ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sihara]

be interesting to see if the models shift the track over any more north....not only would that mean the center closer to the keys...but it could mean a track over cuba that is alot closer to the north coast....or maybe just offshore if it really shifted....then we are talking about a storm that won't weaken as much or at all....really a lose-lose situation for the keys if that happens

But isn't that going to be a problem for people in the keys - as I understand it, they really need to decide today whether or not to evacuate, right? Because I think they're being told that by mid-Monday, winds could impede traffic - plus the mandatory evac of the middle keys starts in 15 min. So they could be looking at a situation that doesn't appear to be as bad and making their judgement based on that. If, later today, the track does shift north, people there could be caught off-guard, you think?

[mpic]

Someone said yesterday that the power will be turned off during the storm on the T/C islands and that must have happened because the webcam is stuck at 1136 GMT. Would love to get a live shot of this thing, but toatlly understand why they do.

Amazing of how this dejavus 2005...I wonder, IF Ike makes a beeline for Houston, if Ike will go east in the last 24-48 hours before landfall like Rita did. This will be extremely important in terms of evacs. I'm really afraid that after the Rita shift, evac nightmare and now Gustav not hitting NOLA dead on that many will not evac and that would really cause a lot of devastation. I live in a mobile, so question I will go, but my Sis won't budge. She thinks I'm a fool.

This is why it is so important to watch the cone and not the eye.

[KWT]

Yep certainly the motion with this one makes a big difference, if it goes WNW a little sooner it only brushes the coast, whilst if it takes as long as the NHC states it obviously takes the full blow of land. Its probably the difference between this being a hurricane in the gulf straight away or exting a TS IMO.

Can't believe we are looking at yet another gulf hurricane so soon!

[jinftl]

RIght...today is the day to leave the keys....i am mainly referring to what conditions will be received not only in the keys...but even for south florida.


People need to leave the Keys today. The question about track and strength over Cuba goes more to what will the residents find has taken place in their absence from the Keys...a close brush or a major cane and resulting surge. For mainland south florida, it could mean the difference between a few gusty squalls and a period of tropical storm conditions.

be interesting to see if the models shift the track over any more north....not only would that mean the center closer to the keys...but it could mean a track over cuba that is alot closer to the north coast....or maybe just offshore if it really shifted....then we are talking about a storm that won't weaken as much or at all....really a lose-lose situation for the keys if that happens

But isn't that going to be a problem for people in the keys - as I understand it, they really need to decide today whether or not to evacuate, right? Because I think they're being told that by mid-Monday, winds could impede traffic - plus the mandatory evac of the middle keys starts in 15 min. So they could be looking at a situation that doesn't appear to be as bad and making their judgement based on that. If, later today, the track does shift north, people there could be caught off-guard, you think?

[KWT]

I should also think that Great Inagua will probably prevent any strengthen as the eye looks like its going to go right over the island. Whilst its not massive it will take a couple of hours for Ike to hitch over.

[jinftl]

What is a bit eye-opening is the scenario...and this is not being forecast at all...but more of a 'what if'...a track along the northern edge of the 3 day cone in the latest advisory would not only bring a hurricane into the keys that never went over land enough to weaken much in cuba...but all in reality, a landfall in the middle or upper keys means possible hurricane conditions at least in parts of mainland south florida..mainly miami and south.

again...not forecasted or being pushed...but goes to show, this is not completely a done deal as far as writing ike off yet for residents of mainland south florida.

Yep certainly the motion with this one makes a big difference, if it goes WNW a little sooner it only brushes the coast, whilst if it takes as long as the NHC states it obviously takes the full blow of land. Its probably the difference between this being a hurricane in the gulf straight away or exting a TS IMO.

Can't believe we are looking at yet another gulf hurricane so soon!

[Sihara]

I should also think that Great Inagua will probably prevent any strengthen as the eye looks like its going to go right over the island. Whilst its not massive it will take a couple of hours for Ike to hitch over.

KWT, please excuse me if this is a stupid question, but when the eye goes over Inagua, could that cause a very slight track shift, or would that have nothing to do with its forward motion?


On another note: it really boggles the mind what the people in the islands go through when the major ones hit, it has to be absolute hell.

[rainman31]

can someone give me the link to the spaghetti models, please.

[KWT]

Sihara, I don't think the islands are really large enough to cuase a wobble in track but who knows for certain?

[jinftl]

try this one....slight shift north that nhc made is reflected by models...not huge...but tracks hug coast of cuba....that could be significant as far as weakening implications over land


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad

can someone give me the link to the spaghetti models, please.

[KWT]

jinftl, certainly needs very close watching indeed just in case it does stick close to the coast or even stays offshore...

Landfall in Great Inagua should happen fairly soon.

[Sihara]

Jinftl - that's what I was thinking, looking at it this morning. Could really see a track along the northern coast of Cuba instead of inland, and in that case, the storm wouldn't really weaken.


KWT, thanks - I didn't think they would but just didn't know. The atmospheric features, I realize, are what steer a storm - if land interaction can weaken it, I thought that might affect how it interacts with the atmosphere. But as you said, the islands aren't that large.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Off topic

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=103071

There is a nice distrabance forming in the BOC. A nice system to watch while Ike is getting the living heck kicked out of it by Cuba over the next 24-30 hours.

As for IKE, Reds are starting to wrap, so maybe some strengthing???

[KWT]

Well recon keeps finding slightly lower pressures each pass Matt, now extrap pressure down to 944mbs which have to admit is quite impressive.

[jinftl]

i have to say i was not expecting the 3 day cone track to be that far north well into the keys....there is a wide range of potential impacts on the keys the southern peninsula if the storm tracks on the south side or the north side of that cone.

Perhaps it was my having decided last night this is a non-event for south florida, it was a reminder that however remote the probability...it is not a done deal yet.

A track more over the water and less over cuba may have implications as far as potential watches and warnings for the keys and even south fla....even if nhc views them as precautionary. Earlier i would have said i expect a hurricane watch for the keys and no watches for mainland south fl. The possibility of at least a ts watch exists for south fl...a stronger storm and closer storm would determine the need for that.

Not forecasting a much bigger event in south florida at all....but i suppose that with a storm in that location, it would be crazy to let our guard down yet....once it has passed our longitude would be a comfortable point though! i think...lol

jinftl, certainly needs very close watching indeed just in case it does stick close to the coast or even stays offshore...

Landfall in Great Inagua should happen fairly soon.

[mpic]

Something I'd like explained while the board isn't so busy. Why is the right side always the dirty side? For instance, someone said the Turks will be on the dirty side. If they are hit dead on, wouldn't every side be dirty since there is water all around? I thought what made the right side dirty was the cane picking up water...all sides will pickup water. Or do I have it all wrong? Trying to learn.

[KWT]

jinftl, well thats why everyone has to pay attention to the cone, obviously whilost south Florida is out of the cone if it took a more northerly side the conditions in Florida would be worse no doubt.

[TheEuropean]

Well recon keeps finding slightly lower pressures each pass Matt, now extrap pressure down to 944mbs which have to admit is quite impressive.

But they find slightly lower winds so far. Is this really a CAT-4 at this time?

[hiflyer]

I would suspect that some of this model 'shift' may be related to the G4 flight yesterday....takes awhile to get the data in. More flts today

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

[jinftl]

The eye went over the Turks & Caicos according to the NHC...a 114 mph sustained wind was being reported at an automated weather station and then it stopped reporting. The T&C got every bit of what Ike had to offer....direct hit.

Something I'd like explained while the board isn't so busy. Why is the right side always the dirty side? For instance, someone said the Turks will be on the dirty side. If they are hit dead on, wouldn't every side be dirty since there is water all around? I thought what made the right side dirty was the cane picking up water...all sides will pickup water. Or do I have it all wrong? Trying to learn.