ATL: IKE Discussion

[beachlover]

The map of the ridge a few pages back does seem to show a pretty solid setup. The question I have, I know from what I have read here that stronger storms want to pull north faster (at least I think I have that right). So if Ike stays south of Cuba, which appears to be possible at this point, and maintains a better core and more strength, what would typically happen? (and not sure "typical" even covers it) Will the ridge trump the stronger storm, will the stronger storm trump the ridge or none of the above? Trying to understand how these variables will affect the steering of the storm should they play out. Thanks for any education you guys can give me. Although I grew up in Florida, I still have huge amounts to learn about this stuff!

[Windy]

I think the further south, the longer it takes until landfall which will only make it landfall further east, and the short time over cuba makes it stronger and heads more poleward, I believe landfall in SE LA, and into MS, AL is no longer out of possibility, especially if it slows more and spends more time down south and allows the high to weaken and/or move off. What so people tink of this possibility. This is just my own non-met thought process. Although from the stale hot air we have in place here in NGC, that high does not seem to be weakening.

It is not weakening, and is not forecast to begin weakening until Wednesday. That's when we are supposed to get the return of Showers & Thunderstorms. All the things you mention though do make sense. My point is that if you look at the NHC's forecast track 24 hours ago, Ike is not following it. That's 24 hours. What a difference 96 - 144 could make.

Our local Met here in PC mentioned last night that it was not out of the realm of possibility that Ike would go a bit farther south and west than forecasted by the NHC...by mid week the High is supposed to become suppressed and it may cause Ike to slow down considerably in the Gulf...if he is still in the Gulf on Friday or Saturday then the next trough sweeping down from the NW would be strong enough to shunt Ike NEwd towards Miss ro Alabama this weekend...

I'm not in any way stating that this is what I think will happen...merely throwing out what one of our local mets offered up last night as a possible scenario...

One of the last GFS models actually went with this solution, though it was shoving it into the FL panhandle on day 8 or 9 -- which is way too far out to be reliable.

[smw1981]

FWIW I'm not trying to argue with anyone. I'm just trying to point out a few things such as using 120-hour probabilties when a storm is forecasted to still be over open water to justify where it might track is not using the data how it should be used. I'm also trying to point out (as some pro mets have also pointed out), the track is pretty straightforward. There is a steering ridge in place. Ike isn't going to plow straight into a ridge. I've been around long enough to know when a 5-day forecast could swing 500 miles or when it should pretty much hold. Yes, nothing is "set in stone" in the tropics, but thinking the track of Ike may swing 500 miles right from Houston to Mobile 'aint gonna happen at this point.[/quote]

Hey Jason...Ike was also supposed to travel through the length of Cuba, but he didn't. That track should have been straightforward too, but it wasn't. They do what they want to do. Do I think it will hit between MGC and the Panhandle..probably not. But I think there is always a chance until it makes landfall (albeit a small chance )...

[AJC3]

I think we do have something of a battle on right now between the inner core and the outer eyewall, butr the outer eyewall can't complete it seems because there is land which allowing the inner eyewall to hold.

Still holding due west!

There is precedence for a protracted EWRC this season. I forget which storm it was, but IIRC it went through a lengthy (three, perhaps four day) EWRC that may have never really completed. Someone feel free to refresh my memory.

[Sanibel]

First touch of WNW 273*.

You can almost see the core sense itself hitting water like it is saying "uh, water"?

[zaqxsw75050]

I think we do have something of a battle on right now between the inner core and the outer eyewall, butr the outer eyewall can't complete it seems because there is land which allowing the inner eyewall to hold.

Still holding due west!

There is precedence for a protracted EWRC this season. I forget which storm it was, but IIRC it went through a lengthy (three, perhaps four day) EWRC that may have never really completed. Someone feel free to refresh my memory.

Bertha?

[tailgater]

I'm sorry if this has been discussed before but are some of the Pro mets on here thinking that this could rival Katrina in storm surge and if so do they it will be a problem if Ike stays on his present forecasted course. The reason I ask is because the water levels are already high from the surge of Gus and rainfall of the rivers that feed into the basin of lakes Maurepas and Pontchartrain.
Thanks in advance

Ps Please NO more pics of Dr. Frank

[dwg71]

UKMET further south, Corpus. The trend continues..

[KWT]

I think we do have something of a battle on right now between the inner core and the outer eyewall, butr the outer eyewall can't complete it seems because there is land which allowing the inner eyewall to hold.

Still holding due west!

There is precedence for a protracted EWRC this season. I forget which storm it was, but IIRC it went through a lengthy (three, perhaps four day) EWRC that may have never really completed. Someone feel free to refresh my memory.

I can't think what it is but I remember systems that sort of had one non stop battle between the inner and outer eyewall. I think Cuba is probably preventing any outer eyewall becoming dominant and I guess that will stop strengthening till this out in the wide open gulf.

Not going to matter because its going to have plenty of time to really develop into a beast.

[smw1981]

I don't want to argue this point, but I do want to explain something: Computer technology has evolved so much even in just the past few years that what may have happened a couple of years ago is really no longer relevant. Computing power has increased so much and is continuing to do so, and therefore, every year, the amount of data that they're able to analyze on a timely basis grows and grows. As a result, the track forecasts have and will only get more and more accurate each year. This year and last, NHC seems to be doing a great job with the short term forecasts, and at some point when the technology is there, I'm confident they'll be able to extend the accuracy of their forecasting ability to a greater period of time than just three days. What is hard for most people to comprehend is the sheer amount of data that has to go into these systems to provide any kind of dependable result, and how long it takes to process these massive amounts of data on a timely basis. Many of us like to complain, but the reality is that we're very lucky we even have the hurricane forecasts we do today. We really can't say that what happened a few years ago when they missed this or that track is even in the same ballpark as what they are able to do today.[/quote]

I actually do listen to the NHC track for the most part, but I do want to put out there that the NHC short term tracks with Hanna and Ike have both been off. With Hanna, they had her going northwest, and she went southeast lol, and that was with a 6-12 hour forecast...

[Sanibel]

Track arc should be bottoming out. You can only get so much out of a High that is no longer plunging.

[Sanibel]

Track arc should be bottoming out. You can only get so much out of a High that is no longer plunging.

[GoldenTriangle]

"I don't want to argue this point, but I do want to explain something: Computer technology has evolved so much even in just the past few years that what may have happened a couple of years ago is really no longer relevant. Computing power has increased so much and is continuing to do so, and therefore, every year, the amount of data that they're able to analyze on a timely basis grows and grows. As a result, the track forecasts have and will only get more and more accurate each year. This year and last, NHC seems to be doing a great job with the short term forecasts, and at some point when the technology is there, I'm confident they'll be able to extend the accuracy of their forecasting ability to a greater period of time than just three days. What is hard for most people to comprehend is the sheer amount of data that has to go into these systems to provide any kind of dependable result, and how long it takes to process these massive amounts of data on a timely basis. Many of us like to complain, but the reality is that we're very lucky we even have the hurricane forecasts we do today. We really can't say that what happened a few years ago when they missed this or that track is even in the same ballpark as what they are able to do today."

Sir, I'm sure you are correct, however, as an uneducated and uninformed dumbo I still reserve the right to place my faith in the weather reports from the weather expect who I find to be most accurate.....

Maybe it all depends upon who is comprehending what...if the Local ProMet is closer to accuracy than the NHC then I'll trust that person...I really don't care if he uses his big toe to forecast. .

What comes out of a computer is only as accurate as what goes into one.

[Houstonia]

Not sure if it's been mentioned here yet or not but TX is currently in their H-120 mode for emergency response.

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 708%20(GOV).pdf

Nice to see that even the emergency response coordinators have a sense of humor (that's what gets us through the tough times...) Notice all the mentions of StrIKE in the document

I cant read your link. I figured we were in H-120 mode, all the of the freeway signs say keep your gas tanks full and stuff.

Better link here: http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrepindex.htm and yes... the freeway signs are saying keep your gas tanks full...

[KWT]

Agreed Sanibel, I'm currently seeing around 275, inner structure of Ike looks a little confused at the moment in that there is deep convection around what was the former outer eyewall that was forming but there is a lot left of the inner eyewall as well.

Recon will be interesting to see what sort of state Ike's in.

[BigB0882]

UKMET further south, Corpus. The trend continues..

I'm liking this trend. (Sorry, folks in Corpus.)

[Steve]

>>THE MAN. HE ROCKS!!!!

I didn't like when Dr. Frank ran or was the chief spokesperson for the NHC. It was way more politics than science. He'd come on local news whenever we were on a track (bizarre tracks that always pointed to New Orleans at some point). He admitted several times to trumping up the threat so people would pay attention. And while that's all well and good, I like tracks based more on science than alarm. Glad we've moved beyond those days under the last and current regimes. He's still a great weatherman and all, no knock on him for that.

>>...what would typically happen?...

I think you can throw that baby out with the bathwater as "typically" never quite applies the way we think it will. It all depends on surrounding, enivormental atmospheric features. There are some general rules of thumb - as you alluded to - but nothing is set in stone ever when it comes to tropical systems and how they'll act/react to external features such as adjacent weather, landmasses, troughs hundreds of miles north or whatever. You can be reasonably assured that a storm isn't going to blast through a surface or stacked high pressure to its north though they might budge and butt up against one another. You have to see how it plays off. We've all seen "recurve near Alabama" with a trough situated down to the Gulf only to see the trough wash out. And we've seen tracks we thought were solid and sound change overnight. 5 days out is a long time in tropical weather IMHO.

Steve

[MBryant]

"I don't want to argue this point, but I do want to explain something: Computer technology has evolved so much even in just the past few years that what may have happened a couple of years ago is really no longer relevant. Computing power has increased so much and is continuing to do so, and therefore, every year, the amount of data that they're able to analyze on a timely basis grows and grows. As a result, the track forecasts have and will only get more and more accurate each year. This year and last, NHC seems to be doing a great job with the short term forecasts, and at some point when the technology is there, I'm confident they'll be able to extend the accuracy of their forecasting ability to a greater period of time than just three days. What is hard for most people to comprehend is the sheer amount of data that has to go into these systems to provide any kind of dependable result, and how long it takes to process these massive amounts of data on a timely basis. Many of us like to complain, but the reality is that we're very lucky we even have the hurricane forecasts we do today. We really can't say that what happened a few years ago when they missed this or that track is even in the same ballpark as what they are able to do today."

My concern with modelers is that they might forget that faster and more complex calculations just get you the wrong answer faster if you don't get the input's right. Computers are a tool, not a solution.

[wxman57]

I'm sorry if this has been discussed before but are some of the Pro mets on here thinking that this could rival Katrina in storm surge and if so do they it will be a problem if Ike stays on his present forecasted course. The reason I ask is because the water levels are already high from the surge of Gus and rainfall of the rivers that feed into the basin of lakes Maurepas and Pontchartrain.
Thanks in advance

Ps Please NO more pics of Dr. Frank

Even if Ike should get as big as Katrina (unlikely), the surge on the upper TX coast would be about 1/2 that of Katrina because the upper TX coast isn't as surge-prone (except for Galveston Bay). farther down the coast, the surge would be even lower due to deeper water just offshore.

[KWT]

Yep some models are trending south, looking increasingly likely this will be a Texas hit, will be interesting to see whether this goes so far west even Mexico gets into the threat zone, its possible?