ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Wx_Warrior · #2961 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:12 pm

Trough pick up apparently...Yikes...Don't look good my fellow Texans.

mattpetre · #2962 Postby **mattpetre** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:13 pm

dogblues64 wrote:To be honest.. all the mapping doesn't mean a whole lot.. we are feeling almost the winds already of Gustav.. put that in your models.. LOL! just kidding guys.. But, really, we feel like a nother part of the world and you guys are confirming it!

Feeling you dogblues64, but I do think you might have more response about current conditions and current track issues on the discussion thread. I'd love to see some posts about what you are experiencing wind and surge wise over there. I think people in here are looking at models mostly beyond Cuba because they are in pretty good agreement until then at least.

Please give us some reports in the discussions thread though. How high are the winds where you are right now?

ronjon · #2963 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:13 pm

Of note on the Euro 500 mb pattern - a strong trough migrates from the great basin to the southern plains from 120 to 144 hrs (5-6 days) and lifts the storm north off the Tx coast. I don't have to tell everyone that timing will be a big issue here.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090812!!/

dogblues64 · #2964 Postby **dogblues64** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:13 pm

The Model has shifted to the East... LMAO.. Key West

Don't forget us guys... We are a part of the US

#2965 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:14 pm

jinftl wrote:Do you have a summary like this for the prior run or 2 of these models...i think the summary you have is awesome...if we could see this for a few runs would get a clear sense of trend too...which may help ease the minds of those who are in any one run's track

cycloneye wrote:Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=Corpus Christi

Corrected.

I made a correction to that and now its better.No I didnt do this until now.I should haved done it from the start.

ROCK · #2966 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=Corpus Christi

Corrected.

Yeah that looks good Luis.....

PTrackerLA · #2967 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:15 pm

Most models want to send Ike inland once it turns north. This will all come down to timing whether the north turn occurs after landfall, prior to landfall (SE TX), or a little further out which would mean landfall further east. These runs are encouraging for interests in Louisiana, but with that being said, I don't feel much better about it at the same time. Still not concerned yet, I'll be waiting for Ike to enter the GOM first.

Side note: the tropics are back! It's hot and muggy today after a nice period of fall-like weather.

jinftl · #2968 Postby **jinftl** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:17 pm

This would be really great snapshot way to compare models and runs....the 12z runs below can be the starting point....

cycloneye wrote:
jinftl wrote:Do you have a summary like this for the prior run or 2 of these models...i think the summary you have is awesome...if we could see this for a few runs would get a clear sense of trend too...which may help ease the minds of those who are in any one run's track

cycloneye wrote:Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=Corpus Christi

Corrected.

I made a correction to that and now its better.No I didnt do this until now.I should haved done it from the start.

dogblues64 · #2969 Postby **dogblues64** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:19 pm

Nothing like living in the tropics... Hope later this week I'm still wearing shorts.. Duh!

#2970 Postby **tronbunny** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:20 pm

dogblues64 wrote:To be honest.. all the mapping doesn't mean a whole lot.. we are feeling almost the winds already of Gustav.. put that in your models.. LOL! just kidding guys.. But, really, we feel like a nother part of the world and you guys are confirming it!

Dog,

I don't think any of us in Florida neglects the Keys. Y'all are durn important to us, despite the fact you're 120+ miles 'out there'.
I am a major fan of the Keys and my heart jumps every time we see a storm in your vicinity.
I have great hope Ike won't give you any more trouble than Fay or Gustav.
I'd say you guys have done your part this season.
Hang in there!

dwg71 · #2971 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:20 pm

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi (was TX LA Border)
CMC=Texas/LA Border (was Central La)
GFDL=SE Texas(Was Central La)
HWRF=SE Texas (was Central LA)
NOGAPS=SE Texas (was Central LA)
EURO=Central,SE Texas (was TX LA Border)
UKMET=Corpus Christi (was Central TX)

best i could do from memory, comparing 6z

Sabanic · #2972 Postby **Sabanic** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:21 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Trough pick up apparently...Yikes...Don't look good my fellow Texans.

What if that trough pickup happens earlier? Hmmm. Gonna be interesting for sure.

cape_escape · #2973 Postby **cape_escape** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:21 pm

dogblues64 wrote:Nothing like living in the tropics... Hope later this week I'm still wearing shorts.. Duh!

Your def in my thoughts! I feel some good gusts here in Cape Coral, I don't even want to think about what you must be feeling!

The hubby and I just took the Key West Express down there over the Lobsterfest.

Just know....I'm thinking about you guys for sure!

jinftl · #2974 Postby **jinftl** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:22 pm

seeing the 6z gives the 12z a very different feel in my mind...less about the locations and more the west trend

dwg71 wrote:Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi (was TX LA Border)
CMC=Texas/LA Border (was Central La)
GFDL=SE Texas(Was Central La)
HWRF=SE Texas (was Central LA)
NOGAPS=SE Texas (was Central LA)
EURO=Central,SE Texas (was TX LA Border)
UKMET=Corpus Christi (was Central TX)

best i could do from memory, comparing 6z

Shoshana · #2975 Postby **Shoshana** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:22 pm

When y'all say SE Texas are y'all meaning the upper Texas coast?

#2976 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:23 pm

dwg71 wrote:Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi (was TX LA Border)
CMC=Texas/LA Border (was Central La)
GFDL=SE Texas(Was Central La)
HWRF=SE Texas (was Central LA)
NOGAPS=SE Texas (was Central LA)
EURO=Central,SE Texas (was TX LA Border)
UKMET=Corpus Christi (was Central TX)

best i could do from memory, comparing 6z

Right now Im leaning to South Texas..the trough progression just looks like its not going to be enough to break the ridge down very much...good news for the north gulfcoast from Houston to Pensacola for sure!

#2977 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:24 pm

Shoshana wrote:When y'all say SE Texas are y'all meaning the upper Texas coast?

From Freeport to TEXAS/LA Border including of course Galveston.

rtd2 · #2978 Postby **rtd2** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:26 pm

dogblues64 wrote:It's great that everyone is concentrating on the long tern projections, but.. Key West is right in the path and it would be nice to see some concern of a little Island just south of Florida..!!! Thanks Guys!!

your concern is warranted but this is the first post i've seen from anyone from Key west today...You are closer to the storm than most so stay tuned for any unexpected changes

HouTXmetro · #2979 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:26 pm

Shoshana wrote:When y'all say SE Texas are y'all meaning the upper Texas coast?

Upper Texas Coast/SE Tx= Freeport/Houston area to Louisiana border
Mid Texas Coast= South of Freeport Down to Corpus area
South Texas Coast= Corpus south to Brownsville

dogblues64 · #2980 Postby **dogblues64** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:27 pm

Thanx Y'all..
It's nice to hear that.. Just wanted to sound in and be heard..!!! We are getting wind gusts already.. this is not gonna be good!

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