ATL: IKE Discussion

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Recon CONFIRMS it is WSW, not west, not WNW.

How do you figure that? The last two fixes were 21.32 minutes north and 23.31 minutes north. Hardly WSW.

Can you all not see the pictures I'm posting here and in the recon obs thread? Current center is south and west of the previous.

I go by the positions on the vortex messages.

[AJC3]

I measure a 3-hr movement of 272.8 deg. at 10.1 kts. 6hr movement 265.4 deg. at 10.5 kts.

Yup, Chris...it'll be interesting to see if it holds though. This morning, from about 6AM to 10AM, I had a 4 hour motion of about 268 before it flopped back to around 255-260 from then on until I left work (3 PM).

[tolakram]

I go by the positions on the vortex messages.

Waiting for the latest vortex, there hasn't been one for this pass yet.

[cpdaman]

Recon CONFIRMS it is WSW, not west, not WNW.

How do you figure that? The last two fixes were 21.32 minutes north and 23.31 minutes north. Hardly WSW.

Can you all not see the pictures I'm posting here and in the recon obs thread? Current center is south and west of the previous.

in fairness with hanna wobble watchers were way ahead of the NHC when she took her due south motion toward the DR and when she took her West wobble toward FL east coast friday morning

[CourierPR]

Gee, it sure looks to be a little WNW of the previous forecast point and moving west.

[robbielyn]

I measure a 3-hr movement of 272.8 deg. at 10.1 kts. 6hr movement 265.4 deg. at 10.5 kts.

Yup, Chris...it'll be interesting to see if it holds though. This morning, from about 6AM to 10AM, I had a 4 hour motion of about 268 before it flopped back to around 255-260 from then on until I left work (3 PM).

AJC3 so what direction would that be?

[shah8]

the HWRF 12z had some increases in latitude due to intensification jerks.

[tolakram]

For the compass challenged like me.

[miamijaaz]

the HWRF 12z had some increases in latitude due to intensification jerks.

[HURAKAN]

[robbielyn]

Can you all not see the pictures I'm posting here and in the recon obs thread? Current center is south and west of the previous.[/quote]

in fairness with hanna wobble watchers were way ahead of the NHC when she took her due south motion toward the DR and when she took her West wobble toward FL east coast friday morning[/quote]

Thank you and I go by my eyes. It was indeed going wsw clear as day and now going west clear as day it may go wsw again but right this minute and the last two 1/2 hours its been west.

[MiamiensisWx]

Why is it impossible for people to trust the accurate, verifiable data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?

I'm befuddled...

[AJC3]

I measure a 3-hr movement of 272.8 deg. at 10.1 kts. 6hr movement 265.4 deg. at 10.5 kts.

Yup, Chris...it'll be interesting to see if it holds though. This morning, from about 6AM to 10AM, I had a 4 hour motion of about 268 before it flopped back to around 255-260 from then on until I left work (3 PM).

AJC3 so what direction would that be?

Basically, a heading of 270 is due west. A true WSW is heading is 247.5...although in NHC-speak (rounded to the nearest 5 degrees) it's anything between and 240 and 255.

I pilfered this from here earlier this season...

[caneman]

Well it looks like the models were overdoing the trough swinging down. Hopefully the NOAAjet will get a better handle tonight and Florida can breathe a sigh of relief by tomorrow. We've been in the cone far to much this summer. Just hope it doesn't hit NOLA.

[Weatherfreak000]

Why is it impossible for people to trust the data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?

I'm befuddled...

Lol...me too.

[tolakram]

Why is it impossible for people to trust the data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?

I'm not sure, but I'd really like to know. I can only present so much evidence.

[Stormcenter]

If you plot the NHC forecast points on this loop in sure looks like Ike is tracking
a little north.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Why is it impossible for people to trust the data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?

I'm befuddled...

The last vortex fix I saw was 21.31 minutes west which equates to 21.5 a p[osition almost due west of the previous fix which was 21.32 minutes west. Which data are you using?

[Bunkertor]

NOAA-Image of the day

[Windy]

Some serious dry air working it's way into the storm.