ATL: IKE Discussion

[southerngale]

From first Vortex Data Message.Lowest Pressure 953 mbs.

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:12Z

Luis, what do you think 85% rule for surface winds or 90% ?

I'm not Luis, but overnight, Derek Ortt said the reduction factor was .9, if that helps.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The NCH issues statements based on what their data supports. If their data says CAT 2 then that's what they'll say it is.

Not to slag NHC, but that was off a Dvorak (satellite) estimate, and recon was on the way. I've seen in their discos that they keep a storm's official intensity at a conservative value (sometimes with phrase "and that may be generous") when recon is on the way, just so they don't whipsaw the public with advisories.

Dr Sheet's, in his book mentioned when recon couldn't close a circulation on Tropical Storm Andrew, and they held it as a TS rather than call it a wave just for that very reason, to avoid whipswaw advisories.

This doesn't question their met skills. I am an amateur, but it is a known fact Dvorak isn't precise, and can be a S.S Category off, so I can question the judgement. Not the science, the judgement.

[cycloneye]

From first Vortex Data Message.Lowest Pressure 953 mbs.

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:12Z

Luis, what do you think 85% rule for surface winds or 90% ?

90%.

[KWT]

I'm expecting a new advisory again very soon based on the vortex message of 125kts, with winds at 110kts...I'm willing t bet theres a few red faces at the NHC right now.
As you sday Ed, thats not to take away from the NHC, they ar epros and everyone makes the odd slip, just be thankful its a little bit away from any land yet.

[dhweather]

125 kt FL = about 110 kt at the surface, with a factor around 87% for its level.

Well, that qualifies for a high-end cat 3.

I'm amazed how well the inner core of Ike has survived from the northerly shear - Hannah did not fare so well, despite numerous flareups and attempts to strengthen.

[tracyswfla]

Let's give our support to the NHC. They are on the ground doing the best they can with satellite data. That is why we have recon! Weather by far is not an exact science!

[cpdaman]

at the sake of wobble watching i notice a SW wobble at 15:15 utc

[dhweather]

From first Vortex Data Message.Lowest Pressure 953 mbs.

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:12Z

Luis, what do you think 85% rule for surface winds or 90% ?

90%.

Well, that equates to 113.9274 mph, so that rounds to 115 MPH (cat 3) or down to 110 MPH (cat 2)

I suspect the NHC will wait until at least 2PM to change the intensity, if it is warrented.

[chris_fit]

Why are they doing circles right now?

[zeusman]

Some of the models show Ike skipping a long the north coast of Cuba. This would be a solution that would not favor much weakening. If memory serves George traverse the entire north coastlin, half on land, half off, and still managed to hold his own or weaken only 5 or 10 mph. Goerge was weird storm though...managed to hit just about every island in the Greater Antilles and still emerged whistling dixie, only to drive the largest surge I have ever heard of in a cat 2 into East Jackson County Mississippi.

Agree with your comments regarding weakening or lack thereof if it skims along the coast. In general it is my perception that there is a misconception about how mountainous the cuban terrain is. It is not mountainous at all except for the south eastern most portion of the country. Most of the area the storm is currently progged to traverse is actually low lands. You will lose energy from frictional effects and a decrease in energy from latent heat of condensation however there are not several thousand feet high mountains in the center of cuba to rip the storm apart vertically.

Caveat: Met degree but not a tropical weather expert... just my perception of Cuban terrain

[shah8]

for the sake of wobble wars:
I don't, in comparison to the 14:45 UTC image.

[Skyhawk]

Getting far from eye plane found 108kts at flight level.[/Quote]

Lowest pressure at 21 deg 52 min N 68 deg 37 min W
108kt at 22 deg 01 min N 68 deg 46 min W

so 9 min N and 9 min W, which is about 13 or 14 nm NW. I won't call that far from the eye.

[dhweather]

From first Vortex Data Message.Lowest Pressure 953 mbs.

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:12Z

Luis, what do you think 85% rule for surface winds or 90% ?

I'm not Luis, but overnight, Derek Ortt said the reduction factor was .9, if that helps.

Thank you and Luis - I was thinking .9 was right for the location.

[cpdaman]

From first Vortex Data Message.Lowest Pressure 953 mbs.

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:12Z

Luis, what do you think 85% rule for surface winds or 90% ?

90%.

Well, that equates to 113.9274 mph, so that rounds to 115 MPH (cat 3) or down to 110 MPH (cat 2)

I suspect the NHC will wait until at least 2PM to change the intensity, if it is warrented.[/quote]

DHweather is that funny math your doing? the 90% should be of 125 KNOTS not mph so your answer of 113.9274 should be KNOTS, or 90% of 143.8 mph right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My eyeball, barely South of due West last 3 hours. Lost about .1 latitude for about .7 longitude.


Recon should give us a better feel, although as WxMan57 noted in Gustav discussions, fixing a motion from just two center fixes can be a little imprecise as the center fix can be a little imprecise, and one needs to follow more than 2 center fixes even from recon to get the general motion.

[KWT]

Yep about 0.9 as it was found in the eyewall I believe, even if it was less the reduction would still probably support a major hurricane rather then a 2!

[cheezyWXguy]

Luis, what do you think 85% rule for surface winds or 90% ?

90%.

Well, that equates to 113.9274 mph, so that rounds to 115 MPH (cat 3) or down to 110 MPH (cat 2)

I suspect the NHC will wait until at least 2PM to change the intensity, if it is warrented.

DHweather is that funny math your doing? the 90% should be of 125 KNOTS not mph so your answer of 113.9274 should be KNOTS, or 90% of 143.8 mph right.[/quote]
yeah i did 143.8x.9 and got 129.42, suggesting the advisory intensity should be at least 110kt.

[Sanibel]

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[tolakram]

East and a little south of where is was supposed to be at 11AM.

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

seems to me that
Ike is on a west heading for 2-3 hours now zooming on the visble riding 22