ATL: IKE Discussion

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littlevince
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Re: ATL IKE: Recon Discussion

#5741 Postby littlevince » Mon Sep 08, 2008 3:52 pm

Communication problems, no :?:
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Brent
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5742 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 08, 2008 3:55 pm

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

Landfall predicted between Matagorda and Freeport Saturday late morning.

Also, the advisory says the pressure is 965, so it's down from earlier(VDM at 2:30 said 970).

Image
Last edited by Brent on Mon Sep 08, 2008 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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KWT
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#5743 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 08, 2008 3:57 pm

jasons, I agree and its around this timeframe when we should be getting a very general idea of what will happen in terms of the synoptics. The ridge will be weaker on the western side which should allow the system to edge up WNW but the exact motion will determine where this ends up...
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#5744 Postby dwg71 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 3:57 pm

Pretty big shift west. Down around Matagorda.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5745 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 3:58 pm

yes they do....
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#5746 Postby HenkL » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:00 pm

I guess so, for the third time this flight.
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artist
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5747 Postby artist » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:00 pm

MBryant wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
MBryant wrote:http://C:\Documents and Settings\pvaughn\Desktop\OrangeCountyStormSurgeMap.pdf

If anybody wishes to post this image, please do.



LOL...I would but I don't have access to your hard drive. :lol:


That's strange, it's the link I found by googling Orange County Surge Map.

that is strange , when you click on the pdf it tries to download to your computer.
Here is the image of it -

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5748 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:02 pm

West shift and a big one.

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Stormcenter
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Re:

#5749 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:03 pm

dwg71 wrote:Pretty big shift west. Down around Matagorda.


They probably could have even adjusted further south per their
discussion.
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#5750 Postby dwg71 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:04 pm

They will wait to see what storm and models do before making a bigger jump.
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#5751 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:04 pm

Yep fair shift westwards, hardly surprising given the models thus far that have come out today, also worth noting the NHC give Ike well over 72hrs over the Gulf of Mexico waters, ample time to develop into a beast even if it does have inner core issues...

Going to be a long week waiting for those in Texas...
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#5752 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:05 pm

URNT12 KNHC 082045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 08/2013Z
B. 21 DEG 21 MIN N
79 DEG 29 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2806 M
D. 62 KT
E. 213 DEG 18 NM
F. 297 DEG 53 KT
G. 214 DEG 23 NM
H. 965 MB
I. 9 C/ 3054 M
J. 13 C/ 3052 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C 10-50
N. 12345/7
O. 0.2/ 7 NM
P. AF309 1209A IKE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 2022Z
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fasterdisaster
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5753 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:06 pm

Anyone else think he's intensifying?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html
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MBryant
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5754 Postby MBryant » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:08 pm

Image[/quote]

ps The water at the bottom is Sabine Lake, not the GOM.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5755 Postby Mattie » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:08 pm

From WWL New Orleans -

Ike frustrating FEMA and complicating planning

FEMA is having fits with Ike.

Officials say usually they would have a good fix on the path by this point, but the Hurricane Center is still guessing on Ike.



http://wwl.com/Ike-frustrating-FEMA-and-complicating-planning/2928056
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fasterdisaster
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#5756 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:10 pm

Is he still in an ERC?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5757 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:11 pm

Bump WNW.

Could have implications down-track.

Less over water strengthening now.
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gatorcane
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#5758 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:11 pm

not even a mention of a threat to the Gulf coast this time...

in the 11AM advisory we saw:

IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

But no mention in the 5PM EST..

instead we see:

SINCE
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.


might they be possibly be thinking a threat to Mexico south of Texas?

Hmmm.....
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5759 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:12 pm

Image

Image
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fasterdisaster
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5760 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:12 pm

Sanibel wrote:Bump WNW.

Could have implications down-track.


I think the increasing convection is giving the illusion he's moving WNW.
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