Wx_Warrior wrote:Ah well crap. Woke up and they are still pointed at me...
Yep, time to think about doing some initial preps i think. I guess i am gona pick up some stuff this afternoon. If its the same in the morn it's gonna get stupid in SE Texas
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Wx_Warrior wrote:Ah well crap. Woke up and they are still pointed at me...
teal61 wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:Ah well crap. Woke up and they are still pointed at me...
Yep, time to think about doing some initial preps i think. I guess i am gona pick up some stuff this afternoon. If its the same in the morn it's gonna get stupid in SE Texas
Air Force Met wrote:dwg71 wrote:still 5+ days from Landfall. Models will move again, left, right, fast, slow, who knows.
Yep...I figure I've got about two more days of agonizing before we get a good clue.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
838 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 12 2008 - 12Z MON SEP 15 2008
UPDATED PRELIMS LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION THRU DAY 5
SAT AND INCORPORATE THE ECMWF MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7. DIVING SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SEWD THRU MT WED IS CARRIED AS A DEEPER STRONGER SLOWER
SHORTWAVE BY 00Z GFS REACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES SAT. THIS 00Z
RUN IS AN OUTLIER AMONGST ALL OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NOGAPS/06Z GFS/ENSEMBLE MEANS OF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF IN AS THAT ALL THESE OTHER MODELS DROP ENERGY SWD FROM THE
BASE OF THIS TROF INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REACHING THE PLAINS
SUN. NRN PORTION OF THE TROF EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES IS THUS
MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS TAKING THE SHORTWAVE OFF THE NE COAST
SAT. FOLLOWING MORE AMPLIFIED DIGGING SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND BETTER AGREED
UPON ON AMPLITIUDE AND TIMING THAN THE PREDECESSOR BUT SOME
PHASING PROBLEMS EXIST AS GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS/UKMET/06Z GFS
PHASE THIS WITH THE LEFT BEHIND MORE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PREFERENCE DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO BLEND
IN THE ECMWF ENS MEAN PHASED SOLUTION WITH THE SEPERATED ECMWF FOR
DAYS 6 AND 7 SUN/MON.
HOW AND WHEN HURCN IKE IS PICKED UP BY THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
APPEARS TO BE TOTALLY INDEPENDENT ON ITS TRACK AND TIMING WHICH IS
MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAT YESTERDAY. AN OVERALL TREND TOWARDS THE
RIGHT BY HURCN MODELS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT SOME LEAVING IT
COMPLETELY BEHIND TO DRIFT IN THE NRN GULF. DAYS 6 AND 7 ARE AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM DAY 5 TPC FCST NEAR 29N/93W. IF THIS POSITION
IS CORRECT OUR PREFERENCE IN THE MID LATITUDE FLOW OF ECMWF/ECMWF
MEAN WOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE PICKED UP AND BEGIN
TO EXIT NEWD INTO NRN LA AND UP THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUN AND
EXTRATROPICAL RUNNING UP THE OH VALLEY MON. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
ROSENSTEIN
Sanibel wrote:GFDL uncanny in south of Cuba track.
To me this says watch GFDL for final track in two days or so. Which means NHC should be fairly accurate (Again).
dwg71 wrote:HPC sees a turn towards the north at end of track. I still think SW to Central LA will be end game, just my opinion.
mattpetre wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I won't do this too often, but I'm actually surprised at how close my 10+ day path is matching the actual path at this point. My map also includes one NHC cone from a few days ago. I'm still hoping that my path can't actually come to fruition, but synoptics seem to be more and more in favor of something close. Ugh, another very long week of waiting and seeing.
mattpetre wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I won't do this too often, but I'm actually surprised at how close my 10+ day path is matching the actual path at this point. My map also includes one NHC cone from a few days ago. I'm still hoping that my path can't actually come to fruition, but synoptics seem to be more and more in favor of something close. Ugh, another very long week of waiting and seeing.
SMNederlandTX wrote:It looks to me if it stays on it's current track it will make landfall somewhere near Galveston, maybe? If that is the case....SETX would be on the east side of the storm, which is the worst side of the storm to be on, right? I asked something similar before, I don't think anyone replied though....sorry if I missed it.
SMNederlandTX wrote:It looks to me if it stays on it's current track it will make landfall somewhere near Galveston, maybe? If that is the case....SETX would be on the east side of the storm, which is the worst side of the storm to be on, right? I asked something similar before, I don't think anyone replied though....sorry if I missed it.
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