[stormchazer]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008


IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.




Target appears to be back on the Gulf Central North Coast.....yikes!

[Dean4Storms]

I know I'm speaking for everyone along the north Gulf Coast. We DO NOT NEED THIS AGAIN PERIOD!!!

[El Nino]

Hmmm I really think it will pass over Cuba, and this should weaken it. Now, although it's a bit soon, we should begin to think about where it will make his final landfall in the GOM, and people of NO may eventually see their nightmare continue.

[shah8]

Well, there *IS* Key West to be concerned about, ya know...

Does look like NHC is doubful that Ike is visiting Guantanamo Bay.

[Sabanic]

I know I'm speaking for everyone along the north Gulf Coast. We DO NOT NEED THIS AGAIN PERIOD!!!

No doubt Dean, no doubt.

[StJoe]

WOW, even NHC can make typo's:

MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.

Maybe the models are off as well!

[Harry Cane]

A bit of light "Ike" humour

[gatorcane]

If you look at this loop when the NHC originally had the cone straight west, well I guess they could have kept it that way:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Notice how its shift left after shift left

[Patrick99]

Yeah, I'd say it's pretty much cut and dry. That's several consecutive shifts, with more probably coming. I had a hard time believing Ike would get that far SW, but apparently it looks like that will be the case.

I wasn't relishing a Cat. 4 over my head, but I have to admit, this is kind of anticlimactic.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Yeah, I'd say it's pretty much cut and dry. That's several consecutive shifts, with more probably coming. I had a hard time believing Ike would get that far SW, but apparently it looks like that will be the case.

I wasn't relishing a Cat. 4 over my head, but I have to admit, this is kind of anticlimactic.

not doubt the complacency factor is going to increase in South Florida assuming it does not affect South FL that much. There was quite a bit of hype from the media...

of course the NHC forecasts were not hyped.

anyway, back to Ike.

[stormy1970al]

Quote from Gatorcane: "As I said in my earlier posts, I get the feeling the Southern FL peninsula may just get out of the cone by this weekend sometime with these huge shifts left in the track..."

You may be right. Check out Derk Ortts newest forecast. It is a HUGE shift south, but mostly west. He looks to have it headed to the western panhandle/Ala. I still think S. FL is definitely not out of the woods, but it certainly looking better and better. These are the biggest single day shifts I've seen in the models and forecasts in one day for any storm. This morning I was thinking it would miss us to the east to as early as this afternoon seeing model evidence that it'd miss us to the south. Talk about a HUUGE shift in a very short time.

Now I am worried! Derek Ortt forecast has my hometown in the X. Eek! Now I know that is many days out but I trust Derek.

[Evil Jeremy]

While I am less worried about Ike now, I am not going to let my guard down. If the models are still showing this after the recon data is put in in the upcoming run, and after the Sunday G4 data is put into the models, then I will breathe a sign of relief.

[Sanibel]

The illusion west was the CDO top shearing over the true surface eye in a way that left a little opening in the NW part of the eye circle making it look like a little eye moving west. The true eye was a nice bigger circle more to the SE of what they were seeing and moving 255*-260*

Now I'm waiting for climatology to kick in and curve Ike back east under a weakness.

[ColdFusion]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

[cheezyWXguy]

The illusion west was the CDO top shearing over the true surface eye in a way that left a little opening in the NW part of the eye circle making it look like a little eye moving west. The true eye was a nice bigger circle more to the SE of what they were seeing and moving 255*-260*

Now I'm waiting for climatology to kick in and curve Ike back east under a weakness.

because everyone knows that climatology is a physical factor that can affect a storm in the present...

[gatorcane]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

What's unbelievable is the Gustav did not do as much damage as it could have in NOLA....residents breath a sigh of relief than CAT 4 Ike shows up to finish things off.

Obviously Ike hitting NOLA is not certain but has become a possibility looking at model trends.

[RattleMan]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

An "XTRP" of the last two forecast points takes it near NOLA, indeed

EDIT: I originally used the 8pm track, but the 11pm is still mighty close

[Blown Away]

I'm anxious to see the next model runs to see if the continue to see such an extreme SW track.

[ColdFusion]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

An "XTRP" of the last two forecast points takes it over NOLA, indeed

Of course, this time, very few would leave.